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Illinois (Chi.) vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 63-58
35-30 28-28
Position#154
Record15-11
FormWLLLL
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game74.6
vs
Position#334
Record9-17
FormLWLLW
Points / game69.5
Allowed / game71.4
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Illinois (Chi.) v Missouri State
16 Feb 2025
ILLI63
MISS58
30 Nov 2022
ILLI51
MISS66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois (Chi.) winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
L
60-61
60
61
-1
H11/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
W
97-93 OT
97
93
+4
H16/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
81-74
81
74
+7
A18/01
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
78-67
78
67
+11
A23/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
85-89
85
89
-4
H25/01
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
93-70
93
70
+23
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
83-88
83
88
-5
H01/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
79-81
79
81
-2
H06/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
67-79
67
79
-12
A08/02
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
53-63
53
63
-10
A12/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-25
26-36
33-36
43-40
38-38
43-36
47-32
31-35
46-46
39-43
55-39
38-31
41-52
42-36
37-45
42-36
22-30
45-49
20-31
33-32
154.1Avg total
77.6Scored
76.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)79.574.6154.1+4.958%
Season at home (13)82.676.1158.7+6.554%
Season away (13)76.473.1149.5+3.362%
Last 10 (10)77.676.5154.1+1.140%
Last 5 (5)75.076.2151.2-1.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.177.6156.7+1.657%
vs Similar (15)73.577.9151.5-4.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)82.870.7153.5+12.267%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#270
L
78-88 OT
78
88
-10
A12/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
51-73
51
73
-22
H16/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
68-74
68
74
-6
A18/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
68-79
68
79
-11
A22/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
62-69 OT
62
69
-7
H25/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
67-72
67
72
-5
A30/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
W
77-56
77
56
+21
H01/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
61-66
61
66
-5
H06/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
68-85
68
85
-17
A08/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
71-54
71
54
+17
H13/02
NCAA
1H
2H
27-35
45-37
18-35
33-38
31-25
37-49
31-37
37-42
25-35
30-20
36-25
31-47
43-19
34-37
30-34
31-32
44-45
24-40
36-26
35-28
138.7Avg total
67.1Scored
71.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)69.571.4140.9-2.035%
Season at home (14)71.269.0140.2+2.250%
Season away (12)67.474.2141.7-6.817%
Last 10 (10)67.171.6138.7-4.520%
Last 5 (5)68.866.6135.4+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)65.070.4135.4-5.425%
vs Similar (16)71.171.6142.7-0.638%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: +0.5+0.52nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: -3.3-3.3
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: +0.5+0.52nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: -3.3-3.3
Illinois (Chi.)Missouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
W
34-25
34
25
+9
H11/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H16/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A18/01
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A23/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H25/01
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
55-39
55
39
+16
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
41-52
41
52
-11
H01/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H06/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
22-30
22
30
-8
A08/02
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
20-31
20
31
-11
A12/02
NCAA
74.7Avg total
37.3Scored
37.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.435.673.0+1.837%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.138.378.4+1.936%-
Last 30 away (16)34.933.268.2+1.738%-
Last 10 (10)37.337.474.7-0.130%-
Last 5 (5)35.039.474.4-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.932.970.7+5.057%-
vs Similar (15)33.738.371.9-4.67%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)41.732.774.3+9.067%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#270
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A12/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
18-35
18
35
-17
H16/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
W
31-25
31
25
+6
A18/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A22/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
25-35
25
35
-10
H25/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
W
36-25
36
25
+11
A30/01
NCAA
Murray State
#214
W
43-19
43
19
+24
H01/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H06/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A08/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H13/02
NCAA
63.7Avg total
32.1Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.531.563.0+0.040%-
Last 30 at home (15)31.831.363.1+0.547%-
Last 30 away (15)31.231.762.9-0.533%-
Last 10 (10)32.131.663.7+0.540%-
Last 5 (5)37.829.867.6+8.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)31.732.263.8-0.533%-
vs Similar (16)31.231.662.8-0.444%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Illinois (Chi.) wins
4
Missouri State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/02/25AMurray State53-63
08/02/25ASouthern Illinois67-79
06/02/25HIllinois State79-81
01/02/25HIndiana State83-88
30/01/25ABradley93-70
25/01/25HSouthern Illinois85-89
23/01/25AEvansville78-67
18/01/25AValparaiso81-74
16/01/25HMurray State97-93 OT
11/01/25HBradley60-61
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/25HEvansville71-54
08/02/25ABelmont68-85
06/02/25HNorthern Iowa61-66
01/02/25HMurray State77-56
30/01/25AIndiana State67-72
25/01/25HDrake62-69 OT
22/01/25ANorthern Iowa68-79
18/01/25AIllinois State68-74
16/01/25HSouthern Illinois51-73
12/01/25ASouthern Illinois78-88 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL58%
HomeLWLLL54%
AwayWWWLL62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %58%54%62%
Points / game79.582.676.4
Allowed / game74.676.173.1
Point differential+4.9+6.5+3.3
Avg total154.1158.7149.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%31%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)43% (7)0% (1)
Overtime %12%15%8%
Missouri State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW35%
HomeLLWLW50%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %35%50%17%
Points / game69.571.267.4
Allowed / game71.469.074.2
Point differential-2.0+2.2-6.8
Avg total140.9140.2141.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%43%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)25% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %15%14%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake2623388%71.259.3+12.0
2 Bradley2721678%78.569.0+9.5
3 Belmont2718967%81.378.8+2.6
4 Northern Iowa2617965%74.967.5+7.4
5 Illinois (Chi.)26151158%79.574.6+4.9
6 Illinois State27151256%76.572.7+3.8
7 Murray State26131350%72.269.0+3.2
8 Indiana State27131448%80.079.3+0.7
9 Southern Illinois27121544%72.773.5-0.8
10 Valparaiso26111542%76.475.2+1.2
11 Evansville2691735%65.870.7-4.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty2621581%76.561.7+14.8
2 Jacksonville State2618869%76.069.0+7.0
3 Middle Tenn. St.2517868%76.271.0+5.3
4 UTEP2517868%72.968.5+4.4
5 Louisiana Tech2617965%73.868.5+5.3
6 Kennesaw State26151158%77.573.1+4.4
7 Western Kentucky25141156%77.875.7+2.1
8 New Mexico State25131252%70.667.2+3.4
9 Delaware27121544%77.377.8-0.6
10 Sam Houston St.26101638%75.775.8-0.2
11 Missouri State2691735%69.571.4-2.0
12 Florida International2681831%70.873.0-2.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois (Chi.)352863
Missouri State302858
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