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Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 107-116
Projected total 222.3
Scheduled
Position#21
Record5-8
FormWLLWW
Points / game111.2
Allowed / game113.2
Indiana Pacers
USA
Vs
25%
75%
■ IND 25%■ HOU 75%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.0/10
Below normal
3.5/10
Below normal
Houston Rockets
USA
Position#4
Record10-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game116.2
Allowed / game107.4
USANBA· Gainbridge Fieldhouse
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Indiana Pacers v Houston Rockets
18 Nov 2026
IND v HOU
upcoming
02 Feb 2026
IND114
HOU118
04 Mar 2025
IND115
HOU102
06 Feb 2024
IND132
HOU129
09 Mar 2023
IND134
HOU125
23 Dec 2021
IND118
HOU106
06 Jan 2021
IND114
HOU107
05 Nov 2018
IND94
HOU98
12 Nov 2017
IND95
HOU118
29 Jan 2017
IND120
HOU101
27 Mar 2016
IND104
HOU101
23 Mar 2015
IND100
HOU110
20 Dec 2013
IND114
HOU81
18 Jan 2013
IND105
HOU95
12 Nov 2010
IND99
HOU102
04 Apr 2010
IND133
HOU102
23 Jan 2009
IND107
HOU102
Sections
Game preview & prediction

The Indiana Pacers will host the Houston Rockets on 18 November 2026 in the NBA, and the Pythia model names Houston as the favourite, assigning a 75% chance of victory to the Rockets and a 25% chance to the Pacers, a reflection of Houston's 9-3 record and 115.4 points per game compared with Indiana's 4-8 record and 111.6 points per game. Indiana has struggled at home, going 1-5 with 104.0 points per game and 109.3 allowed, while Houston has been solid on the road, 3-2 with 115.4 points per game and 108.4 allowed; the Pacers' last five games included two wins and three losses, including a 114-101 victory over Washington, whereas the Rockets' last five featured three wins and two losses, including a 115-108 win over Golden State. The teams have met ten times, with Indiana winning seven and Houston three, the most recent encounter on 2 February 2026 ending 118-114 in Houston's favour. Pythia projects a 107-116 score for the game, a total of 222.3 points, and a 5% chance of overtime. The Rockets are also 25% likely to cover the home team's line. The game will conclude with Houston's projected 116-point performance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Indiana Pacers win
24.9%fair 4.01
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets win
75.1%fair 1.33
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Indiana PacersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPacers
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
L
102-110
102
110
-8
90avg 104
A27/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
109-114
109
114
-5
104avg 104
H28/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#16
L
125-145
125
145
-20
115avg 104
A31/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
90-98
90
98
-8
82avg 104
H01/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
104-108
104
108
-4
75avg 104
H03/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#9
W
107-103
107
103
+4
98avg 104
A05/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
L
102-114
102
114
-12
97avg 104
H07/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
L
122-125
122
125
-3
117avg 104
A10/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
114-101
114
101
+13
110avg 104
H12/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#15
W
106-104
106
104
+2
97avg 104
H14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-31
32-19
24-34
17-26
25-25
27-37
36-13
21-39
42-36
19-32
27-35
37-42
19-20
21-23
22-28
28-27
29-37
27-31
23-19
25-21
32-24
22-28
26-30
27-21
19-27
22-37
37-26
24-24
31-26
35-30
27-34
29-35
26-25
29-25
22-27
37-24
26-27
32-22
27-35
21-20
220.3Avg total
108.1Scored
112.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)111.2113.2224.4-2.138%
Season at home (7)104.3108.6212.9-4.329%
Season away (6)119.2118.7237.8+0.550%
Last 10 (10)108.1112.2220.3-4.130%
Last 5 (5)110.2109.4219.6+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)112.6120.7233.3-8.125%
vs Similar (12)116.5115.8232.2+0.833%
vs Weaker (2)112.5115.0227.5-2.550%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
120-110
120
110
+10
126avg 106
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
132-100
132
100
+32
127avg 106
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
L
111-116
111
116
-5
98avg 106
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
119-98
119
98
+21
110avg 106
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
109-93
109
93
+16
109avg 106
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
107-117
107
117
-10
97avg 106
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
L
99-102
99
102
-3
81avg 106
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
