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Iowa State vs Niagara Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 90-57
Projected total 147.4
Scheduled
Position#152
Record2-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game61.3
Iowa State
USA
Vs
100%
■ IOWA 100%■ NIAG 0%
Pythia win probability
Niagara
USA
Position#383
Record0-3
FormWLLLL
Points / game63.0
Allowed / game84.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Iowa State hosts Niagara on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Iowa State the clear favourite, rating them at 100% for a win because their 2-1 season record, 81.0 points per game and 61.3 allowed per game place them 147th in the league while Niagara sits 382nd with 0-3, 63.0 points per game and 84.0 allowed per game. Iowa State's home slate shows a 2-1 record, 81.0 points per game and 61.3 allowed per game, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, highlighted by a 84-47 victory over Southern Univ. and a 83-57 win over Southern Miss, before a 76-80 loss to Memphis. Niagara's road record is 0-2, 61.0 points per game and 89.5 allowed per game, with a last-five showing one win and four losses, including a 76-88 loss to Bowling Green and a 46-91 defeat by West Virginia. The Pythia model projects a 90-57 score for Iowa State, a total of 147.4 points, and an over probability of 62% on the 142.5 line, with no chance of overtime. The game ends with Iowa State's 90-57 victory.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Iowa State win
99.5%fair 1.00
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Niagara win
0.5%fair 201.92
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Iowa StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arizona State
#194
W
86-65
86
65
+21
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
91-42
91
42
+49
H11/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
75-53
75
53
+22
A12/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
80-82
80
82
-2
A13/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
W
108-74
108
74
+34
H20/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
82-63
82
63
+19
H22/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
62-76
62
76
-14
H28/03
NCAA
Memphis
#172
L
76-80
76
80
-4
H03/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
83-57
83
57
+26
H07/11
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#406
W
84-47
84
47
+37
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-41
49-24
45-16
46-26
36-33
39-20
43-37
37-45
55-29
53-45
31-30
51-33
33-34
29-42
39-40
37-40
46-29
37-28
41-18
43-29
146.6Avg total
82.7Scored
63.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.061.3142.3+19.767%
Season at home (3)81.061.3142.3+19.767%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.763.9146.6+18.870%
Last 5 (5)77.464.6142.0+12.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)69.074.0143.0-5.033%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)79.764.7144.4+15.074%
This opponent (Niagara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NiagaraUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quinnipiac
#123
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A07/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
L
69-76
69
76
-7
H13/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
70-68
70
68
+2
H15/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
63-76
63
76
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A22/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
W
78-76 OT
78
76
+2
H27/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
66-73
66
73
-7
H01/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#9
L
46-91
46
91
-45
A03/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#83
L
67-73
67
73
-6
H07/11
NCAA
Bowling Green
#72
L
76-88
76
88
-12
A13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-36
31-20
27-35
42-41
34-30
36-38
31-31
32-45
28-27
34-40
31-32
37-36
28-30
38-43
30-43
16-48
34-42
33-31
31-44
45-44
139.6Avg total
65.2Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)63.084.0147.0-21.00%
Season at home (1)67.073.0140.0-6.00%
Season away (2)61.089.5150.5-28.50%
Last 10 (10)65.274.4139.6-9.220%
Last 5 (5)66.680.2146.8-13.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)62.575.0137.5-12.512%
vs Similar (4)65.866.2132.0-0.550%
vs Weaker (1)62.067.0129.0-5.00%
This opponent (Iowa State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5
Over 138.5
71.0%
@ 1.52+7.5pp
Under 138.5
29.0%
@ 2.75-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 143.5 · main line
Over 143.5
59.6%
@ 1.98+10.2pp
Under 143.5
40.4%
@ 1.95-10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 148.5
Over 148.5
47.2%
@ 2.62+10.9pp
Under 148.5
52.8%
@ 1.50-10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.42

📊 3. Team Totals

Iowa State total 87
Over 87
63.1%
Under 87
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iowa State total 91 · main line
Over 91
46.5%
@ 1.85-3.5pp
Under 91
53.5%
@ 1.85+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Iowa State total 95
Over 95
30.6%
Under 95
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niagara total 47.5
Over 47.5
no forecast
@ 1.36
Under 47.5
no forecast
@ 3.60
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.60
Betano
2.72
Niagara total 52 · main line
Over 52
70.7%
@ 1.85+20.7pp
Under 52
29.3%
@ 1.85-20.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Niagara total 56
Over 56
55.0%
Under 56
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Iowa State -42
IOWA -42
no forecast
@ 2.20
NIAG +42
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Bet365
2.20
NIAG
Bet365
1.60
Spread Iowa State -39 · main line
IOWA -39
no forecast
@ 1.89
NIAG +39
no forecast
@ 1.96
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Bet365
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
NIAG
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Spread Iowa State -36
IOWA -36
no forecast
@ 1.60
NIAG +36
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Bet365
1.60
NIAG
Bet365
2.20

