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Frayles de Guasave vs Rayos de Hermosillo Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 09 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 03:15
Final 85-99
23-25 18-17 21-27 23-30
Position#10
Record5-11
FormWLLLL
Points / game84.6
Allowed / game94.0
vs
Position#7
Record4-12
FormLWLLW
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game89.9
MexicoCIBACOPA· Gimnasio Luis Estrada Medina
Other2025
Meetings · Frayles de Guasave v Rayos de Hermosillo
09 Apr 2025
FRAY74
RAYO100
08 Apr 2025
FRAY85
RAYO99
06 Mar 2024
FRAY90
RAYO92
05 Mar 2024
FRAY81
RAYO83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Frayles de Guasave winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Rayos de Hermosillo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Frayles de GuasaveMexicoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGuasave
Date
Competition
Astros
#1
L
88-110
88
110
-22
74avg 80
A19/03
CIBACOPA
Astros
#1
L
68-97
68
97
-29
57avg 80
A20/03
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
W
93-86
93
86
+7
88avg 80
H22/03
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
L
75-90
75
90
-15
57avg 80
H23/03
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
L
71-87
71
87
-16
68avg 80
A29/03
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
W
80-74
80
74
+6
76avg 80
A30/03
CIBACOPA
Caballeros de Culiacan
#6
L
92-94
92
94
-2
85avg 80
H02/04
CIBACOPA
Caballeros de Culiacan
#6
L
82-93
82
93
-11
72avg 80
H03/04
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
L
88-95
88
95
-7
73avg 80
A05/04
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
L
90-92 OT
90
92
-2
75avg 80
A06/04
CIBACOPA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-32
19-22
21-25
23-31
19-20
16-21
18-25
15-31
26-19
25-25
21-22
21-20
14-19
16-26
22-23
23-22
11-17
24-19
17-24
19-27
13-21
23-11
20-20
24-22
19-30
29-24
26-16
18-24
31-19
19-21
20-24
12-29
19-21
19-23
30-26
20-25
16-13
19-18
25-17
18-30
174.5Avg total
82.7Scored
91.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)84.694.0178.6-9.431%
Season at home (8)86.589.8176.2-3.250%
Season away (8)82.898.2181.0-15.512%
Last 10 (10)82.791.8174.5-9.120%
Last 5 (5)86.489.6176.0-3.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)90.9101.4192.3-10.427%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Rayos de Hermosillo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Rayos de HermosilloMexicoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHermosillo
Date
Competition
Angeles CDMX
#2
L
99-102
99
102
-3
94avg 82
H22/03
CIBACOPA
Angeles CDMX
#2
W
96-86
96
86
+10
91avg 82
H23/03
CIBACOPA
Astros
#1
L
74-105
74
105
-31
68avg 82
H26/03
CIBACOPA
Astros
#1
L
76-86
76
86
-10
70avg 82
H27/03
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
L
71-85
71
85
-14
66avg 82
A29/03
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
L
78-88
78
88
-10
69avg 82
A30/03
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
W
74-73
74
73
+1
65avg 82
H02/04
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
L
75-94
75
94
-19
66avg 82
H03/04
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
L
88-96
88
96
-8
75avg 82
H05/04
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
W
87-81
87
81
+6
80avg 82
H06/04
CIBACOPA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-28
25-26
22-26
34-22
24-31
27-19
20-22
25-14
21-25
19-25
17-27
17-28
19-17
16-19
15-27
26-23
15-24
14-19
19-22
23-20
19-16
24-28
13-18
22-26
11-17
22-18
16-22
25-16
14-30
24-17
23-18
14-29
19-22
28-26
25-25
16-23
24-21
23-20
18-22
22-18
171.4Avg total
81.8Scored
89.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)80.189.9170.0-9.825%
Season at home (10)82.089.2171.2-7.230%
Season away (6)77.091.0168.0-14.017%
Last 10 (10)81.889.6171.4-7.830%
Last 5 (5)80.486.4166.8-6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)89.189.5178.6-0.460%
vs Similar (20)83.588.3171.8-4.840%
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Frayles de Guasave) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -4.1-4.1Q4Q4: -6.8-6.8Q4: +0.5+0.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.8-1.8Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -4.1-4.1Q4Q4: -6.8-6.8Q4: +0.5+0.5
Frayles de GuasaveRayos de Hermosillo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Frayles de GuasaveLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astros
#1
L
44-54
44
54
-10
A19/03
CIBACOPA
Astros
#1
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A20/03
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H22/03
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H23/03
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A29/03
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A30/03
CIBACOPA
Caballeros de Culiacan
#6
L
48-54
48
54
-6
H02/04
CIBACOPA
Caballeros de Culiacan
#6
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H03/04
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A05/04
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
W
35-31
35
31
+4
A06/04
CIBACOPA
82.3Avg total
40.2Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.746.988.5-5.227%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.849.394.1-4.631%-
Last 30 away (14)38.144.182.2-5.921%-
