Idaho hosts Cal Poly on 13 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, and the Pythia model names Idaho the clear favourite, rating them 92% to win largely because of their 2-1 record, 90.7 points per game and only 67.7 allowed, a sharp contrast to Cal Poly's 1-2 record, 77.7 points scored and 88.3 allowed. Idaho has gone 2-0 at home, averaging 102.5 points and conceding 62.5, while Cal Poly has gone 0-2 on the road, scoring 77.5 and giving up 101.5; Idaho's last five games include a 108-69 win over Lincoln University and a 97-56 victory over George Fox, whereas Cal Poly's recent slate contains a 71-99 loss to Grand Canyon and an 84-104 defeat by Arizona. Their head-to-head history is even, 2-2, with Idaho's last meeting a 83-80 win in December 2025. Pythia projects an 88-72 score, a total of 159.9, and gives Idaho a 91% chance to cover the -2.0 line, while the over on a 165.0 line has a 37% probability; the game has a 2% chance of overtime. The final game-day fact: Idaho's home record remains unbeaten at 2-0.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Idaho winLost
92.3%fair 1.08
Best odds1.85
Implied51.9%
Edge+40.4pp
Cal Poly winWon
7.7%fair 13.01
Best odds2.07
Implied48.1%
Edge-40.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Idaho) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
43.4%
@ 1.54-17.4pp
Under 162.5
56.6%
@ 2.37+17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.37
Bet365
2.35
Over/Under 167.5 · main lineActual: Under 167.5
Over 167.5
31.8%
@ 2.00-18.7pp
Under 167.5
68.2%
@ 1.93+18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.81
SBO
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Over/Under 172.5Actual: Under 172.5
Over 172.5
21.8%
@ 2.65-14.4pp
Under 172.5
78.2%
@ 1.47+14.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Idaho total 80Actual: Idaho under 80
Over 80
80.6%
Under 80
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Idaho total 84 · main lineActual: Idaho under 84
Over 84
67.2%
@ 1.86+17.4pp
Under 84
32.8%
@ 1.85-17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Idaho total 88Actual: Idaho under 88
Over 88
51.0%
Under 88
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cal Poly total 78Actual: Cal Poly over 78
Over 78
25.5%
Under 78
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cal Poly total 82 · main lineActual: Cal Poly over 82
Over 82
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under 82
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Cal Poly total 85.5Actual: Cal Poly under 85.5
Over 85.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under 85.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Idaho -4Actual: Cal Poly +4
IDAH -4
87.7%
@ 2.31+46.5pp
CAL +4
12.3%
@ 1.62-46.5pp
Best 5 market prices
IDAH
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.15
CAL
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Spread Idaho -1 · main lineActual: Cal Poly +1
IDAH -1
92.2%
@ 1.90+41.6pp
CAL +1
7.8%
@ 2.03-41.6pp
Best 5 market prices
IDAH
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.82
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.78
CAL
Bet365
2.03
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.88
Spread Idaho +2Actual: Cal Poly -2
IDAH +2
94.2%
@ 1.68+37.1pp
CAL -2
5.8%
@ 2.27-37.1pp
Best 5 market prices
IDAH
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.58
CAL
Bet365
2.27
Pinnacle
2.24
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
IdahoCal Poly
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Idaho) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Cal Poly win
IDAH win
no forecast
@ 1.82
CAL win
no forecast
@ 2.00
2nd half Spread Idaho -1.5 · main lineActual: Cal Poly +1.5
IDAH -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
CAL +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
2nd half Over/Under 85.5 · main lineActual: Over 85.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Cal Poly (regulation)
IDAH
no forecast
@ 1.87
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
CAL
no forecast
@ 2.05
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Idaho -8
78.4%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+47.3pp
Lost
Idaho -7
81.0%
2.72
Bet365
2.72
-
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
Idaho -9
75.5%
3.25
Bet365
3.25
-
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
Idaho -6
83.4%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+46.8pp
Lost
Idaho -7.5
78.9%
2.86
Betano
2.92
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Lost
Idaho -3
89.3%
2.10
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
1.95
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Lost
Idaho -8.5
76.2%
3.12
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
+46.5pp
Lost
Idaho -4
87.7%
2.23
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+46.5pp
Lost
Idaho -6.5
81.5%
2.63
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
+46.4pp
Lost
Idaho -9.5
73.4%
3.40
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.30
-
-
-
+46.2pp
Lost
Idaho -5.5
83.8%
2.44
Betano
2.47
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
+45.7pp
Lost
Idaho -5
85.6%
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
-
+45.4pp
Lost
Idaho -4.5
86.0%
2.25
