Fresno State will host UC Riverside on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Fresno State as the favourite and projecting a 71% chance of a home win and a 77-71 scoreline that totals 148.2 points, while UC Riverside has a 29% chance of victory; the home team's spread line is -5.5 with a 54% probability of covering, and the over/under line of 149.5 carries a 46% over probability, with a 5% chance of overtime. Fresno State comes into the game with a 2-1 record over all games this season, averaging 82.7 points and conceding 84.0, and they are 2-0 at home, scoring 91.5 and allowing 85.5; their last five games included two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 95-92 home victory over Georgia State and a 88-79 win over Fresno Pacific. UC Riverside is undefeated 3-0 this season, averaging 84.7 points and allowing 60.7, and they are 1-0 on the road, scoring 80.0 and conceding 75.0; their last five games feature four wins and one loss, with a 110-47 home win over La Verne and an 80-75 away win over San Jose State. The only previous meeting was a 60-57 UC Riverside win over Fresno State on 28 December 2019.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fresno State winWon
71.4%fair 1.40
Best odds1.64
Implied60.0%
Edge+11.5pp
UC Riverside winLost
28.6%fair 3.50
Best odds2.58
Implied40.0%
Edge-11.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142Actual: Over 142
Over 142
64.4%
@ 1.43-0.5pp
Under 142
35.6%
@ 2.65+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 147 · main lineActual: Over 147
Over 147
52.3%
@ 1.88+1.7pp
Under 147
47.7%
@ 1.94-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
39.9%
@ 2.50+2.4pp
Under 152
60.1%
@ 1.70-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Marathon Be
1.70
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Fresno State total 70.5Actual: Fresno State over 70.5
Over 70.5
74.9%
@ 1.34+4.9pp
Under 70.5
25.1%
@ 3.25-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.77
Fresno State total 74.5 · main lineActual: Fresno State over 74.5
Over 74.5
60.9%
@ 1.88+10.9pp
Under 74.5
39.1%
@ 2.40-10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
Fresno State total 78.5Actual: Fresno State over 78.5
Over 78.5
45.2%
@ 2.50+7.5pp
Under 78.5
54.8%
@ 1.52-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
UC Riverside total 68Actual: UC Riverside over 68
Over 68
61.0%
Under 68
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC Riverside total 72 · main lineActual: UC Riverside over 72
Over 72
45.0%
@ 1.86-4.9pp
Under 72
55.0%
@ 1.85+4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
UC Riverside total 76Actual: UC Riverside over 76
Over 76
30.0%
Under 76
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Fresno State -6Actual: Fresno State -6
FRES -6
52.2%
@ 2.23+9.2pp
UC R +6
47.8%
@ 1.78-9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
FRES
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
SBO
1.96
Marathon Be
1.94
UC R
Marathon Be
1.78
SBO
1.75
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.60
Spread Fresno State -3 · main lineActual: Fresno State -3
FRES -3
63.7%
@ 1.89+12.8pp
UC R +3
36.3%
@ 1.96-12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
FRES
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.74
UC R
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Fresno State 0Actual: Fresno State 0
FRES 0
71.4%
UC R 0
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
FRES
No market prices yet.
UC R
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Fresno StateUC Riverside
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wyoming
#148
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A18/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H01/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H04/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A08/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#354
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H03/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#169
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A08/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#299
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H11/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
36.8Scored
34.7Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 71.5
Last 30 (30)
34.4
34.6
69.0
-0.2
50%
50%
Last 30 at home (16)
35.4
33.2
68.6
+2.1
56%
56%
Last 30 away (14)
33.3
36.2
69.5
-2.9
43%
43%
Last 10 (10)
36.8
34.7
71.5
+2.1
70%
60%
Last 5 (5)
35.4
35.8
71.2
-0.4
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)
30.5
33.2
63.7
-2.7
33%
33%
vs Similar (5)
40.8
41.0
81.8
-0.2
60%
80%
vs Weaker (6)
39.7
33.2
72.8
+6.5
83%
67%
This opponent (UC Riverside) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UC RiversideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UC Santa Barbara
#146
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H13/02
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A15/02
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
43-23
43
23
+20
H20/02
NCAA
UC Davis
#139
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H21/02
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#146
L
27-39
27
39
-12
A27/02
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Hawaii
#44
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A06/03
NCAA
La Verne
#522
W
52-21
52
21
+31
H03/11
NCAA
Denver
#359
L
22-29
22
29
-7
H08/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#278
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A13/11
NCAA
67.7Avg total
35.2Scored
32.5Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 71.5
Last 30 (30)
35.0
36.1
71.1
-1.1
33%
50%
Last 30 at home (14)
36.2
32.9
69.1
+3.3
50%
36%
Last 30 away (16)
34.0
38.9
72.9
-4.9
19%
62%
Last 10 (10)
35.2
32.5
67.7
+2.7
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
37.6
33.0
70.6
+4.6
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)
33.0
38.1
71.1
-5.1
21%
47%
vs Similar (5)
38.2
37.6
75.8
+0.6
40%
60%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)
36.2
30.2
66.4
+6.0
60%
40%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Fresno State win
FRES win
no forecast
@ 1.68
UC R win
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Spread Fresno State +4 · main lineActual: Fresno State +4
FRES +4
no forecast
@ 1.87
UC R -4
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Fresno State 1st half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Fresno State over 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
UC Riverside 1st half total 33 · main lineActual: UC Riverside under 33
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half: FRES + total 68.5
FRES & over
no forecast
@ 3.30
FRES & under
no forecast
@ 3.10
1st half: Draw + total 68.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 23.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 23.00
1st half: UC R + total 68.5
UC R & over
no forecast
@ 4.75
UC R & under
no forecast
@ 4.50
1st half Over/Under 70Actual: Over 70
Over
no forecast
@ 2.08
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Fresno State +2.5Actual: Fresno State +2.5
FRES +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
UC R -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half Spread Fresno State +5.5Actual: Fresno State +5.5
FRES +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.16
UC R -5.5
no forecast
@ 4.50
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.96
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Fresno State +1.5Actual: Fresno State +1.5
FRES +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
UC R -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.72
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Fresno State (regulation)
FRES
no forecast
@ 1.70
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
UC R
no forecast
@ 2.47
Fresno StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wyoming
#148
