PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Illinois State faces Bellarmine on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model declaring Illinois State the clear favourite thanks to a 97% win probability that reflects their 1-2 season record, 81.3 points scored per game and 73.7 allowed, and a perfect 1-0 home record with 100.0 points scored and 55.0 allowed. Bellarmine, meanwhile, sits at 1-3 with 72.0 points per game and 86.8 allowed, and has struggled on the road, going 0-3 and averaging 63.0 points while conceding 88.3. Illinois State's last five games show two wins and three losses, including a 100-55 home victory over Central State (OH) and a 59-76 loss to Purdue away, while Bellarmine's five-game stretch includes a single win over Franklin at home and three defeats away to Miami (Ohio), Indiana and a recent loss to Franklin. The head-to-head history is not recorded, so the matchup relies on current form. Pythia projects a 89-65 score, a total of 154.3 points, and a 1% chance of overtime, underscoring Illinois State's dominant statistical edge in this contest.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 81.3 | 73.7 | 155.0 | +7.7 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 100.0 | 55.0 | 155.0 | +45.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 72.0 | 83.0 | 155.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 72.8 | 72.0 | 144.8 | +0.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.4 | 73.8 | 149.2 | +1.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 81.5 | 86.5 | 168.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (15) | 66.6 | 68.1 | 134.7 | -1.5 | 53% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 84.6 | 66.5 | 151.1 | +18.2 | 77% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 72.0 | 86.8 | 158.8 | -14.8 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 99.0 | 82.0 | 181.0 | +17.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 63.0 | 88.3 | 151.3 | -25.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.6 | 85.2 | 163.8 | -6.6 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.2 | 86.6 | 158.8 | -14.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 75.0 | 85.8 | 160.8 | -10.8 | 15% |
| vs Similar (11) | 79.1 | 78.6 | 157.7 | +0.5 | 64% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 89.2 | 80.6 | 169.8 | +8.6 | 40% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.1 | 32.1 | 68.2 | +3.9 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 39.3 | 28.8 | 68.1 | +10.5 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 31.8 | 36.5 | 68.3 | -4.6 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.3 | 33.4 | 67.7 | +0.9 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 34.6 | 72.2 | +3.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 36.0 | 36.5 | 72.5 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 31.0 | 31.8 | 62.8 | -0.8 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 41.9 | 31.8 | 73.8 | +10.1 | 69% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.0 | 40.5 | 76.5 | -4.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.4 | 36.3 | 75.7 | +3.1 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 32.6 | 44.6 | 77.2 | -12.0 | 13% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.7 | 40.4 | 76.1 | -4.7 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.6 | 40.6 | 73.2 | -8.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 32.8 | 43.8 | 76.7 | -11.0 | 23% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 36.1 | 39.8 | 75.9 | -3.7 | 45% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 40.2 | 36.2 | 76.4 | +4.0 | 60% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Purdue | 59-76 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Central State (OH) | 100-55 |
| 03/11/26 | A | St. Marys (CA) | 85-90 OT |
| 07/03/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 52-74 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Belmont | 81-74 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Northern Iowa | 71-69 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Bradley | 60-74 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Murray State | 78-61 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Illinois (Chi.) | 56-83 |
| 13/02/26 | H | Valparaiso | 86-64 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Franklin | 99-82 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Miami (Ohio) | 73-80 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Indiana | 69-92 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Vanderbilt | 47-93 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Central Arkansas | 73-86 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Jacksonville Dolphins | 82-79 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Austin Peay | 111-97 |
| 26/02/26 | A | North Alabama | 68-73 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Eastern Kentucky | 92-95 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Lipscomb | 72-75 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 81.3 | 100.0 | 72.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.7 | 55.0 | 83.0 |
| Point differential | +7.7 | +45.0 | -11.0 |
| Avg total | 155.0 | 155.0 | 155.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 33% | 0% | 50% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLW | 25% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.0 | 99.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 86.8 | 82.0 | 88.3 |
| Point differential | -14.8 | +17.0 | -25.3 |
| Avg total | 158.8 | 181.0 | 151.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Drake | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.0 | 58.0 | +30.0 |
| 2 |  Murray State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 93.7 | 64.0 | +29.7 |
| 3 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 58.3 | +27.3 |
| 4 |  Belmont | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.0 | 62.3 | +11.7 |
| 5 |  Northern Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 81.3 | +11.3 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 |  Evansville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 73.0 | +2.3 |
| 8 |  Southern Illinois | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 87.5 | 70.0 | +17.5 |
| 9 | Illinois State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.3 | 73.7 | +7.7 |
| 10 |  Indiana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.7 | 75.3 | -4.7 |
| 11 |  Bradley | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 59.0 | 55.5 | +3.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eastern Kentucky | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.0 | 69.0 | +25.0 |
| 2 |  Central Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.7 | 67.0 | +23.7 |
| 3 |  Austin Peay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 86.7 | 65.7 | +21.0 |
| 4 |  North Alabama | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.7 | 74.0 | +1.7 |
| 5 |  Lipscomb | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.8 | 78.5 | -3.8 |
| 6 |  Queens Royals | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.2 | 102.2 | -15.0 |
| 7 |  Florida Gulf Coast | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 85.3 | 81.0 | +4.3 |
| 8 |  North Florida | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.7 | 88.7 | -27.0 |
| 9 | Bellarmine | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 72.0 | 86.8 | -14.8 |
| 10 |  West Georgia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 74.7 | -14.3 |
| 11 |  Stetson | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.0 | 85.7 | -25.7 |
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