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.9+9.91st half: -5.2-5.22nd half2nd half: +8.9+8.92nd half: -4.2-4.2
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.9+9.91st half: -5.2-5.22nd half2nd half: +8.9+8.92nd half: -4.2-4.2
Iowa StateNiagara
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Iowa StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arizona State
#194
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
45-16
45
16
+29
H11/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A12/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A13/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
W
55-29
55
29
+26
H20/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H22/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H28/03
NCAA
Memphis
#172
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H03/11
NCAA
Southern Miss
#227
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#406
W
41-18
41
18
+23
H11/11
NCAA
71.3Avg total
40.6Scored
30.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)39.331.170.4+8.273%67%
Last 30 at home (19)41.830.672.4+11.279%74%
Last 30 away (11)35.031.966.9+3.164%55%
Last 10 (10)40.630.771.3+9.970%60%
Last 5 (5)38.030.268.2+7.860%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)37.038.075.0-1.067%67%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)39.630.369.9+9.374%67%
This opponent (Niagara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NiagaraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quinnipiac
#123
L
24-36
24
36
-12
A07/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H13/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H15/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A21/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A22/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H27/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
28-30
28
30
-2
H01/03
NCAA
West Virginia
#9
L
30-43
30
43
-13
A03/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#83
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H07/11
NCAA
Bowling Green
#72
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A13/11
NCAA
64.8Avg total
29.8Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)30.634.465.0-3.933%30%
Last 30 at home (13)32.232.664.8-0.538%31%
Last 30 away (17)29.435.865.2-6.529%29%
Last 10 (10)29.835.064.8-5.220%30%
Last 5 (5)30.838.269.0-7.40%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)29.635.665.2-6.021%29%
vs Similar (4)34.233.067.2+1.275%50%
vs Weaker (1)28.027.055.0+1.0100%0%
This opponent (Iowa State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Iowa State -22.5 · main line
IOWA -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
NIAG +22.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Iowa State 1st half total 45.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Niagara 1st half total 22.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Iowa State -23.5
IOWA -23.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
NIAG +23.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Iowa State -21.5
IOWA -21.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
NIAG +21.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.65
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Iowa State -24.5
IOWA -24.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
NIAG +24.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread Iowa State -20.5
IOWA -20.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
NIAG +20.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.67
Under
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Iowa State -25.5
IOWA -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
NIAG +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Iowa State -19.5
IOWA -19.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
NIAG +19.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Spread Iowa State -26.5
IOWA -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
NIAG +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
IOWA
no forecast
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
NIAG
no forecast
@ 13.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
IOWA win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
NIAG win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: IOWA leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Niagara over 51.571.7%1.85
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80		+22.0pp
Niagara over 5270.7%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+20.7pp
Over 135.577.1%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+9.2pp
Over 138.571.0%1.46
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.40		---+7.5pp
Iowa State under 98.580.0%1.27
Bet365
1.27		----+6.6pp
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🔒 26 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Iowa State wins
0
Niagara wins
No previous meetings.
Iowa Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HSouthern Univ.84-47
07/11/26HSouthern Miss83-57
03/11/26HMemphis76-80
28/03/26HTennessee62-76
22/03/26HKentucky82-63
20/03/26HTennessee State108-74
13/03/26AArizona80-82
12/03/26ATexas Tech75-53
11/03/26HArizona State91-42
07/03/26HArizona State86-65
Niagaralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26ABowling Green76-88
07/11/26HMorgan State67-73
03/11/26AWest Virginia46-91
01/03/26HMerrimack Warriors66-73
27/02/26HQuinnipiac78-76 OT
22/02/26ARider62-67
21/02/26AMount St. Mary's63-76
15/02/26HIona70-68
13/02/26HManhattan69-76
07/02/26AQuinnipiac55-56

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Iowa State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeLWW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game81.081.0-
Allowed / game61.361.3-
Point differential+19.7+19.7-
Avg total142.3142.3-
Over 143.533%33%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Niagara
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game63.067.061.0
Allowed / game84.073.089.5
Point differential-21.0-6.0-28.5
Avg total147.0140.0150.5
Over 143.533%0%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Baylor330100%95.359.7+35.7
2 West Virginia330100%85.753.3+32.3
3 Kansas330100%91.059.7+31.3
4 TCU440100%95.067.2+27.8
5 Texas Tech440100%81.053.8+27.2
6 Arizona State440100%85.563.2+22.2
7 Brigham Young440100%96.575.8+20.8
8 Utah Utes330100%72.761.3+11.3
9 UCF Knights440100%85.877.2+8.5
10 Cincinnati43175%79.063.0+16.0
11 Arizona43175%87.274.0+13.2
12 Houston32167%84.762.3+22.3
13 Oklahoma State32167%92.772.0+20.7
14 Iowa State32167%81.061.3+19.7
15 Kansas State32167%83.376.0+7.3
16 Colorado42250%74.069.5+4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Quinnipiac42250%68.575.5-7.0
6 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
7 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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