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A18/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
34-48
34
48
-14
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
30-41
30
41
-11
H01/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H04/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#354
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H03/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#169
L
29-49
29
49
-20
A08/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#299
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H11/11
NCAA
77.7Avg total
35.1Scored
42.6Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 77.5
Last 30 (30)
38.2
39.9
78.1
-1.7
40%
50%
Last 30 at home (16)
40.2
38.7
78.9
+1.5
50%
56%
Last 30 away (14)
35.9
41.3
77.2
-5.4
29%
43%
Last 10 (10)
35.1
42.6
77.7
-7.5
20%
50%
Last 5 (5)
35.4
42.2
77.6
-6.8
20%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)
36.8
42.1
78.9
-5.2
17%
50%
vs Similar (5)
40.6
44.2
84.8
-3.6
60%
80%
vs Weaker (6)
38.8
29.7
68.5
+9.2
83%
17%
This opponent (UC Riverside) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UC RiversideLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UC Santa Barbara
#146
L
33-47
33
47
-14
H13/02
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A15/02
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H20/02
NCAA
UC Davis
#139
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H21/02
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#146
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A27/02
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H01/03
NCAA
Hawaii
#44
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A06/03
NCAA
La Verne
#522
W
58-26
58
26
+32
H03/11
NCAA
Denver
#359
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H08/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#278
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A13/11
NCAA
82.5Avg total
43.0Scored
39.5Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 77.5
Last 30 (30)
39.1
41.1
80.3
-2.0
40%
60%
Last 30 at home (14)
42.1
39.8
81.9
+2.4
57%
57%
Last 30 away (16)
36.5
42.3
78.8
-5.8
25%
62%
Last 10 (10)
43.0
39.5
82.5
+3.5
70%
80%
Last 5 (5)
47.0
38.8
85.8
+8.2
80%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)
36.1
42.7
78.8
-6.6
26%
53%
vs Similar (5)
42.6
42.0
84.6
+0.6
40%
80%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)
43.4
37.2
80.6
+6.2
80%
60%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UC Riverside win
FRES win
no forecast
@ 1.75
UC R win
no forecast
@ 2.10
2nd half Spread Fresno State -2.5 · main lineActual: UC Riverside +2.5
FRES -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
UC R +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Fresno State (regulation)
FRES
no forecast
@ 1.80
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
UC R
no forecast
@ 2.15
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Fresno State -1
70.7%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Fresno State win
71.4%
1.57
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
+11.5pp
Won
Fresno State +1
73.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Fresno State +2.5
77.0%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Fresno State +1.5
73.7%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Fresno State +2
76.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Fresno State +3.5
79.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Fresno State +4.5
81.9%
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Fresno State +4
81.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Fresno State +5.5
84.1%
1.23
Betano
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Fresno State +3
78.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Fresno State +6.5
86.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Fresno State over 69.5
77.9%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Fresno State +15.5
96.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Fresno State +10.5
92.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.4%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Fresno State over 70.5
74.9%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Fresno State +20.5
98.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
UC Riverside under 76.5
71.0%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Lost
Fresno State over 71.5
71.6%
1.36
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
UC Riverside under 78.5
77.1%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
UC Riverside under 79.5
79.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
UC Riverside under 77.5
74.2%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
UC Riverside +24.5
93.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
UC Riverside under 81.5
84.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Fresno State under 96.5
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 174.5
94.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
UC Riverside under 80.5
82.4%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Fresno State under 92.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Fresno State under 94.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 157
71.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
UC Riverside over 54.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Fresno State under 87.5
84.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Over 122.5
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
UC Riverside +19.5
87.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 172.5
92.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 169.5
90.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Fresno State under 90.5
90.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
UC Riverside over 56.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
UC Riverside over 55.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 159.5
75.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Under 164.5
84.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Lost
Over 127.5
89.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 124.5
92.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
UC Riverside over 57.5
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Fresno State under 83.5
73.2%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
UC Riverside over 58.5
88.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
UC Riverside +13.5
73.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Lost
UC Riverside +13
72.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Fresno State under 88.5
86.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Lost
UC Riverside +14.5
76.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Over 137.5
73.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Fresno State under 86.5
82.0%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
Over 132.5
82.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
UC Riverside over 59.5
86.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
UC Riverside +12.5
70.7%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
87.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
UC Riverside over 60.5
84.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
UC Riverside over 62.5
79.1%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
UC Riverside over 61.5
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Fresno State under 85.5
79.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Lost
Under 157.5
71.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Lost
Under 162.5
81.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Lost
UC Riverside over 64.5
73.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Fresno State under 84.5
76.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Lost
UC Riverside over 63.5
76.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Over 134.5
79.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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