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Fuerza Regia vs Astros Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:15
Projected 87-87
Projected total 173.7
Final 69-83
21-20 15-18 19-22 14-23
Position#5
Record22-12
FormWLWLL
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game87.0
Fuerza Regia
Mexico
Vs
48%
52%
■ FUER 48%■ ASTR 52%
Pythia win probability
Astros 🏆
Mexico
Position#2
Record25-8
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.9
Allowed / game80.5
MexicoLNBPLNBP - Semi-finals· Gimnasio Nuevo Leon Independiente
Other2026-27
Meetings · Fuerza Regia v Astros
03 Nov 2026
FUER77
ASTR82
02 Nov 2026
FUER69
ASTR83
14 Dec 2023
FUER98
ASTR90
12 Dec 2023
FUER93
ASTR88
11 Dec 2023
FUER90
ASTR83
22 Nov 2021
FUER85
ASTR81
21 Nov 2021
FUER85
ASTR73
19 Sep 2021
FUER64
ASTR81
18 Sep 2021
FUER77
ASTR75
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Fuerza Regia and Astros face off in the LNBP on 2 November 2026, a contest that feels almost evenly matched as the odds sit at 48% for the home side and 52% for the visitors, with the model naming Astros the favourite. Fuerza Regia, 22-12 overall, averages 91.0 points and allows 87.0, while Astros, 25-8 overall, scores 88.9 and concedes 80.5, a difference that hints at Astros' tighter defence. In recent form the home team has won only 2 of its last 5 games, including back-to-back losses to Astros 90-97 and 89-96, whereas the visitors have gone 5-0, topping the season with 11 wins in 15 road outings and a 90.7 points per game average. Their head-to-head record is even at 5-5, but the most recent meeting saw Astros triumph 97-90. Pythia projects a 87-87 tie with a total of 173.7 points, and the probability of the game extending into overtime is 5%. The spread line is 0, so neither side is expected to cover, and the over/under line remains unchanged. The game will hinge on whether Fuerza Regia can reverse its recent slump against the Astros' disciplined defence.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fuerza Regia winLost
48.2%fair 2.08
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Astros winWon
51.8%fair 1.93
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fuerza RegiaMexicoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRegia
Date
Competition
Astros
#2
W
77-74
77
74
+3
74avg 84
A03/10
LNBP
Astros
#2
L
87-101
87
101
-14
79avg 84
A04/10
LNBP
Soles
#1
L
86-88
86
88
-2
86avg 84
A07/10
LNBP
Soles
#1
W
92-75
92
75
+17
90avg 84
A08/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
W
101-90
101
90
+11
102avg 84
H18/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
W
80-76
80
76
+4
78avg 84
H20/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
L
116-120 OT
116
120
-4
122avg 84
A23/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
W
106-97
106
97
+9
114avg 84
A24/10
LNBP
Astros
#2
L
89-96
89
96
-7
69avg 84
A30/10
LNBP
Astros
#2
L
90-97 OT
90
97
-7
79avg 84
A31/10
LNBP
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-19
15-20
21-16
19-19
23-25
24-30
19-17
21-29
25-28
15-23
24-17
22-20
20-19
19-23
25-9
28-24
31-15
23-34
25-18
22-23
19-22
10-17
24-18
27-19
28-26
30-28
25-24
20-25
27-26
25-27
33-25
21-19
25-18
17-28
22-25
25-25
19-20
18-24
16-23
33-19
183.8Avg total
92.4Scored
91.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)91.087.0178.0+4.065%
Season at home (16)90.287.5177.7+2.769%
Season away (18)91.786.5178.2+5.261%
Last 10 (10)92.491.4183.8+1.050%
Last 5 (5)96.297.2193.4-1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)86.888.5175.3-1.733%
vs Similar (10)92.294.4186.6-2.250%
vs Weaker (14)92.581.2173.7+11.386%
This opponent (Astros) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AstrosMexicoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAstros
Date
Competition
Diablos Rojos
#9
W
86-67
86
67
+19
82avg 89
A27/09
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
L
74-77
74
77
-3
64avg 89
H03/10
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
W
101-87
101
87
+14
86avg 89
H04/10
LNBP
Gambusinos
#11
W
96-89
96
89
+7
96avg 89
H07/10
LNBP
Gambusinos
#11
W
86-71
86
71
+15
74avg 89
H08/10
LNBP
Mineros
#7
W
100-78
100
78
+22
91avg 89
H18/10
LNBP
Mineros
#7
W
86-83
86
83
+3
75avg 89
H20/10
LNBP
Mineros
#7
W
81-72
81
72
+9
75avg 89
A23/10
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
W
96-89
96
89
+7
97avg 89
H30/10
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
