Florida faces Miami (FL) in a November 2, 2026 NCAA contest, with the Pythia model designating Florida as the clear favourite, assigning it a 77% chance to win versus Miami's 23%; the model's confidence stems from Florida's superior projected 80 points to Miami's 72, a projected total of 151.7, and a 61% probability that Florida will cover the home line of -5.5. Florida's recent form shows a 3-2 run in its last five games, including a 114-55 victory over Prairie View A&M and a narrow 72-73 loss to Iowa, while Miami's last five feature two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 80-66 win over Missouri and a 69-79 loss to Purdue. Historically, Florida has dominated the two meetings, winning both, most recently 82-68 on November 16, 2025. The Pythia model projects a final score of 80-72, with a 32% chance of the total exceeding 159.0 and a 4% likelihood of overtime. Florida's 80 points will outpace Miami's 72, and the game will likely finish below the over line.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 88.8 | 71.8 | 160.6 | +17.0 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.0 | 71.8 | 154.8 | +11.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (1) | 66.0 | 67.0 | 133.0 | -1.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker (29) | 88.0 | 72.1 | 160.1 | +15.9 | 79% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.4 | 74.2 | 150.6 | +2.2 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.6 | 78.8 | 154.4 | -3.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (9) | 72.7 | 77.4 | 150.1 | -4.8 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (21) | 83.0 | 69.1 | 152.1 | +13.9 | 90% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 75.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.1 | 32.4 | 73.5 | +8.7 | 73% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 42.1 | 32.6 | 74.7 | +9.5 | 84% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (11) | 39.5 | 32.0 | 71.5 | +7.5 | 55% | 27% |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.9 | 33.0 | 75.9 | +9.9 | 70% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.2 | 32.2 | 74.4 | +10.0 | 60% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (1) | 24.0 | 36.0 | 60.0 | -12.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Weaker (29) | 41.7 | 32.3 | 74.0 | +9.4 | 76% | 45% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 75.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.3 | 34.9 | 73.2 | +3.4 | 57% | 47% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 39.2 | 35.3 | 74.5 | +3.9 | 47% | 47% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 37.1 | 34.4 | 71.5 | +2.7 | 69% | 46% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.1 | 34.1 | 69.2 | +1.0 | 60% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.8 | 37.2 | 70.0 | -4.4 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (9) | 35.6 | 38.3 | 73.9 | -2.8 | 44% | 56% |
| vs Weaker (21) | 39.5 | 33.4 | 72.9 | +6.0 | 62% | 43% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) under 78 | 74.0% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +24.0pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 77 | 70.7% | 1.84 | 1.85 | 1.83 | - | - | - | +20.4pp | Won |
| Under 162 | 74.2% | 1.66 | 1.73 | 1.65 | 1.60 | - | - | +19.3pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 78.5 | 74.8% | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 1.60 | - | - | +19.1pp | Won |
| Under 162.5 | 74.7% | 1.61 | 1.69 | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | +18.6pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 77.5 | 71.7% | 1.81 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.77 | +18.4pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 81.5 | 82.9% | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +18.3pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 80.5 | 80.4% | 1.48 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.42 | - | - | +17.9pp | Won |
| Under 160 | 70.1% | 1.79 | 1.81 | 1.81 | 1.74 | - | - | +17.6pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 79.5 | 77.7% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +17.5pp | Won |
| Under 161 | 72.2% | 1.71 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.68 | - | - | +17.0pp | Won |
| Under 160.5 | 70.8% | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.77 | 1.73 | +17.0pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 83.5 | 87.2% | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +16.9pp | Won |
| Under 167 | 83.0% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +16.7pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 82.5 | 85.1% | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +16.6pp | Won |
| Under 161.5 | 72.8% | 1.69 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 1.68 | 1.65 | 1.64 | +16.6pp | Won |
| Under 167.5 | 83.2% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +16.5pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 84.5 | 89.0% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +15.8pp | Won |
| Under 163 | 76.2% | 1.54 | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | +15.7pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 76.6% | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +15.6pp | Won |
| Under 164 | 78.0% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +15.5pp | Won |
| Under 168 | 84.4% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +15.5pp | Won |
| Under 165 | 79.7% | 1.43 | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | +14.8pp | Won |
| Under 168.5 | 84.7% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +14.7pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 78.4% | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +14.6pp | Won |
| Under 166 | 81.4% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +14.4pp | Won |
| Under 165.5 | 80.1% | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Won |
| Under 166.5 | 81.7% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +13.7pp | Won |
| Under 170.5 | 87.3% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +12.8pp | Won |
| Florida (regulation) | 74.4% | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.42 | - | - | - | +11.7pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) under 86.5 | 92.0% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +11.6pp | Won |
| Florida -2 | 73.5% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +11.0pp | Won |
| Florida -1.5 | 74.5% | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +10.8pp | Won |
| Florida -2.5 | 70.8% | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.53 | - | - | - | +10.6pp | Won |
| Florida +4.5 | 85.7% | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +10.4pp | Won |
| Florida -1 | 76.3% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +10.2pp | Won |
| Florida under 87.5 | 77.3% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +9.9pp | Won |
| Florida under 89.5 | 82.8% | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +9.4pp | Won |
| Florida +2.5 | 81.6% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +9.3pp | Won |
| Florida +3.5 | 83.6% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Won |
| Under 175.5 | 92.3% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Won |
| Florida under 86.5 | 74.2% | 1.41 | 1.44 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Florida under 85.5 | 70.8% | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Florida +1.5 | 78.8% | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Florida +1 | 78.4% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +8.9pp | Won |
| Florida +2 | 81.1% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +8.6pp | Won |
