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Geelong vs Casey Cavaliers Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 12 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 71-77
15-26 20-17 19-13 17-21
Position#17
Record7-12
FormWLWLL
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game89.4
vs
Position#10
Record10-9
FormLWLLL
Points / game88.8
Allowed / game87.0
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Geelong v Casey Cavaliers
12 Jul 2025
GEEL71
CASE77
28 Jun 2024
GEEL88
CASE77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Geelong winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Casey Cavaliers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mt Gambier
#2
L
88-94
88
94
-6
A18/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A24/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
W
89-86
89
86
+3
H31/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
82-110
82
110
-28
A14/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
85-97
85
97
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
110-94
110
94
+16
H21/06
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
77-92
77
92
-15
A22/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
90-81
90
81
+9
H28/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
83-86
83
86
-3
H05/07
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
84-106
84
106
-22
A11/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-37
31-16
18-17
14-24
22-24
16-13
16-14
14-22
26-30
24-16
24-20
15-20
20-29
24-22
21-29
17-30
16-30
21-19
22-22
26-26
35-19
24-27
27-29
24-19
15-22
13-21
27-20
22-29
26-20
22-21
17-17
25-23
18-21
28-24
20-21
17-20
25-21
28-26
13-34
18-25
177.5Avg total
85.6Scored
91.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)83.789.4173.1-5.737%
Season at home (9)87.887.9175.7-0.156%
Season away (10)80.090.8170.8-10.820%
Last 10 (10)85.691.9177.5-6.330%
Last 5 (5)88.891.8180.6-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)79.487.5166.9-8.131%
vs Similar (11)86.883.2170.0+3.673%
vs Weaker (3)86.780.0166.7+6.767%
This opponent (Casey Cavaliers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Casey CavaliersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Frankston
#12
W
92-83
92
83
+9
A17/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
81-83 OT
81
83
-2
H24/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
90-80
90
80
+10
A31/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
100-103
100
103
-3
H06/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
102-82
102
82
+20
H14/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
93-109
93
109
-16
H21/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
89-77
89
77
+12
A28/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
83-93
83
93
-10
H29/06
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
86-99
86
99
-13
A05/07
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
87-109
87
109
-22
H11/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-17
29-19
17-25
16-22
18-15
14-25
15-13
22-16
20-30
18-17
23-15
29-18
30-21
24-30
14-24
32-28
26-16
27-24
26-18
23-24
25-22
21-36
29-28
18-23
23-15
26-19
16-22
24-21
21-21
21-23
18-24
23-25
26-25
20-18
23-26
17-30
18-27
23-18
22-30
24-34
182.1Avg total
90.3Scored
91.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)88.887.0175.8+1.853%
Season at home (10)89.392.7182.0-3.420%
Season away (9)88.280.7168.9+7.689%
Last 10 (10)90.391.8182.1-1.540%
Last 5 (5)87.697.4185.0-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)81.691.1172.7-9.621%
vs Similar (9)86.489.4175.9-3.033%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)91.986.4178.3+5.471%
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.5-2.5Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: -1.3-1.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.5-2.5Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: -1.3-1.3
GeelongCasey Cavaliers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mt Gambier
#2
W
56-53
56
53
+3
A18/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A24/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H31/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A14/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
37-49
37
49
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H21/06
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
28-43
28
43
-15
A22/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H28/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H05/07
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
53-47
53
47
+6
A11/07
NBL1 South
91.7Avg total
45.9Scored
45.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.043.484.4-2.443%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.443.789.1+1.664%-
Last 30 away (16)37.243.180.4-5.925%-
Last 10 (10)45.945.891.7+0.170%-
Last 5 (5)46.844.491.2+2.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)38.444.482.9-6.038%-
vs Similar (11)45.242.888.0+2.455%-
vs Weaker (3)39.740.079.7-0.333%-
This opponent (Casey Cavaliers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Casey CavaliersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Frankston
#12
W
59-36
59
36
+23
A17/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H24/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A31/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
54-51
54
51
+3
H06/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
53-40
53
40
+13
H14/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
46-58
46
58
-12
H21/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
49-34
49
34
+15
A28/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H29/06
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A05/07
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H11/07
NBL1 South
89.8Avg total
46.0Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.144.388.4-0.143%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.245.688.8-2.529%-
Last 30 away (13)45.442.587.8+2.962%-
Last 10 (10)46.043.889.8+2.250%-
Last 5 (5)44.844.889.6+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)42.446.989.3-4.436%-
vs Similar (9)43.342.085.3+1.322%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)48.642.090.6+6.686%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Geelong wins
2
Casey Cavaliers wins
DateGameScore
28/06/24Geelong v Casey Cavaliers88-77
22/04/23Casey Cavaliers v Geelong90-63
14/08/22Casey Cavaliers v Geelong100-95
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/07/25ADandenong84-106
05/07/25HFrankston83-86
28/06/25HNunawading90-81
22/06/25AKilsyth77-92
21/06/25HDiamond Valley110-94
15/06/25HNW Tasmania85-97
14/06/25ARingwood82-110
31/05/25HMelbourne Tigers89-86
24/05/25AEltham68-73
18/05/25AMt Gambier88-94
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/07/25HKilsyth87-109
05/07/25ADandenong86-99
29/06/25HEltham83-93
28/06/25ABendigo Braves89-77
21/06/25HRingwood93-109
14/06/25HNW Tasmania102-82
06/06/25HSandringham Sabres100-103
31/05/25AKeilor Thunder90-80
24/05/25HMelbourne Tigers81-83 OT
17/05/25AFrankston92-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Geelong
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL37%
HomeWLWWL56%
AwayLLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %37%56%20%
Points / game83.787.880.0
Allowed / game89.487.990.8
Point differential-5.7-0.1-10.8
Avg total173.1175.7170.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)33% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Casey Cavaliers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL53%
HomeLWLLL20%
AwayWWWWL89%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19109
Win %53%20%89%
Points / game88.889.388.2
Allowed / game87.092.780.7
Point differential+1.8-3.4+7.6
Avg total175.8182.0168.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%10%56%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)0% (5)100% (2)
Overtime %11%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1915479%90.882.9+7.9
2 Mt Gambier2014670%96.383.0+13.3
3 Sandringham Sabres1912763%93.289.5+3.6
4 Melbourne Tigers2012860%86.580.7+5.8
5 Kilsyth2012860%88.285.3+2.9
6 Eltham1911858%88.186.7+1.4
7 Ballarat1911858%87.790.4-2.7
8 Hobart Chargers1810856%86.984.5+2.4
9 Ringwood2011955%94.889.3+5.5
10 Casey Cavaliers1910953%88.887.0+1.8
11 Frankston1991047%91.888.7+3.1
12 Nunawading1991047%86.587.0-0.5
13 Waverley2091145%93.396.3-3.0
14 Bendigo Braves2181338%82.094.0-12.0
15 Keilor Thunder1971237%82.588.2-5.7
16 Geelong1971237%83.789.4-5.7
17 Dandenong1961332%90.595.4-4.8
18 NW Tasmania1851328%85.689.7-4.1
19 Diamond Valley1951426%84.894.2-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Geelong1520191771
Casey Cavaliers2617132177
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