W
97-90 OT
97
90
+7
94avg 89
H31/10
LNBP
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-15
16-15
26-18
22-19
19-22
20-15
16-21
19-19
25-23
30-24
17-19
29-21
19-20
25-23
31-19
21-27
18-18
22-21
23-11
23-21
28-22
22-12
24-24
26-20
28-27
23-24
17-27
18-5
24-12
29-24
11-25
17-11
18-25
28-17
25-22
25-25
20-19
24-18
23-16
19-33
170.6Avg total
90.3Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)88.980.5169.4+8.376%
Season at home (18)87.479.4166.8+8.078%
Season away (15)90.781.9172.6+8.773%
Last 10 (10)90.380.3170.6+10.090%
Last 5 (5)92.082.4174.4+9.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)78.582.0160.5-3.550%
vs Similar (2)72.071.5143.5+0.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)91.580.7172.3+10.881%
This opponent (Fuerza Regia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166Actual: Under 166
Over 166
67.3%
Under 166
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171Actual: Under 171
Over 171
55.5%
Under 171
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176Actual: Under 176
Over 176
43.2%
Under 176
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Fuerza Regia total 82Actual: Fuerza Regia under 82
Over 82
67.3%
Under 82
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fuerza Regia total 86Actual: Fuerza Regia under 86
Over 86
51.8%
Under 86
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fuerza Regia total 90Actual: Fuerza Regia under 90
Over 90
36.2%
Under 90
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astros total 81Actual: Astros over 81
Over 81
72.6%
Under 81
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astros total 85Actual: Astros under 85
Over 85
57.9%
Under 85
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astros total 89Actual: Astros under 89
Over 89
42.0%
Under 89
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Fuerza Regia -3Actual: Astros +3
FUER -3
39.1%
ASTR +3
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
FUER
No market prices yet.
ASTR
No market prices yet.
Spread Fuerza Regia 0Actual: Astros 0
FUER 0
48.2%
ASTR 0
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
FUER
No market prices yet.
ASTR
No market prices yet.
Spread Fuerza Regia +3Actual: Astros -3
FUER +3
57.3%
ASTR -3
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
FUER
No market prices yet.
ASTR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -5.8-5.8Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +1.8+1.8
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -5.8-5.8Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +1.8+1.8
Fuerza RegiaAstros
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Fuerza RegiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astros
#2
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A03/10
LNBP
Astros
#2
L
47-55
47
55
-8
A04/10
LNBP
Soles
#1
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A07/10
LNBP
Soles
#1
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A08/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H18/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H20/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
W
58-54
58
54
+4
A23/10
LNBP
Dorados
#6
L
52-53
52
53
-1
A24/10
LNBP
Astros
#2
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A30/10
LNBP
Astros
#2
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A31/10
LNBP
90.7Avg total
43.5Scored
47.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.644.087.6-0.443%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.643.186.6+0.550%-
Last 30 away (16)43.744.888.5-1.138%-
Last 10 (10)43.547.290.7-3.720%-
Last 5 (5)43.647.290.8-3.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)40.346.286.5-5.80%-
vs Similar (10)44.549.193.6-4.630%-
vs Weaker (14)44.439.483.9+5.071%-
This opponent (Astros) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AstrosLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Diablos Rojos
#9
W
38-30
38
30
+8
A27/09
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H03/10
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
W
55-47
55
47
+8
H04/10
LNBP
Gambusinos
#11
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H07/10
LNBP
Gambusinos
#11
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H08/10
LNBP
Mineros
#7
W
50-34
50
34
+16
H18/10
LNBP
Mineros
#7
D
51-51
51
51
+0
H20/10
LNBP
Mineros
#7
W
53-36
53
36
+17
A23/10