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+44.9pp
Lost
Idaho -2.5
89.5%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.92
SBO
1.88
-
+44.9pp
Lost
Idaho -3.5
87.9%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+44.7pp
Lost
Idaho -2
91.1%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.88
SBO
1.88
-
+44.4pp
Lost
Idaho -1.5
91.3%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
Betano
1.87
+42.2pp
Lost
Idaho (regulation)
91.1%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.80
-
-
-
+41.6pp
Lost
Idaho -1
92.2%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.78
-
+41.6pp
Lost
Cal Poly under 78.5
75.3%
2.65
Betano
2.65
-
-
-
-
+41.2pp
Lost
Cal Poly under 77.5
72.1%
2.95
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.90
-
-
-
+41.0pp
Lost
Idaho win
92.3%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
+40.4pp
Lost
Cal Poly under 79.5
78.3%
2.41
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
+40.2pp
Lost
Cal Poly under 80.5
81.0%
2.20
Betano
2.20
-
-
-
-
+40.0pp
Lost
Idaho +1
93.1%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+39.3pp
Lost
Idaho +1.5
93.1%
1.71
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
+38.0pp
Lost
Idaho +2
94.2%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+37.1pp
Lost
Idaho +2.5
94.3%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
-
-
+35.2pp
Lost
Idaho +3
95.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+32.0pp
Lost
Idaho +3.5
95.0%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Lost
Idaho +4
95.7%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+30.4pp
Lost
Idaho +4.5
95.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+29.3pp
Lost
Idaho +5
96.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Idaho +5.5
96.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Idaho +6
97.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Lost
Idaho +6.5
97.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Lost
Idaho +7.5
97.5%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Idaho +8.5
97.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Under 169
71.9%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Under 168.5
70.4%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.73
WilliamHill
1.73
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.68
+18.4pp
Won
Under 169.5
72.4%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.60
-
+18.1pp
Won
Idaho over 82.5
72.0%
1.72
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.65
-
-
+16.6pp
Lost
Idaho over 81.5
75.3%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
Under 170.5
74.5%
1.57
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Idaho over 80.5
78.3%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Under 170
73.9%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Idaho over 78.5
83.8%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
Under 171
75.9%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Idaho over 79.5
81.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
Under 172.5
78.2%
1.45
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Under 171.5
76.4%
1.50
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Idaho +13.5
99.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Under 173.5
80.0%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 172
77.8%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Under 173
79.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Under 174.5
81.6%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Idaho over 77.5
86.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Lost
Under 174
81.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Idaho over 75.5
90.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Idaho over 74.5
91.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Under 176.5
84.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Idaho +18.5
99.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Idaho over 73.5
93.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Idaho over 72.5
94.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.2%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Idaho over 71.5
95.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Idaho over 70.5
96.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Idaho +23.5
99.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Idaho over 69.5
97.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Idaho under 99.5
87.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 141.5
87.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Idaho under 97.5
82.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Idaho under 95.5
76.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Idaho under 93.5
70.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Over 146.5
79.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Cal Poly over 62.5
81.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Cal Poly over 63.5
79.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.6pp
Won
Cal Poly over 64.5
76.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
Cal Poly over 65.5
72.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-18.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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