Last 10 (10)40.242.182.3-1.940%-
Last 5 (5)41.440.281.6+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)41.746.988.5-5.227%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Rayos de Hermosillo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Rayos de HermosilloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Angeles CDMX
#2
L
43-54
43
54
-11
H22/03
CIBACOPA
Angeles CDMX
#2
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H23/03
CIBACOPA
Astros
#1
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H26/03
CIBACOPA
Astros
#1
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H27/03
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A29/03
CIBACOPA
Venados de Mazatlan
#9
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A30/03
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H02/04
CIBACOPA
Halcones de Obregon
#3
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H03/04
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H05/04
CIBACOPA
Pioneros de Los Mochis
#8
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H06/04
CIBACOPA
85.4Avg total
40.6Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.743.786.4-1.140%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.541.484.9+2.253%-
Last 30 away (13)41.546.888.4-5.323%-
Last 10 (10)40.644.885.4-4.220%-
Last 5 (5)41.643.084.6-1.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)44.143.487.5+0.750%-
vs Similar (20)42.043.985.8-1.935%-
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Frayles de Guasave) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Frayles de Guasavetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Frayles de Guasave: 90.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 90.2 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.625.4
55.7%
53.3%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.19.0
35.9%
35.5%27.0
🏀 Free throws18.812.9
68.6%
73.3%12.9
They take 70.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rayos de Hermosillotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Rayos de Hermosillo: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 90.2 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.121.7
51.5%
53.3%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.68.8
34.4%
35.5%26.4
🏀 Free throws16.111.8
73.3%
73.3%11.8
They take 67.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Frayles de Guasave
LLLLWLLWLL
Rayos de Hermosillo
WLLWLLLLWL
#10
League position
#7
-6.8
Net rating
-8.2
107.9
Offensive rating
101.8
114.7
Defensive rating
110.1
55.0%
Effective FG%
51.6%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
16.5%
Turnover %
19.1%
23.4%
Off. rebound %
26.0%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.9%
3-point %
34.4%
46.8%
Assist %
57.4%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence107.9 · 101.8Defence114.7 · 110.1Shooting55.0% · 51.6%3-point %35.9% · 34.4%Ball care16.5% · 19.1%Off. rebounds23.4% · 26.0%Free throws0.27 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)20% · 30%
■ Frayles de Guasave   ■ Rayos de Hermosillo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Frayles de Guasave wins
3
Rayos de Hermosillo wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/04/25AVenados de Mazatlan90-92 OT
05/04/25AVenados de Mazatlan88-95
03/04/25HCaballeros de Culiacan82-93
02/04/25HCaballeros de Culiacan92-94
30/03/25AHalcones de Obregon80-74
29/03/25AHalcones de Obregon71-87
23/03/25HPioneros de Los Mochis75-90
22/03/25HPioneros de Los Mochis93-86
20/03/25AAstros68-97
19/03/25AAstros88-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/04/25HPioneros de Los Mochis87-81
05/04/25HPioneros de Los Mochis88-96
03/04/25HHalcones de Obregon75-94
02/04/25HHalcones de Obregon74-73
30/03/25AVenados de Mazatlan78-88
29/03/25AVenados de Mazatlan71-85
27/03/25HAstros76-86
26/03/25HAstros74-105
23/03/25HAngeles CDMX96-86
22/03/25HAngeles CDMX99-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Frayles de Guasave
CIBACOPA 2025
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL31%
HomeWWLLL50%
AwayLLWLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %31%50%12%
Points / game84.686.582.8
Allowed / game94.089.898.2
Point differential-9.4-3.2-15.5
Avg total178.6176.2181.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %6%0%12%
Rayos de Hermosillo
CIBACOPA 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW25%
HomeLWLLW30%
AwayLWLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16106
Win %25%30%17%
Points / game80.182.077.0
Allowed / game89.989.291.0
Point differential-9.8-7.2-14.0
Avg total170.0171.2168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%10%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astros1815383%99.187.3+11.8
2 Angeles CDMX1610662%104.797.2+7.4
3 Pioneros de Los Mochis169756%90.290.4-0.1
4 Zonkeys de Tijuana1810856%88.988.1+0.8
5 Caballeros de Culiacan178947%87.588.4-0.9
6 Venados de Mazatlan178947%86.187.2-1.1
7 Ostioneros de Guaymas167944%92.292.1+0.2
8 Halcones de Obregon167944%86.687.0-0.4
9 Frayles de Guasave1651131%84.694.0-9.4
10 Rayos de Hermosillo1641225%80.189.9-9.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Frayles de Guasave2318212385
Rayos de Hermosillo2517273099
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