W
110-100
110
100
+10
107avg 106
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
W
115-108
115
108
+7
108avg 106
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
125-118
125
118
+7
117avg 106
H14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-35
31-31
28-19
29-25
23-21
34-14
38-34
37-31
20-27
31-17
33-32
27-40
35-26
27-25
30-24
27-23
29-29
28-21
25-23
27-20
30-33
27-24
27-25
23-35
23-35
24-12
28-29
24-26
32-24
22-16
23-28
33-32
35-20
21-31
29-28
30-29
27-27
36-26
29-36
33-29
220.9Avg total
114.7Scored
106.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)116.2107.4223.5+8.877%
Season at home (8)116.6106.8223.4+9.988%
Season away (5)115.4108.4223.8+7.060%
Last 10 (10)114.7106.2220.9+8.570%
Last 5 (5)111.2109.0220.2+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)110.5113.5224.0-3.050%
vs Similar (11)106.5104.1210.5+2.445%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)120.8107.4228.2+13.588%
This opponent (Indiana Pacers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%0%1751%1801%1853%1904%1956%2007%2059%21010%21511%22011%2259%2308%2356%2404%2453%2502%2551%2601%2650%2700%275
0%1751%1854%1957%20510%21511%2258%2354%2452%2551%2650%275
Pythia expects about 222 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 225-229 (11%).
Over/Under 220
Over 220
54.2%
Under 220
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225
Over 225
43.1%
Under 225
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230
Over 230
32.7%
Under 230
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Indiana Pacers total 109
Over 109
41.0%
Under 109
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Indiana Pacers total 113
Over 113
28.5%
Under 113
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Indiana Pacers total 117
Over 117
18.4%
Under 117
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 107.5
Over 107.5
76.1%
Under 107.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 111.5
Over 111.5
64.2%
Under 111.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 115.5
Over 115.5
50.7%
Under 115.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%4%7%9%0%-451%-421%-392%-362%-333%-304%-275%-246%-217%-188%-159%-129%-99%-68%-34%+06%+35%+64%+93%+122%+151%+181%+211%+24
0%-451%-392%-334%-276%-218%-159%-98%-36%+34%+92%+151%+21
Margin from Indiana Pacers's side (positive = Indiana Pacers win). Pythia's expected margin is -9.0; Indiana Pacers win by 1+ in 21% of simulations.
Spread Indiana Pacers -3
IND -3
19.9%
HOU +3
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
IND
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.
Spread Indiana Pacers 0
IND 0
24.9%
HOU 0
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
IND
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.
Spread Indiana Pacers +3
IND +3
29.7%
HOU -3
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
IND
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
Indiana PacersHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Indiana PacersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
61-50
61
50
+11
A27/10
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
52-62
52
62
-10
H28/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#16
L
61-68
61
68
-7
A31/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H01/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
56-68
56
68
-12
H03/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#9
W
54-52
54
52
+2
A05/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
L
41-64
41
64
-23
H07/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
W
66-56
66
56
+10
A10/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
55-50
55
50
+5
H12/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#15
W
58-49
58
49
+9
H14/11
NBA
110.6Avg total
54.4Scored
56.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.961.9119.7-4.040%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.963.6118.4-8.725%-
Last 30 away (14)61.359.9121.2+1.457%-
Last 10 (10)54.456.2110.6-1.850%-
Last 5 (5)54.854.2109.0+0.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)58.164.4122.5-6.431%-
vs Similar (12)57.559.1116.6-1.650%-
vs Weaker (2)58.558.0116.5+0.550%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
63-66
63
66
-3
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
57-35
57
35
+22
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
62-51
62
51
+11
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
63-53
63
53
+10
H14/11
NBA
106.1Avg total
56.7Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.350.4107.8+6.970%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.951.7111.6+8.276%-
Last 30 away (13)53.948.8102.7+5.262%-