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H30/10
LNBP
Fuerza Regia
#5
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H31/10
LNBP
85.6Avg total
46.0Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.839.785.5+6.173%-
Last 30 at home (17)44.940.184.9+4.865%-
Last 30 away (13)46.939.286.2+7.785%-
Last 10 (10)46.039.685.6+6.490%-
Last 5 (5)48.840.088.8+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)39.544.584.0-5.00%-
vs Similar (2)35.041.576.5-6.50%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)47.139.286.3+7.985%-
This opponent (Fuerza Regia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Fuerza Regiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Fuerza Regia: 89.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.021.2
55.8%
54.1%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.410.5
39.8%
34.8%31.5
🏀 Free throws19.415.8
81.4%
71.7%15.8
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Astrostheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Astros: 89.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.220.5
52.3%
54.1%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.311.1
37.9%
34.8%33.3
🏀 Free throws21.115.5
73.5%
71.7%15.5
They take 68.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Fuerza Regia
LLWLWWWLLW
Astros
WWWWWWWWLW
#5
League position
#2
-0.2
Net rating
+14.2
102.0
Offensive rating
102.9
102.2
Defensive rating
88.7
57.4%
Effective FG%
54.2%
55.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.8%
17.2%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.31
39.8%
3-point %
37.9%
77.3%
Assist %
61.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence102.0 · 102.9Defence102.2 · 88.7Shooting57.4% · 54.2%3-point %39.8% · 37.9%Ball care17.2% · 12.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Fuerza Regia   ■ Astros
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Fuerza Regia wins
5
Astros wins
DateGameScore
31/10/26Astros v Fuerza Regia97-90 OT
30/10/26Astros v Fuerza Regia96-89
04/10/26Astros v Fuerza Regia101-87
03/10/26Astros v Fuerza Regia74-77
14/09/25Astros v Fuerza Regia100-88
14/09/25Astros v Fuerza Regia98-107
19/09/24Astros v Fuerza Regia63-89
18/09/24Astros v Fuerza Regia80-79
15/12/23Fuerza Regia v Astros98-90
13/12/23Fuerza Regia v Astros93-88
Fuerza Regialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26AAstros90-97 OT
30/10/26AAstros89-96
24/10/26ADorados106-97
23/10/26ADorados116-120 OT
20/10/26HDorados80-76
18/10/26HDorados101-90
08/10/26ASoles92-75
07/10/26ASoles86-88
04/10/26AAstros87-101
03/10/26AAstros77-74
Astroslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HFuerza Regia97-90 OT
30/10/26HFuerza Regia96-89
23/10/26AMineros81-72
20/10/26HMineros86-83
18/10/26HMineros100-78
08/10/26HGambusinos86-71
07/10/26HGambusinos96-89
04/10/26HFuerza Regia101-87
03/10/26HFuerza Regia74-77
27/09/26ADiablos Rojos86-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fuerza Regia
LNBP 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL65%
HomeWWWWW69%
AwayWLWLL61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341618
Win %65%69%61%
Points / game91.090.291.7
Allowed / game87.087.586.5
Point differential+4.0+2.7+5.2
Avg total178.0177.7178.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)67% (6)50% (6)
Overtime %18%25%11%
Astros
LNBP 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW76%
HomeWWWWW78%
AwayLWWWW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331815
Win %76%78%73%
Points / game88.987.490.7
Allowed / game80.579.481.9
Point differential+8.3+8.0+8.7
Avg total169.4166.8172.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%33%53%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)33% (3)-
Overtime %9%11%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Soles3326779%86.073.3+12.7
2 Astros3325876%88.980.5+8.3
3 Fuerza Regia34221265%91.087.0+4.0
4 Panteras34221265%88.485.4+3.0
5 Lobos Plateados34211362%85.682.0+3.6
6 Dorados34201459%87.686.5+1.1
7 Mineros34171750%86.285.3+0.9
8 Abejas34142041%83.486.8-3.3
9 Diablos Rojos31121939%82.485.7-3.3
10 Santos31121939%84.988.9-4.1
11 Gambusinos30111937%80.183.8-3.7
12 El Calor de Cancun2891932%81.385.1-3.9
13 Freseros3092130%84.392.2-7.9
14 Correcaminos2842414%82.594.1-11.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Fuerza Regia2115191469
Astros2018222383
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