PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami (FL) vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 89-92
37-46 52-46
Position#38
Record24-6
FormWLWWW
Points / game82.5
Allowed / game70.0
Miami (FL)
USA
vs
Louisville 🏆
USA
Position#53
Record21-9
FormLWLLW
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game71.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Miami (FL) v Louisville
12 Mar 2026
MIAM78
LOUI73
07 Mar 2026
MIAM89
LOUI92
10 Jan 2024
MIAM71
LOUI80
11 Feb 2023
MIAM93
LOUI85
16 Jan 2021
MIAM78
LOUI72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami (FL) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami (FL)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
W
79-70
79
70
+9
H29/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
85-86
85
86
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
74-68
74
68
+6
A07/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
75-66
75
66
+9
H11/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
77-76
77
76
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
83-86
83
86
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
83-73
83
73
+10
A25/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
76-54
76
54
+22
H28/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
77-69
77
69
+8
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-40
44-30
44-45
41-41
34-33
40-35
43-40
32-26
37-42
40-34
31-34
36-32
44-39
39-47
38-32
45-41
36-19
40-35
38-31
39-38
149.0Avg total
77.6Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)82.570.0152.5+12.580%
Season at home (18)86.368.0154.3+18.383%
Season away (12)76.873.0149.8+3.875%
Last 10 (10)77.671.4149.0+6.280%
Last 5 (5)77.269.6146.8+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)68.082.0150.0-14.00%
vs Similar ◀ (5)71.273.8145.0-2.640%
vs Weaker (24)85.568.7154.2+16.892%
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
88-74
88
74
+14
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
88-80
88
80
+8
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
118-77
118
77
+41
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
82-71
82
71
+11
A14/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
85-95
85
95
-10
A18/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
87-70
87
70
+17
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H04/03
NCAA
1H
2H
44-47
44-27
38-32
38-33
43-34
45-46
56-36
62-41
34-34
48-37
49-52
36-43
42-31
45-39
38-39
36-38
35-38
40-42
39-21
38-41
160.1Avg total
85.0Scored
75.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)85.771.9157.6+13.870%
Season at home (18)90.768.1158.8+22.689%
Season away (12)78.277.6155.8+0.642%
Last 10 (10)85.075.1160.1+9.970%
Last 5 (5)79.676.8156.4+2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.583.5146.0-21.00%
vs Similar ◀ (4)71.582.0153.5-10.50%
vs Weaker (24)90.069.2159.2+20.788%
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +2.5+2.51st half: +5.4+5.42nd half2nd half: +3.7+3.72nd half: +4.5+4.5
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +2.5+2.51st half: +5.4+5.42nd half2nd half: +3.7+3.72nd half: +4.5+4.5
Miami (FL)Louisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Miami (FL)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H29/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A07/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H11/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A25/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
36-19
36
19
+17
H28/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A05/03
NCAA
73.5Avg total
38.0Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.334.875.0+5.563%-
Last 30 at home (18)42.235.277.4+7.161%-
Last 30 away (12)37.334.271.5+3.267%-
Last 10 (10)38.035.573.5+2.560%-
Last 5 (5)37.431.068.4+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)29.039.068.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)36.637.073.6-0.460%-
vs Weaker (24)41.534.175.6+7.467%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
56-36
56
36
+20
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A14/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
49-52
49
52
-3
A18/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H04/03
NCAA
78.2Avg total
41.8Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.933.175.1+8.860%-
Last 30 at home (18)45.130.875.9+14.383%-
Last 30 away (12)37.236.673.8+0.625%-
Last 10 (10)41.836.478.2+5.450%-
Last 5 (5)40.636.276.8+4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.538.075.5-0.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)30.538.268.8-7.80%-
vs Weaker (24)44.231.976.1+12.371%-
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami (FL) wins
3
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
08/02/25Louisville v Miami (FL)88-78
11/01/24Miami (FL) v Louisville71-80
12/02/23Miami (FL) v Louisville93-85
04/12/22Louisville v Miami (FL)53-80
17/02/22Louisville v Miami (FL)63-70
17/01/21Miami (FL) v Louisville78-72
08/01/20Louisville v Miami (FL)74-58
Miami (FL)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26ASMU Mustangs77-69
28/02/26HBoston College76-54
25/02/26AFlorida State83-73
21/02/26AVirginia83-86
18/02/26HVirginia Tech67-66
14/02/26ANC State77-76
11/02/26HNorth Carolina75-66
07/02/26ABoston College74-68
31/01/26HCalifornia85-86
29/01/26HStanford79-70
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/26HSyracuse77-62
28/02/26AClemson75-80
24/02/26ANorth Carolina74-77
21/02/26HGeorgia Tech87-70
18/02/26ASMU Mustangs85-95
14/02/26ABaylor82-71
10/02/26HNC State118-77
07/02/26AWake Forest88-80
05/02/26HNotre Dame76-65
31/01/26HSMU Mustangs88-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami (FL)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW80%
HomeWLWWW83%
AwayWWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %80%83%75%
Points / game82.586.376.8
Allowed / game70.068.073.0
Point differential+12.5+18.3+3.8
Avg total152.5154.3149.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%61%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)33% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW70%
HomeWWWWW89%
AwayWWLLL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %70%89%42%
Points / game85.790.778.2
Allowed / game71.968.177.6
Point differential+13.8+22.6+0.6
Avg total157.6158.8155.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%78%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)-0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3028293%83.262.5+20.6
2 Virginia3227584%80.069.4+10.6
3 Miami (FL)3024680%82.570.0+12.5
4 North Carolina3024680%80.470.9+9.6
5 Clemson3122971%74.566.3+8.2
6 Louisville3021970%85.771.9+13.8
7 California3021970%77.772.3+5.4
8 NC State30191163%83.575.7+7.8
9 SMU Mustangs30191163%85.278.0+7.3
10 Stanford30191163%76.172.6+3.5
11 Virginia Tech31191261%78.574.2+4.2
12 Florida State30161453%79.677.5+2.1
13 Wake Forest30151550%78.877.0+1.8
14 Syracuse30151550%75.474.0+1.4
15 Notre Dame31131842%74.575.3-0.9
16 Pittsburgh30111937%70.171.3-1.2
17 Boston College31112035%67.470.7-3.3
18 Georgia Tech31112035%73.877.4-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Miami (FL)375289
Louisville464692
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.