Florida State will host Florida on 10 November 2026 in a matchup that the Pythia model deems a clear favour for the Gators, who hold a 74% chance of winning against the Seminoles' 26%. Florida's season so far is spotless, 2-0 with an average of 82.5 points scored and only 62.0 points allowed, placing them 78th in the league, while Florida State sits at 251st with a 1-1 record, 80.0 points scored and 90.0 points allowed. The Seminoles have won three of their last five games, including a 91-68 victory over Troy at home, but have also suffered a 69-112 loss to Florida A&M, whereas the Gators have secured two home wins, 88-57 over Jacksonville and 77-67 over Miami, and a narrow 72-73 defeat to Iowa. Historically, Florida has dominated the series 5-1, most recently beating Florida State 78-76 on 11 November 2025. Pythia projects a 77-85 scoreline for the game, with a total of 161.8 points; the home team's 10.5-point line carries a 61% chance of covering, while the 164.5-point total has a 43% over probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The Seminoles' recent 91-68 win suggests they will keep the game close, but the Gators' superior defensive record gives them the edge.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Florida State winLost
25.5%fair 3.92
Best odds4.67
Implied20.6%
Edge+4.9pp
Florida winWon
74.5%fair 1.34
Best odds1.23
Implied79.4%
Edge-4.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 160Actual: Under 160
Over 160
53.8%
@ 1.40-12.5pp
Under 160
46.2%
@ 2.75+12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 165 · main lineActual: Under 165
Over 165
41.5%
@ 1.91-8.5pp
Under 165
58.5%
@ 2.05+8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 170Actual: Under 170
Over 170
30.0%
@ 2.25-11.1pp
Under 170
70.0%
@ 1.57+11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
📊 3. Team Totals
Florida State total 73Actual: Florida State under 73
Over 73
65.9%
Under 73
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida State total 77 · main lineActual: Florida State under 77
Over 77
50.1%
@ 1.85-0.0pp
Under 77
49.9%
@ 1.86+0.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Florida State total 81Actual: Florida State under 81
Over 81
34.5%
Under 81
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida total 83Actual: Florida under 83
Over 83
56.7%
Under 83
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida total 87 · main lineActual: Florida under 87
Over 87
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 87
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Florida total 90.5Actual: Florida under 90.5
Over 90.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 90.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Florida State +6Actual: Florida -6
FLOR +6
44.0%
@ 2.50+6.5pp
FLOR -6
56.0%
@ 1.50-6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Bet365
2.50
FLOR
Bet365
1.50
Spread Florida State +9 · main linePush
FLOR +9
55.6%
@ 1.95+4.6pp
FLOR -9
44.4%
@ 1.96-4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
FLOR
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Spread Florida State +12Actual: Florida State +12
FLOR +12
66.4%
@ 1.58+5.8pp
FLOR -12
33.6%
@ 2.43-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
FLOR
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Florida StateFlorida
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H17/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A28/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A05/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H07/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A12/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#321
L
27-54
27
54
-27
H03/11
NCAA
Troy
#296
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H07/11
NCAA
74.7Avg total
38.3Scored
36.4Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 77.5
Last 30 (30)
37.4
37.0
74.4
+0.4
50%
33%
Last 30 at home (18)
37.1
35.7
72.8
+1.4
56%
33%
Last 30 away (12)
37.8
39.0
76.8
-1.2
42%
33%
Last 10 (10)
38.3
36.4
74.7
+1.9
60%
30%
Last 5 (5)
39.8
36.4
76.2
+3.4
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)
33.3
43.3
76.7
-10.0
17%
42%
vs Similar (14)
40.0
33.6
73.6
+6.4
71%
36%
vs Weaker (4)
40.5
29.8
70.2
+10.8
75%
0%
This opponent (Florida) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 172
74.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Under 173
76.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 171
72.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 173.5
76.4%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 174
77.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Under 170.5
70.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
74.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
78.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Under 171.5
72.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Under 176.5
81.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Florida State +17.5
81.3%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Florida State +14
72.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Florida State +15
75.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Florida State +16
78.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 181.5
88.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Florida State +14.5
73.6%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Florida State +13.5
70.6%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Florida State +16.5
78.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Florida State +17
80.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Florida State +15.5
76.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Florida State +19.5
85.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Florida State under 84.5
76.3%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.7%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Florida State under 85.5
79.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Florida State under 97.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Florida State under 95.5
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Florida State under 93.5
93.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Florida State under 83.5
73.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Florida State +24.5
92.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Florida State under 88.5
86.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Florida State under 82.5
70.1%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Florida State under 87.5
84.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Florida State under 91.5
91.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Florida State under 89.5
88.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 179.5
85.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Florida +10.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Florida over 67.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Florida over 69.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Florida over 68.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Florida over 70.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 139.5
91.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Florida over 71.5
90.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Florida (regulation)
72.0%
1.22
Marathon Bet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Florida over 72.5
88.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Florida State over 70.5
73.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Florida +4.5
84.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 141.5
89.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Florida over 73.5
86.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Florida -1.5
72.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Florida over 74.5
84.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Florida -2
71.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Over 144.5
85.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Florida State over 69.5
77.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Florida State over 71.5
70.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Florida over 76.5
78.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Florida win
74.5%
1.20
Marathon Bet
1.23
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
-4.9pp
Won
Florida over 75.5
81.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Over 146.5
82.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Over 149.5
77.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Florida over 77.5
76.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Florida over 78.5
72.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Over 151.5
73.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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