Horsens vs BMS Herlev Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 14:00

Projected 101-71

Projected total 171.3

Final 98-57

28-11 24-12 26-17 20-17

Position#3

Record7-2

FormWWWWW

Points / game88.2

Allowed / game79.9

Horsens 🏆

99%

■ HORS 99%■ BMS 1%

Pythia win probability

BMS Herlev

Position#12

Record1-8

FormLLLLL

Points / game75.9

Allowed / game97.6

Basketligaen· Forum Horsens

Other2026-27

Meetings · Horsens v BMS Herlev

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Horsens will host BMS Herlev on 8 November 2026 in the Basketligaen, and the Pythia model names Horsens as the clear favourite with a 99% chance of victory, a reflection of their 7-2 record, 88.2 points per game and 79.9 allowed, placing them third in the league, versus BMS Herlev's 1-8 record, 75.9 points per game and 97.6 allowed, twelfth in the standings. Horsens' home form is solid at 3-1, 90.8 points per game and 86.8 allowed, and they have won all five of their last games, including a 93-84 win over Bears Academy, a 102-66 win over Vejen and a 94-84 win at Randers. BMS Herlev has struggled on the road, 1-3, 74.2 points per game and 88.2 allowed, and has lost all five of their most recent outings, with defeats to Copenhagen, Vaerlose and Bakken Bears. The teams have faced each other twice before, with Horsens winning both encounters, most recently 89-73 on 16 November 2025. Pythia projects a 101-71 score for the game, a total of 171.3 points, and a 56% probability that the combined score will exceed the 169.0 line, while Horsens has a 99% chance of covering the spread. The model assigns a 0% chance of overtime. Horsens' recent dominance and defensive edge suggest they will extend their winning streak in this matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Horsens winWon

99.2%fair 1.01

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

BMS Herlev winLost

0.8%fair 119.84

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 14:23 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Horsens

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormHorsens

Date

Competition

Svendborg

78-103

103

-25

66avg 77

A14/05

Basketligaen

Svendborg

92-70

+22

86avg 77

A17/09

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

64-83

-19

52avg 77

A24/09

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

73-101

101

-28

66avg 77

H27/09

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

99-79

+20

104avg 77

H02/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

80-69

+11

72avg 77

A10/10

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

97-83

+14

92avg 77

H15/10

Basketligaen

Randers

94-84

+10

92avg 77

H23/10

Basketligaen

Vejen

102-66

102

+36

105avg 77

A28/10

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

93-84

no box

A04/11

Basketligaen

22-23

22-27

14-28

20-25

24-13

16-25

23-13

29-19

13-27

21-19

21-10

9-27

15-31

21-28

15-24

22-18

20-25

26-16

21-21

32-17

16-22

21-20

27-13

16-14

23-18

43-24

0-0

31-41

28-25

18-21

22-20

26-18

30-21

26-17

19-13

27-15

25-21

22-12

19-21

27-30

169.4Avg total

87.2Scored

82.2Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	88.2	79.9	168.1	+8.3	78%
Season at home (4)	90.8	86.8	177.5	+4.0	75%
Season away (5)	86.2	74.4	160.6	+11.8	80%
Last 10 (10)	87.2	82.2	169.4	+5.0	70%
Last 5 (5)	93.2	77.2	170.4	+16.0	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	81.1	90.4	171.5	-9.3	33%
vs Similar (5)	85.2	79.2	164.4	+6.0	60%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	92.3	78.6	170.9	+13.7	90%

This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

BMS Herlev Denmark

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormHerlev

Date

Competition

Amager

#13

75-61

+14

66avg 67

H23/04

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

82-75

72avg 67

A20/09

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

70-102

102

-32

49avg 67

H23/09

Basketligaen

Vejen

95-106

106

-11

85avg 67

H26/09

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

77-80

-3

63avg 67

A01/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

55-117

117

-62

33avg 67

H10/10

Basketligaen

Randers

71-93

-22

55avg 67

A18/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

67-105

105

-38

55avg 67

A24/10

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

99-107 OT

107

-8

89avg 67

H30/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

67-93

-26

no box

H04/11

Basketligaen

15-18

24-11

19-23

17-9

26-14

25-24

19-18

12-19

22-21

10-33

13-21

25-27

25-31

18-36

27-16

25-23

26-21

12-16

16-25

23-18

17-27

12-35

11-30

15-25

22-18

14-31

23-19

12-25

20-19

19-34

14-27

14-25

25-23

24-25

17-17

23-24

17-12

20-18

11-33

19-30

169.7Avg total

75.8Scored

93.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	75.9	97.6	173.4	-21.7	11%
Season at home (5)	77.2	105.0	182.2	-27.8	0%
Season away (4)	74.2	88.2	162.5	-14.0	25%
Last 10 (10)	75.8	93.9	169.7	-18.1	20%
Last 5 (5)	71.8	103.0	174.8	-31.2	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	75.6	96.7	172.3	-21.1	12%
vs Similar (6)	84.0	80.7	164.7	+3.3	67%
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Horsens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5

