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Finland vs Serbia Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 21 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 16:30
Final 95-105
26-24 31-27 14-28 24-26
Position#34
Record1-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game83.2
Finland
vs
Serbia 🏆
Position#1
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game56.8
EuropeEuroBasketRound 5· Espoo Metro Areena
Other2023
Meetings · Finland v Serbia
21 Feb 2025
FINL95
SERB105
20 Feb 2020
FINL58
SERB80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Finland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Serbia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FinlandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFinland
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
L
81-87
81
87
-6
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Australia
#5
L
72-98
72
98
-26
no box
H25/08
World Cup
Japan
#28
L
88-98
88
98
-10
no box
A27/08
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
75-101
75
101
-26
no box
A29/08
World Cup
Cape Verde
#45
W
100-77
100
77
+23
no box
A31/08
World Cup
Venezuela
#43
W
90-75
90
75
+15
no box
H02/09
World Cup
Serbia
#1
L
61-77
61
77
-16
55avg 74
A23/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
W
89-85
89
85
+4
83avg 74
H26/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
L
83-90
83
90
-7
74avg 74
H21/11
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
L
64-81
64
81
-17
62avg 74
A24/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
21-29
19-23
19-18
21-17
19-28
14-25
18-28
15-22
31-14
27-27
15-35
22-19
17-28
16-29
20-25
28-16
26-23
23-17
23-21
13-17
35-18
19-27
23-13
20-17
14-19
17-22
10-19
23-27
19-31
30-14
17-13
25-20
23-23
15-19
20-28
21-17
19-21
13-17
11-26
167.2Avg total
80.3Scored
86.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)74.283.2157.5-9.025%
Season at home (2)86.087.5173.5-1.550%
Season away (2)62.579.0141.5-16.50%
Last 10 (10)80.386.9167.2-6.630%
Last 5 (5)77.481.6159.0-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)76.087.8163.8-11.817%
vs Similar (11)89.581.0170.5+8.582%
vs Weaker (7)84.173.4157.6+10.7100%
This opponent (Serbia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SerbiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSerbia
Date
Competition
South Sudan
#6
W
115-83
115
83
+32
no box
A30/08
World Cup
Italy
#17
L
76-78
76
78
-2
no box
H01/09
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
W
112-79
112
79
+33
no box
A03/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
W
87-68
87
68
+19
no box
A05/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
W
95-86
95
86
+9
no box
H08/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
77-83
77
83
-6
no box
A10/09
World Cup
Finland
#34
W
77-61
77
61
+16
68avg 76
H23/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
W
76-63
76
63
+13
73avg 76
A26/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
W
72-52
72
52
+20
72avg 76
A21/11
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
W
98-51
98
51
+47
104avg 76
H24/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-20
26-19
27-26
32-18
19-23
23-17
20-19
14-19
29-15
27-20
31-18
25-26
24-25
25-13
24-17
14-13
23-15
29-24
23-24
20-23
26-23
21-24
10-22
20-14
17-20
19-14
22-17
19-10
21-12
17-19
22-21
16-11
29-6
14-13
19-16
10-17
25-17
25-11
20-11
28-12
158.9Avg total
88.5Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.856.8137.5+24.0100%
Season at home (2)87.556.0143.5+31.5100%
Season away (2)74.057.5131.5+16.5100%
Last 10 (10)88.570.4158.9+18.180%
Last 5 (5)80.062.0142.0+18.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)95.086.0181.0+9.0100%
vs Similar (5)90.075.8165.8+14.260%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)86.072.2158.2+13.983%
This opponent (Finland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +6.7+6.7Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +5.2+5.2Q3Q3: -2.7-2.7Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -5.0-5.0Q4: +3.5+3.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +6.7+6.7Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +5.2+5.2Q3Q3: -2.7-2.7Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -5.0-5.0Q4: +3.5+3.5
FinlandSerbia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FinlandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H27/02
World Cup
Australia
#5
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H25/08
World Cup
Japan
#28
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A27/08
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A29/08
World Cup
Cape Verde
#45
W
54-39
54
39
+15
A31/08
World Cup
Venezuela
#43
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H02/09
World Cup
Serbia
#1
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A23/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
L
42-58
42
58
-16
H26/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
W
48-43
48
43
+5
H21/11
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A24/11
EuroBasket
85.7Avg total
43.4Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.439.682.1+2.857%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.539.783.3+3.860%-
Last 30 away (15)41.339.580.9+1.853%-
Last 10 (10)43.442.385.7+1.150%-
Last 5 (5)42.442.084.4+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)39.244.984.1-5.825%-
vs Similar (11)44.736.381.0+8.582%-
vs Weaker (7)44.435.980.3+8.671%-
This opponent (Serbia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SerbiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Sudan