| Florida under 88.5 | 80.2% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +8.6pp | Won |
| Florida win | 76.8% | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | +8.0pp | Won |
| Florida under 91.5 | 87.4% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +7.3pp | Won |
| Florida +9.5 | 93.2% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +6.6pp | Won |
| Florida +14.5 | 96.9% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 95.9% | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +5.4pp | - |
| Florida +19.5 | 98.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +5.0pp | Won |
| Florida over 64.5 | 93.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.2pp | Won |
| Florida over 62.5 | 95.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| Florida over 63.5 | 94.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Won |
| Florida over 65.5 | 92.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +0.9pp | Won |
| Florida over 66.5 | 90.9% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Florida over 67.5 | 89.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -0.4pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) +20.5 | 85.8% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -0.8pp | Won |
| Florida over 68.5 | 87.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -1.4pp | Won |
| Florida over 69.5 | 85.2% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -2.8pp | Won |
| Florida over 70.5 | 82.8% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -3.3pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 58.5 | 90.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -3.5pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 59.5 | 88.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -3.9pp | Won |
| Florida over 72.5 | 77.3% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -4.2pp | Won |
| Florida over 71.5 | 80.1% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -4.3pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) +15.5 | 74.0% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | -4.8pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 60.5 | 86.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.0pp | Won |
| Florida over 73.5 | 74.2% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -6.3pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 61.5 | 84.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -6.8pp | Won |
| Over 135.5 | 83.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.5pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 62.5 | 81.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -9.0pp | Won |
| Florida over 74.5 | 70.9% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -9.3pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 63.5 | 78.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -10.0pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 64.5 | 75.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -13.0pp | Won |
| Miami (FL) over 65.5 | 72.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -13.6pp | Won |
| Over 140.5 | 75.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -14.0pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17/11/25 | Florida v Miami (FL) | 82-68 |
| 22/11/19 | Florida v Miami (FL) | 78-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | H | Iowa | 72-73 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Prairie View A&M | 114-55 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Vanderbilt | 74-91 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Kentucky | 71-63 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Kentucky | 84-77 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Mississippi St. | 108-74 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Arkansas | 111-77 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Texas | 84-71 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Ole Miss | 94-75 |
| 18/02/26 | H | South Carolina | 76-62 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | A | Purdue | 69-79 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Missouri | 80-66 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Virginia | 62-84 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Louisville | 78-73 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Louisville | 89-92 |
| 05/03/26 | A | SMU Mustangs | 77-69 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Boston College | 76-54 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Florida State | 83-73 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Virginia | 83-86 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Virginia Tech | 67-66 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 159 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 159 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 110.0 | 56.0 | +54.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 47.0 | +49.0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 51.0 | +46.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 117.0 | 73.0 | +44.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 55.0 | +39.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 113.0 | 76.0 | +37.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 53.0 | +37.0 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 46.0 | +32.0 | |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 54.0 | +28.0 | |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 78.0 | +21.0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 74.0 | +21.0 | |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 72.0 | 57.0 | +15.0 | |
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 63.0 | 49.0 | +14.0 | |
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 | |
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 98.0 | +5.0 | |
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 87.0 | +2.0 | |
| 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 72.0 | +2.0 | |
| 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 87.0 | 89.0 | -2.0 | |
| 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 74.0 | -2.0 | |
| 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 98.0 | 103.0 | -5.0 | |
| 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 84.0 | -8.0 | |
| 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 63.0 | -14.0 | |
| 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 72.0 | -15.0 | |
| 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 78.0 | 99.0 | -21.0 | |
| 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 74.0 | 95.0 | -21.0 | |
| 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 54.0 | 82.0 | -28.0 | |
| 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 64.0 | 94.0 | -30.0 | |
| 29 | Carnegie Mellon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 46.0 | 78.0 | -32.0 |
| 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 113.0 | -37.0 | |
| 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 53.0 | 90.0 | -37.0 | |
| 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 55.0 | 94.0 | -39.0 | |
| 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 117.0 | -44.0 | |
| 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 51.0 | 97.0 | -46.0 | |
| 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 | |
| 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 56.0 | 110.0 | -54.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 31 | 77 | |
| 36 | 31 | 67 |
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the operation of our website.
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to build a profile of you.
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they will not be adjusted to your interests.