Iowa State faces Memphis on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Iowa State the clear favourite, rating them 93% to win largely because of their dominant season record and high scoring average. Iowa State has played 5 games at home, winning 3 and losing 2, and has scored an average of 83 points per game while allowing 66, placing them at the top of the league standings. Their last five games include a 62-76 loss to Tennessee, a 82-63 win over Kentucky, and a 108-74 victory against Tennessee State, showing a mix of offensive firepower and defensive resilience. Memphis, on the other hand, has played 5 away games, winning only 1 and losing 4, with an average of 66 points scored and 83 points allowed, reflecting a struggling season. Their recent results feature a 69-81 loss to Tulane, a narrow 96-95 win over Tulane on the road, and a 89-96 defeat to South Florida. In head-to-head history, Iowa State has won the sole meeting, 78-59 on 26 November 2021. Pythia projects a 83-66 score, with Iowa State covering the -14.5 spread 60% of the time and the over on the 155.5 total 33% of the time, while the chance of overtime is 2%. The game will likely see Iowa State maintain their offensive edge against a Memphis squad still finding its footing.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iowa State winLost
93.1%fair 1.07
Best odds1.08
Implied88.7%
Edge+4.4pp
Memphis winWon
6.9%fair 14.54
Best odds10.75
Implied11.3%
Edge-4.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Iowa State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
44.5%
@ 1.47-18.4pp
Under 150.5
55.5%
@ 2.55+18.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 155.5 · main lineActual: Over 155.5
Over 155.5
32.8%
@ 1.90-17.9pp
Under 155.5
67.2%
@ 1.92+17.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 160.5Actual: Under 160.5
Over 160.5
22.5%
@ 2.55-14.5pp
Under 160.5
77.5%
@ 1.47+14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Iowa State total 80.5Actual: Iowa State under 80.5
Over 80.5
59.3%
@ 1.35-7.8pp
Under 80.5
40.7%
@ 2.75+7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.75
Iowa State total 84.5 · main lineActual: Iowa State under 84.5
Over 84.5
43.2%
@ 1.85-7.2pp
Under 84.5
56.8%
@ 1.95+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Iowa State total 88.5Actual: Iowa State under 88.5
Over 88.5
28.2%
@ 2.62-8.4pp
Under 88.5
71.8%
@ 1.45+8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Memphis total 66.5Actual: Memphis over 66.5
Over 66.5
45.8%
@ 1.40-20.9pp
Under 66.5
54.2%
@ 3.00+20.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.55
Memphis total 70.5 · main lineActual: Memphis over 70.5
Over 70.5
30.8%
@ 1.91-19.1pp
Under 70.5
69.2%
@ 1.85+19.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Memphis total 74.5Actual: Memphis over 74.5
Over 74.5
18.6%
@ 2.65-16.9pp
Under 74.5
81.4%
@ 1.45+16.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.37
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Iowa State -17.5Actual: Memphis +17.5
IOWA -17.5
49.0%
@ 2.30+8.5pp
MEMP +17.5
51.0%
@ 1.55-8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
MEMP
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Spread Iowa State -14.5 · main lineActual: Memphis +14.5
IOWA -14.5
59.6%
@ 1.90+8.9pp
MEMP +14.5
40.4%
@ 1.93-8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.85
MEMP
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
Spread Iowa State -11.5Actual: Memphis +11.5
IOWA -11.5
69.5%
@ 1.62+10.9pp
MEMP +11.5
30.5%
@ 2.35-10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
MEMP
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.29
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Iowa StateMemphis
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Memphis under 71
71.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Lost
Memphis under 71.5
72.6%
1.78
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.67
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Under 157
70.9%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.74
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.71
-
+17.5pp
Won
Under 157.5
71.6%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
-
+17.1pp
Won
Memphis under 74.5
81.4%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.37
-
-
+16.9pp
Lost
Memphis under 72.5
75.8%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Lost
Memphis under 77.5
88.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Lost
Under 158
73.1%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Under 158.5
73.6%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Under 159
75.1%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Memphis under 73.5
78.7%
1.44
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Memphis under 76.5
86.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
Under 159.5
75.6%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Memphis under 75.5
83.9%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
Under 160
77.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Under 160.5
77.5%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Under 161
78.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Under 161.5
79.3%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Under 164
83.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Under 162
80.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Under 162.5
81.0%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 163
82.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 164.5
84.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Memphis under 78.5
89.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Under 163.5
82.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Iowa State -5.5
85.3%
1.26
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Memphis under 80.5
92.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
86.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Iowa State -6
84.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Lost
Under 165.5
85.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Memphis under 79.5
91.5%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Lost
Iowa State -3.5
89.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Lost
Iowa State -11
71.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
Iowa State -6.5
83.1%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
Memphis under 81.5
94.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Iowa State (regulation)
92.0%
1.10
1xBet
1.14
Betano
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.08
-
-
+8.9pp
Lost
Iowa State -10
74.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Iowa State -9
77.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Iowa State -10.5
72.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Iowa State -9.5
75.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Memphis under 82.5
95.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Iowa State under 88.5
71.8%
1.44
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Iowa State -8
80.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Iowa State -8.5
78.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Iowa State -7
82.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Under 171.5
92.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Iowa State -7.5
80.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Iowa State under 90.5
78.2%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Iowa State under 89.5
75.1%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Under 170.5
91.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Memphis under 84.5
96.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Iowa State under 91.5
81.1%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Under 176.5
95.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 175.5
95.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Iowa State +1.5
93.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Iowa State +6.5
97.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Iowa State under 93.5
86.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.4%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9pp
-
Iowa State win
93.1%
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.08
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
WilliamHill
1.05
+4.4pp
Lost
Iowa State over 67.5
93.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Iowa State over 65.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Iowa State over 66.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Iowa State over 68.5
92.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Iowa State over 69.5
91.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Iowa State over 70.5
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Iowa State over 71.5
87.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Iowa State over 74.5
80.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Iowa State over 72.5
85.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Iowa State over 73.5
82.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Iowa State over 77.5
70.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Lost
Iowa State over 75.5
77.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Over 130.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Memphis over 55.5
84.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Iowa State over 76.5
73.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Lost
Memphis over 56.5
81.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Memphis +23.5
71.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Memphis over 57.5
78.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Over 135.5
78.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Over 136.5
76.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Memphis over 58.5
75.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
Memphis over 59.5
72.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.