Over 163.5

68.6%

@ 1.47+6.1pp

Under 163.5

31.4%

@ 2.45-6.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.47

Under

Betano

2.45

Over/Under 168.5 · main lineActual: Under 168.5

Over 168.5

56.9%

@ 1.88+7.2pp

Under 168.5

43.1%

@ 1.95-7.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.88

Marathon Be

1.86

WilliamHill

1.85

BetVictor

1.85

Betano

1.80

Under

Bet365

1.95

SBO

1.87

Betano

1.87

Marathon Be

1.87

Pinnacle

1.86

Over/Under 173.5Actual: Under 173.5

Over 173.5

44.5%

@ 2.32+4.1pp

Under 173.5

55.5%

@ 1.57-4.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.32

Bet365

2.25

Under

Bet365

1.57

Betano

1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Horsens total 94.5Actual: Horsens over 94.5

Over 94.5

73.2%

@ 1.45+9.3pp

Under 94.5

26.8%

@ 2.60-9.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.45

Betano

1.44

1xBet

1.40

Under

Bet365

2.60

Betano

2.55

1xBet

2.33

Horsens total 98.5 · main lineActual: Horsens under 98.5

Over 98.5

58.5%

@ 1.88+9.5pp

Under 98.5

41.5%

@ 1.83-9.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.88

Marathon Be

1.88

Betano

1.85

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.76

Under

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.82

BetVictor

1.80

Marathon Be

1.80

1xBet

1.69

Horsens total 102.5Actual: Horsens under 102.5

Over 102.5

no forecast

@ 2.60

Under 102.5

no forecast

@ 1.52

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.60

1xBet

2.45

Bet365

2.40

Under

Bet365

1.52

Betano

1.42

1xBet

1.36

BMS Herlev total 66.5Actual: BMS Herlev under 66.5

Over 66.5

no forecast

@ 1.42

Under 66.5

no forecast

@ 2.75

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.42

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.37

Under

Bet365

2.75

Betano

2.62

1xBet

2.44

BMS Herlev total 70.5 · main lineActual: BMS Herlev under 70.5

Over 70.5

50.6%

@ 1.87+0.6pp

Under 70.5

49.4%

@ 1.85-0.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathon Be

1.87

Betano

1.83

BetVictor

1.83

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.72

Under

Betano

1.85

BetVictor

1.85

Marathon Be

1.83

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.72

BMS Herlev total 74.5Actual: BMS Herlev under 74.5

Over 74.5

34.9%

@ 2.57-1.6pp

Under 74.5

65.1%

@ 1.47+1.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.57

Bet365

2.55

1xBet

2.41

Under

Bet365

1.47

Betano

1.42

1xBet

1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Horsens -30.5Actual: Horsens -30.5

