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Illinois (Chi.) vs Murray State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 16 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 97-93 (OT)
33-36 43-40 21-17
Position#154
Record11-6
FormWWLWL
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game72.6
vs
Position#214
Record10-7
FormWLWWW
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game67.4
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Illinois (Chi.) v Murray State
01 Jan 2026
ILLI77
MURR81
15 Jan 2025
ILLI97
MURR93
17 Jan 2024
ILLI58
MURR73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois (Chi.) winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aurora
#389
W
91-76
91
76
+15
H30/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
56-83
56
83
-27
H05/12
NCAA
Dartmouth
#203
W
69-68 OT
69
68
+1
H08/12
NCAA
UALR
#145
W
77-69 OT
77
69
+8
A15/12
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
79-68
79
68
+11
A20/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
W
73-67
73
67
+6
A29/12
NCAA
Drake
#8
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H01/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
87-92
87
92
-5
A04/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
80-63
80
63
+17
A08/01
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
60-61
60
61
-1
H11/01
NCAA
1H
2H
43-38
48-38
32-46
24-37
36-39
30-27
30-32
34-32
34-32
45-36
33-35
40-32
32-33
42-37
43-46
44-46
36-27
44-36
34-25
26-36
146.3Avg total
74.6Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)79.572.6152.1+6.865%
Season at home (9)81.170.9152.0+10.267%
Season away (8)77.674.6152.2+3.062%
Last 10 (10)74.671.7146.3+2.970%
Last 5 (5)74.870.6145.4+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)75.380.0155.3-4.733%
vs Similar ◀ (16)69.774.8144.4-5.144%
vs Weaker (3)89.063.0152.0+26.0100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southeast Missouri State
#94
W
73-53
73
53
+20
H08/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#182
L
76-81 OT
76
81
-5
A14/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
74-84
74
84
-10
A19/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#158
L
49-66
49
66
-17
H23/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#323
L
90-94 OT
90
94
-4
A24/12
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#75
W
71-68
71
68
+3
H25/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
68-74
68
74
-6
H03/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
W
66-59
66
59
+7
A05/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
71-68
71
68
+3
A09/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H11/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-33
40-20
39-33
28-34
26-41
48-43
14-34
35-32
29-38
42-33
34-36
37-32
25-33
43-41
26-26
40-33
33-27
38-41
26-21
32-26
139.0Avg total
69.6Scored
69.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)74.267.4141.6+6.859%
Season at home (10)72.861.0133.8+11.870%
Season away (7)76.176.6152.7-0.443%
Last 10 (10)69.669.4139.0+0.250%
Last 5 (5)66.863.2130.0+3.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)69.072.0141.0-3.025%
vs Similar ◀ (17)67.568.4135.8-0.947%
vs Weaker (4)78.071.0149.0+7.075%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.0+0.01st half: -3.7-3.72nd half2nd half: +2.0+2.02nd half: +4.8+4.8
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.0+0.01st half: -3.7-3.72nd half2nd half: +2.0+2.02nd half: +4.8+4.8
Illinois (Chi.)Murray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aurora
#389
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H30/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H05/12
NCAA
Dartmouth
#203
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H08/12
NCAA
UALR
#145
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A15/12
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A20/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A29/12
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H01/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A04/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A08/01
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
34-25
34
25
+9
H11/01
NCAA
70.6Avg total
35.3Scored
35.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.734.570.2+1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.135.975.0+3.350%-
Last 30 away (16)32.633.466.0-0.838%-
Last 10 (10)35.335.370.6+0.040%-
Last 5 (5)35.633.268.8+2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)33.634.167.7-0.644%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)33.235.869.1-2.625%-
vs Weaker (3)45.029.374.3+15.7100%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southeast Missouri State
#94
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H08/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#182
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A14/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A19/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#158
L
14-34
14
34
-20
H23/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#323
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A24/12
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#75
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H25/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
25-33
25
33
-8
H03/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A05/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
33-27
33
27
+6
A09/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
26-21
26
21
+5
H11/01
NCAA
60.7Avg total
28.5Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.533.265.7-0.740%-
Last 30 at home (17)31.830.862.5+1.047%-
Last 30 away (13)33.536.369.8-2.831%-
Last 10 (10)28.532.260.7-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)28.828.657.4+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)32.238.570.8-6.212%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)31.131.262.4-0.147%-
vs Weaker (4)33.534.267.8-0.850%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Illinois (Chi.) wins
3
Murray State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/25HBradley60-61
08/01/25AMissouri State80-63
04/01/25ABelmont87-92
01/01/25HDrake74-70
29/12/24AIllinois State73-67
20/12/24ASeattle79-68
15/12/24AUALR77-69 OT
08/12/24HDartmouth69-68 OT
05/12/24HNorthern Iowa56-83
30/11/24HAurora91-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/25HValparaiso58-47
09/01/25ANorthern Iowa71-68
05/01/25ADrake66-59
03/01/25HIllinois State68-74
25/12/24HLoyola Chicago71-68
24/12/24ACharlotte90-94 OT
23/12/24HNebraska49-66
19/12/24AIndiana State74-84
14/12/24AWestern Kentucky76-81 OT
08/12/24HSoutheast Missouri State73-53

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL65%
HomeWLWWL67%
AwayWWWLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %65%67%62%
Points / game79.581.177.6
Allowed / game72.670.974.6
Point differential+6.8+10.2+3.0
Avg total152.1152.0152.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%44%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %12%11%12%
Murray State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW59%
HomeWLWLW70%
AwayLLLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %59%70%43%
Points / game74.272.876.1
Allowed / game67.461.076.6
Point differential+6.8+11.8-0.4
Avg total141.6133.8152.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%50%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %12%0%29%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake1614288%71.357.0+14.3
2 Bradley1714382%78.967.6+11.3
3 Belmont1813572%81.278.0+3.2
4 Illinois (Chi.)1711665%79.572.6+6.8
5 Northern Iowa1811761%77.268.0+9.2
6 Murray State1710759%74.267.4+6.8
7 Illinois State1710759%77.871.5+6.2
8 Valparaiso1810856%77.972.8+5.1
9 Indiana State179853%83.878.4+5.5
10 Southern Illinois1871139%72.974.9-2.0
11 Evansville1861233%63.368.8-5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Illinois (Chi.)33432197
Murray State36401793
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