PythiaBasketballBETA
European Championship WomenRound 3· Tasos Kampouris Kanithou Indoor Hall
The European Championship Women match on 17 November 2026 pits Greece W against Netherlands W, with the model designating Greece W as the clear favourite, reflected in an 85% win probability that stems from their 5-3 season record, 89.5 points scored per game and 77.4 allowed, placing them 16th in the league, while the Netherlands sit at 23rd with a 4-4 record, 79.1 points scored and 78.0 allowed. Greece's home form is stronger, 3-1 at home with 92.8 points scored and 67.5 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 98-70 victory over Slovakia W at home on 14 November 2026. The Netherlands have struggled on the road, 1-2 with 78.0 points scored and 80.0 allowed, and have lost three of their last five, notably a 80-97 defeat to Slovenia W away on 17 March 2026. In their head-to-head history, Greece W has met the Netherlands W once, with the last meeting recorded as a 87-75 projected score. Pythia projects a 87-75 outcome, totaling 162.2 points, with an 85% chance of Greece covering the home line and a 3% chance of overtime. The game will likely see Greece W maintain their offensive edge and secure a decisive win.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 89.5 | 77.4 | 166.9 | +12.1 | 62% |
| Season at home (4) | 92.8 | 67.5 | 160.2 | +25.2 | 75% |
| Season away (4) | 86.2 | 87.2 | 173.5 | -1.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 84.4 | 79.4 | 163.8 | +5.0 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 89.0 | 75.2 | 164.2 | +13.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 65.7 | 74.6 | 140.2 | -8.9 | 25% |
| vs Similar (7) | 71.6 | 68.4 | 140.0 | +3.1 | 57% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 83.5 | 73.2 | 156.7 | +10.4 | 64% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 79.1 | 78.0 | 157.1 | +1.1 | 50% |
| Season at home (5) | 79.8 | 76.8 | 156.6 | +3.0 | 60% |
| Season away (3) | 78.0 | 80.0 | 158.0 | -2.0 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.2 | 79.7 | 155.9 | -3.5 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.6 | 81.0 | 159.6 | -2.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 68.0 | 77.0 | 145.0 | -9.0 | 27% |
| vs Similar (2) | 57.0 | 72.5 | 129.5 | -15.5 | 0% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 76.2 | 58.2 | 134.3 | +18.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.2 | 36.5 | 72.7 | -0.3 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 37.4 | 33.0 | 70.4 | +4.4 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 35.2 | 39.6 | 74.8 | -4.4 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.9 | 39.2 | 83.1 | +4.7 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.4 | 36.0 | 79.4 | +7.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 30.0 | 38.1 | 68.1 | -8.1 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 35.9 | 32.0 | 67.9 | +3.9 | 71% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 43.2 | 37.6 | 80.8 | +5.5 | 64% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (23) | 33.7 | 35.7 | 69.3 | -2.0 | 39% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 35.0 | 34.9 | 69.9 | +0.1 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 32.2 | 36.5 | 68.7 | -4.4 | 45% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.5 | 40.2 | 78.7 | -1.7 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.4 | 41.0 | 81.4 | -0.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 33.9 | 38.3 | 72.3 | -4.4 | 27% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 32.0 | 32.5 | 64.5 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 33.5 | 30.2 | 63.7 | +3.3 | 67% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 42.8 | 19.0 | 44.4% | - | 38.0 |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 18.0 | 5.7 | 31.5% | - | 17.0 |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.3 | 12.9 | 74.4% | - | 12.9 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.3 | 17.7 | 43.8% | - | 35.3 |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.0 | 5.8 | 25.4% | - | 17.5 |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.3 | 10.2 | 58.7% | - | 10.2 |
Greece W
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Slovakia W | 98-70 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Serbia W | 74-84 |
| 17/03/26 | H | Denmark W | 99-77 |
| 14/03/26 | H | North Macedonia W | 101-47 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Croatia W | 73-98 |
| 18/11/25 | A | Denmark W | 97-83 |
| 15/11/25 | A | North Macedonia W | 101-84 |
| 12/11/25 | H | Croatia W | 73-76 |
| 21/06/25 | H | Turkey W | 72-83 |
| 19/06/25 | A | France W | 56-92 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Serbia W | 82-89 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Slovakia W | 80-69 |