HORS -30.5

no forecast

@ 2.24

BMS +30.5

no forecast

@ 1.60

Best 5 market prices

HORS

1xBet

2.24

Betano

2.22

Bet365

2.20

BMS

Bet365

1.60

Betano

1.57

Marathon Be

1.54

1xBet

1.46

Spread Horsens -27.5 · main lineActual: Horsens -27.5

HORS -27.5

no forecast

@ 1.91

BMS +27.5

no forecast

@ 1.95

Best 5 market prices

HORS

Pinnacle

1.91

Betfair

1.91

1xBet

1.86

BetVictor

1.85

Marathon Be

1.85

BMS

Bet365

1.95

Marathon Be

1.88

1xBet

1.87

Betano

1.85

SBO

1.83

Spread Horsens -24.5Actual: Horsens -24.5

HORS -24.5

68.6%

@ 1.60+8.9pp

BMS +24.5

31.4%

@ 2.27-8.9pp

Best 5 market prices

HORS

Bet365

1.60

Betano

1.53

Marathon Be

1.52

1xBet

1.46

BMS

Betano

2.27

1xBet

2.25

Bet365

2.20

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

HorsensBMS Herlev

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	21.2	22.9	44.1	-1.6	37%	50%
Last 30 at home (14)	22.1	21.6	43.7	+0.6	57%	50%
Last 30 away (16)	20.4	24.0	44.4	-3.6	19%	50%
Last 10 (10)	21.6	22.6	44.2	-1.0	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	24.4	21.4	45.8	+3.0	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	20.3	25.5	45.9	-5.2	13%	60%
vs Similar (5)	22.6	19.6	42.2	+3.0	80%	40%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	21.9	20.5	42.4	+1.4	50%	40%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	20.5	22.1	42.6	-1.6	50%	50%
Last 30 at home (17)	20.1	23.5	43.6	-3.5	41%	65%
Last 30 away (13)	21.1	20.3	41.4	+0.8	62%	31%
Last 10 (10)	21.5	20.4	41.9	+1.1	70%	50%
Last 5 (5)	20.2	19.8	40.0	+0.4	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	20.3	22.7	43.0	-2.4	46%	54%
vs Similar (6)	21.3	19.8	41.2	+1.5	67%	33%
vs Weaker	no games

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	22.0	20.2	42.2	+1.9	63%	47%
Last 30 at home (14)	24.3	19.7	44.0	+4.6	79%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	20.1	20.6	40.6	-0.5	50%	31%
Last 10 (10)	23.6	20.9	44.5	+2.7	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	26.0	18.8	44.8	+7.2	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	20.9	20.8	41.7	+0.1	60%	53%
vs Similar (5)	17.2	20.0	37.2	-2.8	20%	0%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	26.2	19.3	45.5	+6.9	90%	60%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	19.9	24.3	44.2	-4.4	33%	67%
Last 30 at home (17)	20.1	23.2	43.3	-3.2	41%	71%
Last 30 away (13)	19.6	25.7	45.3	-6.1	23%	62%
Last 10 (10)	17.8	26.3	44.1	-8.5	30%	70%
Last 5 (5)	17.8	28.6	46.4	-10.8	20%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	19.0	25.8	44.8	-6.8	25%	67%
vs Similar (6)	23.3	18.5	41.8	+4.8	67%	67%
vs Weaker	no games

HorsensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Svendborg

44-50

-6

A14/05

Basketligaen

Svendborg

40-38

A17/09

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

34-46

-12

A24/09

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

36-59

-23

H27/09

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

46-41

H02/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

37-42

-5

A10/10

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

66-42

+24

H15/10

Basketligaen

Randers

46-46

H23/10

Basketligaen

Vejen

56-38

+18

A28/10

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

47-33

+14

A04/11

Basketligaen

88.7Avg total

45.2Scored

43.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 85.5
Last 30 (30)	43.3	43.0	86.3	+0.2	47%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	46.4	41.3	87.7	+5.1	64%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	40.5	44.6	85.1	-4.1	31%	44%
Last 10 (10)	45.2	43.5	88.7	+1.7	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	50.4	40.2	90.6	+10.2	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	41.2	46.3	87.5	-5.1	27%	60%
vs Similar (5)	39.8	39.6	79.4	+0.2	40%	40%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	48.1	39.8	87.9	+8.3	80%	50%

This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

BMS HerlevLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Amager

#13

39-29

+10

H23/04

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

51-38

+13

A20/09

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

32-54

-22

H23/09

Basketligaen

Vejen

43-67

-24

H26/09

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

38-37

A01/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

29-62

-33

H10/10

Basketligaen

Randers

36-49

-13

A18/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

39-53

-14

A24/10

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

#10

49-48

H30/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

37-30

H04/11

Basketligaen

86.0Avg total

39.3Scored

46.7Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 85.5
Last 30 (30)	40.4	46.4	86.8	-6.1	37%	57%
Last 30 at home (17)	40.1	46.8	86.9	-6.6	41%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	40.7	46.0	86.7	-5.3	31%	54%
Last 10 (10)	39.3	46.7	86.0	-7.4	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	38.0	48.4	86.4	-10.4	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	39.3	48.5	87.8	-9.2	25%	62%
vs Similar (6)	44.7	38.3	83.0	+6.3	83%	33%
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Horsens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Horsens win

HORS win

no forecast

@ 1.05

BMS win

no forecast

@ 12.00

1st half Spread Horsens -16 · main lineActual: Horsens -16

HORS -16

no forecast

@ 1.91

BMS +16

no forecast

@ 1.89

1st half Over/Under 85.5 · main lineActual: Under 85.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.95