Last 10 (10)56.749.4106.1+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.449.6105.0+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)59.058.0117.0+1.050%-
vs Similar (11)52.652.7105.4-0.145%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)60.248.1108.2+12.188%-
This opponent (Indiana Pacers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Indiana Pacerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Indiana Pacers: 109.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.427.2
55.1%
54.0%54.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.312.4
33.2%
35.1%37.2
🏀 Free throws23.417.7
75.6%
77.2%17.7
They take 86.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 115.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.429.3
53.9%
54.0%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.011.7
35.5%
35.1%35.1
🏀 Free throws26.321.3
81.0%
77.2%21.3
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Indiana Pacers
WWLLWLLLLL
Houston Rockets
WWWLLWWLWW
#21
League position
#4
-0.6
Net rating
+4.5
106.7
Offensive rating
115.9
107.3
Defensive rating
111.4
52.8%
Effective FG%
53.6%
52.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.1%
13.8%
Turnover %
13.9%
25.8%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.30
33.2%
3-point %
35.5%
70.2%
Assist %
63.2%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence106.7 · 115.9Defence107.3 · 111.4Shooting52.8% · 53.6%3-point %33.2% · 35.5%Ball care13.8% · 13.9%Off. rebounds25.8% · 32.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Indiana Pacers   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Indiana Pacers wins
3
Houston Rockets wins
DateGameScore
03/02/26Indiana Pacers v Houston Rockets114-118
30/12/25Houston Rockets v Indiana Pacers126-119
05/03/25Indiana Pacers v Houston Rockets115-102
21/11/24Houston Rockets v Indiana Pacers130-113
07/02/24Indiana Pacers v Houston Rockets132-129
27/12/23Houston Rockets v Indiana Pacers117-123
10/03/23Indiana Pacers v Houston Rockets134-125 OT
19/11/22Houston Rockets v Indiana Pacers91-99
19/03/22Houston Rockets v Indiana Pacers118-121
24/12/21Indiana Pacers v Houston Rockets118-106
Indiana Pacerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HNew York Knicks106-104
12/11/26HWashington Wizards114-101
10/11/26ADallas Mavericks122-125
07/11/26HDenver Nuggets102-114
05/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies107-103
03/11/26HAtlanta Hawks104-108
01/11/26HBrooklyn Nets90-98
31/10/26AMiami Heat125-145
28/10/26HPhiladelphia 76ers109-114
27/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks102-110
Houston Rocketslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HUtah Jazz125-118
12/11/26HGolden State Warriors115-108
10/11/26HDenver Nuggets110-100
08/11/26APhoenix Suns99-102
05/11/26HMinnesota Timberwolves107-117
03/11/26HBoston Celtics109-93
01/11/26HOklahoma City Thunder119-98
31/10/26ADallas Mavericks111-116
29/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks132-100
27/10/26HAtlanta Hawks120-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Indiana Pacers
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW38%
HomeLLLWW29%
AwayWLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %38%29%50%
Points / game111.2104.3119.2
Allowed / game113.2108.6118.7
Point differential-2.1-4.3+0.5
Avg total224.4212.9237.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%14%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)33% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW77%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %77%88%60%
Points / game116.2116.6115.4
Allowed / game107.4106.8108.4
Point differential+8.8+9.9+7.0
Avg total223.5223.4223.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
5 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
6 Minnesota Timberwolves129375%119.3105.9+13.4
7 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
8 Detroit Pistons118373%115.5107.8+7.7
9 Memphis Grizzlies128467%119.9111.8+8.1
10 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
11 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
12 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
13 Dallas Mavericks127558%113.2112.2+1.0
14 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
15 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
16 Miami Heat126650%117.2120.1-2.9
17 Cleveland Cavaliers136746%116.8115.8+1.0
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers135838%111.2113.2-2.1
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans134931%116.5125.6-9.2
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
27 Chicago Bulls112918%114.4127.7-13.4
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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