| 17/03/26 | A | Slovenia W | 80-97 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Latvia W | 64-73 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Estonia W | 87-77 |
| 18/11/25 | H | Slovenia W | 86-76 |
| 15/11/25 | A | Latvia W | 62-89 |
| 12/11/25 | A | Estonia W | 92-54 |
| 09/02/25 | H | Spain W | 64-81 |
| 06/02/25 | H | Croatia W | 65-92 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWLW | 62% |
| Home | LWWW | 75% |
| Away | WWLL | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 62% | 75% | 50% |
| Points / game | 89.5 | 92.8 | 86.2 |
| Allowed / game | 77.4 | 67.5 | 87.2 |
| Point differential | +12.1 | +25.2 | -1.0 |
| Avg total | 166.9 | 160.2 | 173.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 62% | 75% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLWL | 50% |
| Home | WWLWL | 60% |
| Away | WLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 60% | 33% |
| Points / game | 79.1 | 79.8 | 78.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.0 | 76.8 | 80.0 |
| Point differential | +1.1 | +3.0 | -2.0 |
| Avg total | 157.1 | 156.6 | 158.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 60% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 53.0 | +49.0 |
| 2 |  Serbia W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 82.8 | 65.0 | +17.8 |
| 3 |  Italy W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 69.0 | 55.5 | +13.5 |
| 4 |  Turkey W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 77.5 | 64.5 | +13.0 |
| 5 |  Spain W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 67.5 | +11.5 |
| 6 |  Hungary W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 67.5 | 60.0 | +7.5 |
| 7 |  Poland W | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 75.4 | 53.2 | +22.1 |
| 8 |  Bulgaria W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 88.6 | 63.1 | +25.5 |
| 9 |  Latvia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 77.9 | 64.2 | +13.6 |
| 10 |  Israel W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 82.4 | 71.2 | +11.1 |
| 11 |  Great Britain W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 78.4 | 71.0 | +7.4 |
| 12 |  Belgium W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 86.0 | 74.3 | +11.7 |
| 13 |  Lithuania W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 70.0 | +8.0 |
| 14 |  Finland W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 82.3 | -4.3 |
| 15 |  Montenegro W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 74.6 | 62.0 | +12.6 |
| 16 | Greece W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 89.5 | 77.4 | +12.1 |
| 17 |  Croatia W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 80.2 | 73.0 | +7.2 |
| 18 |  Slovenia W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 75.8 | 70.1 | +5.6 |
| 19 |  Austria W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 73.9 | 70.2 | +3.6 |
| 20 |  Ukraine W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 72.0 | 66.4 | +5.6 |
| 21 |  Germany W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 76.0 | 70.5 | +5.5 |
| 22 |  Slovakia W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 70.1 | 64.6 | +5.5 |
| 23 | Netherlands W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 79.1 | 78.0 | +1.1 |
| 24 |  Denmark W | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 83.2 | 79.6 | +3.6 |
| 25 |  Luxembourg W | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 65.0 | 70.4 | -5.4 |
| 26 |  Portugal W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 67.3 | 67.8 | -0.5 |
| 27 |  Switzerland W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 69.7 | 73.2 | -3.5 |
| 28 |  Ireland W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 73.5 | 80.3 | -6.8 |
| 29 |  Romania W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 58.7 | 75.0 | -16.3 |
| 30 |  Iceland W | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.2 | 84.0 | -19.8 |
| 31 | Bosnia & Herzegovina W | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 71.2 | 85.8 | -14.7 |
| 32 |  North Macedonia W | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 62.5 | 96.5 | -34.0 |
| 33 |  Czech Republic W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 70.0 | 77.5 | -7.5 |
| 34 | Sweden W | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 88.7 | -15.3 |
| 35 |  Estonia W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 62.0 | 86.8 | -24.8 |
| 36 |  Norway W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 51.0 | 75.8 | -24.8 |
| 37 |  Cyprus W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 54.2 | 80.2 | -26.0 |
| 38 |  Azerbaijan W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 45.7 | 105.0 | -59.3 |
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