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

Horsens 1st half total 50 · main lineActual: Horsens over 50

Over

no forecast

@ 1.85

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

BMS Herlev 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: BMS Herlev under 34

Over

no forecast

@ 1.85

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half: HORS + total 85.5

HORS & over

no forecast

@ 2.05

HORS & under

no forecast

@ 1.95

1st half: Draw + total 85.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 41.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 41.00

1st half: BMS + total 85.5

BMS & over

no forecast

@ 17.50

BMS & under

no forecast

@ 17.50

1st half Over/Under 84.25Actual: Under 84.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under

no forecast

@ 1.82

1st half Spread Horsens -17Actual: Horsens -17

HORS -17

no forecast

@ 2.02

BMS +17

no forecast

@ 1.73

1st half Spread Horsens -15Actual: Horsens -15

HORS -15

no forecast

@ 1.83

BMS +15

no forecast

@ 2.03

1st half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Under 87.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.25

Under

no forecast

@ 1.60

1st half Over/Under 83Actual: Under 83

Over

no forecast

@ 1.74

Under

no forecast

@ 2.01

1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Under 81.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.47

Under

no forecast

@ 2.55

1st half Over/Under 89.5Actual: Under 89.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.62

Under

no forecast

@ 1.44

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Horsens (regulation)

HORS

no forecast

@ 1.07

Draw

no forecast

@ 34.00

BMS

no forecast

@ 15.00

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	18.8	19.4	38.2	-0.6	37%	27%
Last 30 at home (14)	18.1	21.5	39.6	-3.4	21%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	19.3	17.6	36.9	+1.8	50%	19%
Last 10 (10)	18.1	16.3	34.4	+1.8	50%	0%
Last 5 (5)	17.4	13.4	30.8	+4.0	60%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	18.5	21.3	39.8	-2.9	27%	27%
vs Similar (5)	20.2	18.2	38.4	+2.0	60%	40%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	18.5	17.1	35.6	+1.4	40%	20%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	19.4	22.7	42.1	-3.2	33%	40%
Last 30 at home (17)	19.9	22.4	42.4	-2.5	29%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	18.8	23.0	41.8	-4.2	38%	38%
Last 10 (10)	17.0	22.9	39.9	-5.9	30%	20%
Last 5 (5)	15.2	25.2	40.4	-10.0	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	18.8	23.0	41.8	-4.2	33%	33%
vs Similar (6)	22.2	21.3	43.5	+0.8	33%	67%
vs Weaker	no games

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	23.0	21.7	44.7	+1.3	60%	67%
Last 30 at home (14)	23.0	22.4	45.4	+0.6	50%	71%
Last 30 away (16)	23.1	21.1	44.1	+2.0	69%	62%
Last 10 (10)	23.9	22.4	46.3	+1.5	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	25.4	23.6	49.0	+1.8	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	20.5	21.8	42.3	-1.3	47%	53%
vs Similar (5)	25.2	21.4	46.6	+3.8	80%	100%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	25.7	21.7	47.4	+4.0	70%	70%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	17.2	23.8	41.0	-6.6	13%	37%
Last 30 at home (17)	18.5	24.5	42.9	-6.0	12%	47%
Last 30 away (13)	15.5	22.9	38.4	-7.5	15%	23%
Last 10 (10)	18.5	22.5	41.0	-4.0	30%	40%
Last 5 (5)	16.6	25.8	42.4	-9.2	0%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	17.2	24.5	41.7	-7.3	12%	38%
vs Similar (6)	17.2	21.0	38.2	-3.8	17%	33%
vs Weaker	no games

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.75
Last 30 (30)	41.8	41.1	82.9	+0.7	53%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	41.1	43.9	85.1	-2.8	36%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	42.4	38.6	81.0	+3.8	69%	44%
Last 10 (10)	42.0	38.7	80.7	+3.3	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	42.8	37.0	79.8	+5.8	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	39.0	43.1	82.1	-4.1	40%	47%
vs Similar (5)	45.4	39.6	85.0	+5.8	80%	80%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	44.2	38.8	83.0	+5.4	60%	50%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.75
Last 30 (30)	36.6	46.5	83.1	-9.9	20%	43%
Last 30 at home (17)	38.4	46.9	85.3	-8.5	18%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	34.2	45.9	80.2	-11.7	23%	23%
Last 10 (10)	35.5	45.4	80.9	-9.9	20%	30%
Last 5 (5)	31.8	51.0	82.8	-19.2	0%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	35.9	47.5	83.4	-11.6	12%	42%
vs Similar (6)	39.3	42.3	81.7	-3.0	50%	50%
vs Weaker	no games

