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Miami (FL) vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 78-73
37-38 41-35
Position#38
Record24-7
FormLWWWL
Points / game82.7
Allowed / game70.7
Miami (FL) 🏆
USA
vs
Louisville
USA
Position#53
Record23-9
FormLLWWW
Points / game85.1
Allowed / game72.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Miami (FL) v Louisville
12 Mar 2026
MIAM78
LOUI73
07 Mar 2026
MIAM89
LOUI92
10 Jan 2024
MIAM71
LOUI80
11 Feb 2023
MIAM93
LOUI85
16 Jan 2021
MIAM78
LOUI72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami (FL) winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami (FL)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#79
L
85-86
85
86
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
74-68
74
68
+6
A07/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
75-66
75
66
+9
H11/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
77-76
77
76
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
83-86
83
86
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
83-73
83
73
+10
A25/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
76-54
76
54
+22
H28/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
77-69
77
69
+8
A05/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
89-92
89
92
-3
H07/03
NCAA
1H
2H
44-45
41-41
34-33
40-35
43-40
32-26
37-42
40-34
31-34
36-32
44-39
39-47
38-32
45-41
36-19
40-35
38-31
39-38
37-46
52-46
152.2Avg total
78.6Scored
73.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)82.770.7153.4+12.077%
Season at home (19)86.569.3155.7+17.279%
Season away (12)76.873.0149.8+3.875%
Last 10 (10)78.673.6152.2+5.070%
Last 5 (5)81.674.8156.4+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)68.082.0150.0-14.00%
vs Similar ◀ (6)74.276.8151.0-2.733%
vs Weaker (23)85.468.7154.1+16.791%
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#190
W
88-80
88
80
+8
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
118-77
118
77
+41
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
82-71
82
71
+11
A14/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
85-95
85
95
-10
A18/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
87-70
87
70
+17
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
92-89
92
89
+3
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
43-34
45-46
56-36
62-41
34-34
48-37
49-52
36-43
42-31
45-39
38-39
36-38
35-38
40-42
39-21
38-41
46-37
46-52
26-26
36-32
159.9Avg total
84.0Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)85.172.0157.1+13.172%
Season at home (19)89.267.6156.7+21.689%
Season away (13)79.278.5157.7+0.846%
Last 10 (10)84.075.9159.9+8.170%
Last 5 (5)76.073.2149.2+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.583.5146.0-21.00%
vs Similar ◀ (5)75.683.4159.0-7.820%
vs Weaker (23)87.469.8157.2+17.787%
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.1+2.11st half: +6.0+6.02nd half2nd half: +2.9+2.92nd half: +2.1+2.1
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +2.1+2.11st half: +6.0+6.02nd half2nd half: +2.9+2.92nd half: +2.1+2.1
Miami (FL)Louisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Miami (FL)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#79
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A07/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H11/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A25/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
36-19
36
19
+17
H28/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A05/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H07/03
NCAA
74.3Avg total
38.2Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.135.175.3+5.060%-
Last 30 at home (18)42.035.877.8+6.256%-
Last 30 away (12)37.334.271.5+3.267%-
Last 10 (10)38.236.174.3+2.160%-
Last 5 (5)38.633.472.0+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)29.039.068.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)36.738.575.2-1.850%-
vs Weaker (23)41.534.175.6+7.465%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#190
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
56-36
56
36
+20
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A14/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
49-52
49
52
-3
A18/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
26-26
26
26
+0
H11/03
NCAA
75.6Avg total
40.8Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.533.674.1+7.057%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.631.273.8+11.476%-
Last 30 away (13)37.836.674.5+1.231%-
Last 10 (10)40.834.875.6+6.050%-
Last 5 (5)36.832.269.0+4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.538.075.5-0.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)33.638.071.6-4.420%-
vs Weaker (23)42.332.274.5+10.165%-
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami (FL) wins
4
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
07/03/26Miami (FL) v Louisville89-92
08/02/25Louisville v Miami (FL)88-78
11/01/24Miami (FL) v Louisville71-80
12/02/23Miami (FL) v Louisville93-85
04/12/22Louisville v Miami (FL)53-80
17/02/22Louisville v Miami (FL)63-70
17/01/21Miami (FL) v Louisville78-72
08/01/20Louisville v Miami (FL)74-58
Miami (FL)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HLouisville89-92
05/03/26ASMU Mustangs77-69
28/02/26HBoston College76-54
25/02/26AFlorida State83-73
21/02/26AVirginia83-86
18/02/26HVirginia Tech67-66
14/02/26ANC State77-76
11/02/26HNorth Carolina75-66
07/02/26ABoston College74-68
31/01/26HCalifornia85-86
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HSMU Mustangs62-58
07/03/26AMiami (FL)92-89
04/03/26HSyracuse77-62
28/02/26AClemson75-80
24/02/26ANorth Carolina74-77
21/02/26HGeorgia Tech87-70
18/02/26ASMU Mustangs85-95
14/02/26ABaylor82-71
10/02/26HNC State118-77
07/02/26AWake Forest88-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami (FL)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL77%
HomeLWWWL79%
AwayWWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311912
Win %77%79%75%
Points / game82.786.576.8
Allowed / game70.769.373.0
Point differential+12.0+17.2+3.8
Avg total153.4155.7149.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%58%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)25% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW72%
HomeWWWWW89%
AwayWLLLW46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321913
Win %72%89%46%
Points / game85.189.279.2
Allowed / game72.067.678.5
Point differential+13.1+21.6+0.8
Avg total157.1156.7157.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%74%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)100% (1)25% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3129294%82.962.5+20.5
2 Virginia3328585%80.169.6+10.5
3 Miami (FL)3124777%82.770.7+12.0
4 North Carolina3124777%79.871.0+8.8
5 Louisville3223972%85.172.0+13.1
6 Clemson3223972%74.466.2+8.2
7 California32211166%77.973.2+4.6
8 Stanford32201262%76.072.7+3.3
9 NC State33201361%83.776.5+7.2
10 SMU Mustangs33201361%84.277.6+6.6
11 Virginia Tech32191359%78.874.9+3.9
12 Florida State32181456%80.477.9+2.5
13 Wake Forest33171652%78.877.1+1.8
14 Syracuse32151747%75.074.2+0.8
15 Notre Dame31131842%74.575.3-0.9
16 Pittsburgh33132039%70.571.8-1.3
17 Boston College31112035%67.470.7-3.3
18 Georgia Tech31112035%73.877.4-3.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Miami (FL)374178
Louisville383573
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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