PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
On 17 November 2026 the Houston Cougars will host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model deems a 99% win for Houston, a figure driven by Houston's 2-1 season record, 84.7 points scored and 62.3 allowed per game, and a perfect 2-0 home record with 93.0 points per game and 50.5 allowed, compared to Rutgers' undefeated 2-0 record, 91.0 points per game and 59.0 allowed, and a 4-1 record over the last five games; Houston's last five games include a 92-46 home win over Jacksonville State, a 68-86 away loss to California, and a 94-55 home win over La Salle, while Rutgers' recent results feature a 101-64 home win over NJIT, an 81-54 home win over New Haven Chargers, and a 59-72 away loss to UCLA. The only head-to-head meeting was in 2021 when Houston beat Rutgers 63-60, giving Houston a 1-0 advantage. Pythia projects a final score of 88-61 with a total of 148.2 points, giving Houston a 99% chance to win and Rutgers a 1% chance, and predicts an 88-61 outcome with no overtime expected. The projected score and win probabilities confirm Houston's dominant position in this contest.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 84.7 | 62.3 | 147.0 | +22.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.0 | 50.5 | 143.5 | +42.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 86.0 | 154.0 | -18.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.3 | 62.3 | 139.6 | +15.0 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.4 | 61.8 | 141.2 | +17.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (4) | 65.5 | 71.8 | 137.2 | -6.2 | 0% |
| vs Weaker (26) | 79.8 | 62.6 | 142.4 | +17.2 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 84.7 | 56.3 | 141.0 | +28.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 84.7 | 56.3 | 141.0 | +28.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 74.8 | 68.5 | 143.3 | +6.3 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.0 | 61.6 | 138.6 | +15.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (20) | 69.3 | 80.6 | 149.9 | -11.3 | 20% |
| vs Similar (6) | 74.5 | 68.2 | 142.7 | +6.3 | 83% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 79.8 | 54.8 | 134.5 | +25.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.8 | 30.6 | 68.4 | +7.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 38.3 | 26.4 | 64.7 | +11.9 | 72% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 37.1 | 36.9 | 74.0 | +0.2 | 42% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 31.6 | 69.5 | +6.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 28.2 | 65.8 | +9.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (4) | 32.2 | 36.8 | 69.0 | -4.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (26) | 38.7 | 29.7 | 68.3 | +9.0 | 69% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.3 | 34.6 | 65.9 | -3.3 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 34.1 | 33.3 | 67.4 | +0.8 | 44% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 28.1 | 36.1 | 64.2 | -8.1 | 14% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.7 | 28.5 | 62.2 | +5.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.6 | 28.2 | 62.8 | +6.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (20) | 28.9 | 38.3 | 67.2 | -9.3 | 10% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 34.8 | 28.2 | 63.0 | +6.7 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 37.8 | 26.0 | 63.8 | +11.8 | 100% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Jacksonville State | 92-46 |
| 09/11/26 | A | California | 68-86 |
| 03/11/26 | H | La Salle | 94-55 |
| 27/03/26 | H | Illinois | 55-65 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Texas A&M | 88-57 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Idaho | 78-47 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Arizona | 74-79 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Kansas | 69-47 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Brigham Young | 73-66 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Oklahoma State | 82-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Bryant University | 72-51 |
| 10/11/26 | H | NJIT | 101-64 |
| 07/11/26 | H | New Haven Chargers | 81-54 |
| 13/03/26 | A | UCLA | 59-72 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Minnesota | 72-67 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Penn State | 74-62 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Michigan State | 87-91 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Maryland | 69-65 |
| 24/02/26 | H | Washington | 72-79 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Minnesota | 61-80 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 84.7 | 93.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 62.3 | 50.5 | 86.0 |
| Point differential | +22.3 | +42.5 | -18.0 |
| Avg total | 147.0 | 143.5 | 154.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 84.7 | 84.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 56.3 | 56.3 | - |
| Point differential | +28.3 | +28.3 | - |
| Avg total | 141.0 | 141.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 3 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  TCU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.2 | +27.8 |
| 5 |  Arizona State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 63.2 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 7 |  Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 59.3 | +19.3 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 |  UCF Knights | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 10 |  Arizona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 74.0 | +13.2 |
| 11 | Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 13 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 14 |  Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 60.0 | +13.7 |
| 15 |  Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 70.3 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UCLA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 58.3 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 60.7 | +28.3 |
| 3 | Rutgers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 56.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 68.7 | +26.3 |
| 6 |  Indiana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Minnesota | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 58.5 | +20.2 |
| 9 |  USC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 71.3 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 11 |  Illinois | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 104.5 | 71.2 | +33.2 |
| 12 |  Purdue | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.0 | +9.5 |
| 13 |  Northwestern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 70.8 | 61.8 | +9.0 |
| 14 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 15 |  Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 74.3 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Penn State | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.6 | 75.6 | +2.0 |
| 17 |  Ohio State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 79.2 | +1.8 |
| 18 |  Maryland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 80.0 | +4.3 |
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