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

HORS win + total 168.5

🔒 Pro

BMS win + total 168.5

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: HORS leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: BMS leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (HORS:BMS ): split

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (HORS:BMS ): HORS wins more

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (HORS:BMS ): BMS wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Horsens over 91.5	82.2%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	+11.2pp	Won
Horsens over 87.5	90.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+11.2pp	Won
Horsens -24	70.8%	1.55	Bet365 1.55	-	-	-	-	+11.0pp	Won
Horsens over 93.5	76.4%	1.38	Bet365 1.41	Betano 1.40	1xBet 1.34	-	-	+10.8pp	Won
Horsens over 89.5	86.9%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+10.8pp	Won
Horsens over 88.5	89.0%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+10.1pp	Won
Horsens over 92.5	79.4%	1.31	Bet365 1.33	1xBet 1.29	-	-	-	+10.0pp	Won
Horsens -17.5	86.1%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+9.9pp	Won
Horsens over 90.5	84.7%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+9.9pp	Won
Horsens over 85.5	93.6%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+9.8pp	Won
Horsens over 94.5	73.2%	1.43	Bet365 1.45	Betano 1.44	1xBet 1.40	-	-	+9.3pp	Won
Horsens over 86.5	92.3%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+9.2pp	Won
Horsens -23.5	71.7%	1.46	Bet365 1.54	Betano 1.47	1xBet 1.38	-	-	+9.0pp	Won
Horsens -22.5	74.5%	1.40	Bet365 1.47	Betano 1.40	1xBet 1.32	-	-	+8.9pp	Won
Horsens -21.5	77.2%	1.34	Betano 1.34	-	-	-	-	+8.8pp	Won
Horsens -20.5	79.7%	1.29	Betano 1.29	-	-	-	-	+8.8pp	Won
Horsens over 83.5	95.7%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Horsens over 81.5	97.3%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+8.2pp	Won
Horsens over 84.5	94.8%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
Horsens over 82.5	96.6%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Horsens over 79.5	98.3%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Won
Horsens over 80.5	97.8%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.6pp	Won
Horsens over 78.5	98.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Won
Horsens over 77.5	99.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Won
Horsens -12.5	93.2%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Over 161.5	72.9%	1.38	Betano 1.38	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Lost
Over 162.5	70.8%	1.42	Betano 1.42	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Lost
Horsens -7.5	97.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.8pp	Won
Over 144.5	95.3%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
Over 159.5	76.9%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Lost
Over 154.5	85.3%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 88.5	96.2%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 86.5	94.3%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Over 149.5	91.3%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 87.5	95.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 89.5	96.9%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 90.5	97.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 85.5	93.1%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 84.5	91.7%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 80.5	83.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 78.5	78.6%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 82.5	88.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 83.5	90.1%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+2.6pp	Won
Under 194.5	92.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 76.5	72.3%	1.30	Bet365 1.33	1xBet 1.27	-	-	-	+2.3pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 79.5	81.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 81.5	86.2%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Won
BMS Herlev under 77.5	75.5%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+0.8pp	Won
Under 189.5	87.2%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
Under 184.5	79.5%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+0.0pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Horsenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Horsens: 84.5 points a game scored

🏀🏀51%

🏀🏀🏀32%

🏀18%

🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 51% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 32% of the points

🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 18% of the points

League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.0	21.5	56.6%	55.2%	43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.9	8.9	34.4%	31.2%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	24.2	14.8	61.2%	68.0%	14.8

They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

BMS Herlevtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BMS Herlev: 78.6 points a game scored

🏀🏀49%

🏀🏀🏀34%

🏀17%

🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 49% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 34% of the points

🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 17% of the points

League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.9	19.2	46.9%	55.2%	38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.1	9.0	32.0%	31.2%	27.0
🏀 Free throws	20.8	13.2	63.5%	68.0%	13.2

They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.1	25.0	59.4%	55.2%	50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	23.8	7.1	29.8%	31.2%	21.3
🏀 Free throws	19.0	12.8	67.4%	68.0%	12.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.1	24.8	58.9%	55.2%	49.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.1	7.9	29.2%	31.2%	23.7
🏀 Free throws	26.2	17.9	68.3%	68.0%	17.9