#6
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A30/08
World Cup
Italy
#17
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H01/09
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
W
56-35
56
35
+21
A03/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
W
49-38
49
38
+11
A05/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H08/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A10/09
World Cup
Finland
#34
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H23/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A26/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
W
43-19
43
19
+24
A21/11
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H24/11
EuroBasket
81.9Avg total
46.9Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.235.081.2+11.390%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.036.683.6+10.493%-
Last 30 away (15)45.533.378.8+12.187%-
Last 10 (10)46.935.081.9+11.990%-
Last 5 (5)42.831.874.6+11.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)52.039.091.0+13.0100%-
vs Similar (5)47.836.884.6+11.080%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)45.734.480.1+11.292%-
This opponent (Finland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Finlandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Finland: 73.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.216.5
52.8%
50.6%33.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.09.0
28.1%
32.5%27.0
🏀 Free throws17.013.2
77.9%
71.4%13.2
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Serbiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Serbia: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.3 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.320.7
56.9%
50.6%41.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.77.7
35.4%
32.5%23.0
🏀 Free throws23.717.3
73.2%
71.4%17.3
They take 58.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/3 games with a box score before 21 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Finland
LLWLWWLLLL
Serbia
WWWWLWWWLW
#34
League position
#1
-13.2
Net rating
+39.6
101.8
Offensive rating
114.2
115.1
Defensive rating
74.6
47.4%
Effective FG%
55.5%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
37.5%
19.0%
Turnover %
16.2%
34.0%
Off. rebound %
33.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.41
28.1%
3-point %
35.4%
82.4%
Assist %
63.5%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence101.8 · 114.2Defence115.1 · 74.6Shooting47.4% · 55.5%3-point %28.1% · 35.4%Ball care19.0% · 16.2%Off. rebounds34.0% · 33.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)30% · 80%
■ Finland   ■ Serbia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Finland wins
4
Serbia wins
DateGameScore
23/02/24Serbia v Finland77-61
05/09/22Serbia v Finland100-70
30/11/20Serbia v Finland75-66
20/02/20Finland v Serbia58-80
Finlandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/11/24AGeorgia64-81
21/11/24HGeorgia83-90
26/02/24HDenmark89-85
23/02/24ASerbia61-77
02/09/23HVenezuela90-75
31/08/23ACape Verde100-77
29/08/23AGermany75-101
27/08/23AJapan88-98
25/08/23HAustralia72-98
27/02/23HGermany81-87
Serbialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/11/24HDenmark98-51
21/11/24ADenmark72-52
26/02/24AGeorgia76-63
23/02/24HFinland77-61
10/09/23AGermany77-83
08/09/23HCanada95-86
05/09/23ALithuania87-68
03/09/23ADominican Republic112-79
01/09/23HItaly76-78
30/08/23ASouth Sudan115-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Finland
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeWL50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game74.286.062.5
Allowed / game83.287.579.0
Point differential-9.0-1.5-16.5
Avg total157.5173.5141.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Serbia
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game80.887.574.0
Allowed / game56.856.057.5
Point differential+24.0+31.5+16.5
Avg total137.5143.5131.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia440100%80.856.8+24.0
2 France440100%76.863.5+13.2
3 Latvia550100%77.269.6+7.6
4 Italy54180%83.872.2+11.6
5 Slovenia54180%83.277.4+5.8
6 Croatia1411379%84.970.5+14.4
7 Lithuania43175%79.567.0+12.5
8 Greece43175%73.869.0+4.8
9 Israel43175%81.276.5+4.8
10 Estonia43175%76.873.5+3.2
11 Portugal107370%82.773.0+9.7
12 Bulgaria1510567%78.874.6+4.2
13 Germany53260%78.867.6+11.2
14 Belgium53260%76.267.2+9.0
15 North Macedonia106460%74.069.6+4.4
16 Poland106460%79.475.9+3.5
17 Turkey53260%79.276.8+2.4
18 Montenegro53260%81.479.6+1.8
19 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
20 Slovakia158753%72.371.9+0.4
21 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%87.279.8+7.5
22 Czech Republic42250%80.076.2+3.8
23 Georgia42250%75.874.5+1.2
24 Denmark189950%74.473.6+0.8
25 Great Britain42250%80.083.2-3.2
26 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
27 Spain52340%70.872.6-1.8
28 Iceland52340%75.079.4-4.4
29 Sweden52340%73.079.6-6.6
30 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
31 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
32 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
33 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
34 Netherlands41325%79.284.5-5.2
35 Finland41325%74.283.2-9.0
36 Hungary51420%71.280.8-9.6
37 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
38 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
39 Cyprus161156%63.680.8-17.2
40 Ukraine5050%73.884.8-11.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Finland2631142495
Serbia24272826105
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