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.6	22.1	55.7%	55.2%	44.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.3	8.4	33.3%	31.2%	25.3
🏀 Free throws	23.5	14.5	61.8%	68.0%	14.5

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.5	19.8	47.7%	55.2%	39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.1	8.8	31.4%	31.2%	26.5
🏀 Free throws	20.9	13.5	64.3%	68.0%	13.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.9	22.0	57.9%	55.2%	43.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.0	8.5	32.5%	31.2%	25.4
🏀 Free throws	18.4	13.3	72.1%	68.0%	13.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.4	25.4	59.9%	55.2%	50.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.0	8.3	30.6%	31.2%	24.8
🏀 Free throws	25.0	17.4	69.5%	68.0%	17.4

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Horsens

WWWWWWLLWL

BMS Herlev

LLLLLLLLWW

League position

#12

+0.4

Net rating

-13.1

95.0

Offensive rating

81.6

94.6

Defensive rating

94.7

54.5%

Effective FG%

47.4%

54.1%

Opp. effective FG%

53.0%

16.9%

Turnover %

18.3%

0.38

Free-throw rate

0.30

34.4%

3-point %

32.0%

65.1%

Assist %

57.8%

70%

Form (last 10/10)

20%

Profile

■ Horsens ■ BMS Herlev

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Horsens wins

BMS Herlev wins

Date	Game	Score
16/11/25	Horsens v BMS Herlev	89-73
10/10/25	BMS Herlev v Horsens	68-90

Horsenslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/11/26	A	Bears Academy	93-84
28/10/26	A	Vejen	102-66
23/10/26	H	Randers	94-84
15/10/26	H	Holbaek-Stenhus	97-83
10/10/26	A	Copenhagen	80-69
02/10/26	H	Vaerlose	99-79
27/09/26	H	Team FOG Naestved	73-101
24/09/26	A	Bakken Bears	64-83
17/09/26	A	Svendborg	92-70
14/05/26	A	Svendborg	78-103

BMS Herlevlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/11/26	H	Copenhagen	67-93
30/10/26	H	Vaerlose	99-107 OT
24/10/26	A	Bakken Bears	67-105
18/10/26	A	Randers	71-93
10/10/26	H	Team FOG Naestved	55-117
01/10/26	A	Holbaek-Stenhus	77-80
26/09/26	H	Vejen	95-106
23/09/26	H	Gladsaxe	70-102
20/09/26	A	Bears Academy	82-75
23/04/26	H	Amager	75-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Horsens

Basketligaen 2026-27

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	78%
Home	LWWW	75%
Away	WLWWW	80%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	4	5
Win %	78%	75%	80%
Points / game	88.2	90.8	86.2
Allowed / game	79.9	86.8	74.4
Point differential	+8.3	+4.0	+11.8
Avg total	168.1	177.5	160.6
Over 168.5	56%	100%	20%
Win by 10+	67%	75%	60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

BMS Herlev

Basketligaen 2026-27

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLL	11%
Home	LLLLL	0%
Away	WLLL	25%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	5	4
Win %	11%	0%	25%
Points / game	75.9	77.2	74.2
Allowed / game	97.6	105.0	88.2
Point differential	-21.7	-27.8	-14.0
Avg total	173.4	182.2	162.5
Over 168.5	56%	80%	25%
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	-	0% (1)
Overtime %	11%	20%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Team FOG Naestved	9	9	0	100%	102.8	69.3	+33.4
2	Bakken Bears	7	7	0	100%	105.6	76.1	+29.4
3	Svendborg	9	7	2	78%	90.6	79.9	+10.7
4	Horsens	9	7	2	78%	88.2	79.9	+8.3
5	Randers	9	6	3	67%	95.3	86.2	+9.1
6	Copenhagen	9	5	4	56%	84.0	81.6	+2.4
7	Holbaek-Stenhus	10	4	6	40%	77.1	87.4	-10.3
8	Vejen	9	3	6	33%	80.9	93.6	-12.7
9	Gladsaxe	10	3	7	30%	79.4	88.9	-9.5
10	Vaerlose	10	2	8	20%	78.0	91.7	-13.7
11	BMS Herlev	9	1	8	11%	75.9	97.6	-21.7
12	Bears Academy	10	1	9	10%	78.8	92.6	-13.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Horsens	28	24	26	20	98
BMS Herlev	11	12	17	17	57

← all games of the day

Horsens vs BMS Herlev Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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