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Italy vs Croatia Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 06 Sep 2022
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 81-76
22-17 20-17 13-25 26-17
Position#11
Record5-4
FormWWWLL
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game79.8
Italy 🏆
vs
Position#12
Record6-3
FormWWLWW
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game69.1
EuropeEuroBasketRound 4
Other2022
Meetings · Italy v Croatia
06 Sep 2022
ITAL81
CROA76
28 Jun 2018
ITAL72
CROA78
05 Jul 2016
ITAL67
CROA60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Croatia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Iceland
#31
L
105-107 OT
105
107
-2
no box
A24/02
World Cup
Iceland
#31
W
95-87
95
87
+8
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Netherlands
#77
W
92-81
92
81
+11
no box
A04/07
World Cup
Serbia
#1
L
86-90
86
90
-4
no box
H19/08
DBB Supercup
Czech Republic
#4
W
96-80
96
80
+16
no box
H20/08
DBB Supercup
Ukraine
#34
W
97-89
97
89
+8
no box
A24/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
91-84
91
84
+7
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#34
W
83-62
83
62
+21
no box
H02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
81-85
81
85
-4
no box
A03/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
L
73-84
73
84
-11
no box
A05/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-21
15-23
26-21
26-20
27-28
26-17
21-17
21-25
22-17
32-26
18-21
20-17
23-24
30-20
19-21
14-25
25-18
24-18
26-23
21-21
19-19
15-26
38-22
25-22
25-19
18-19
23-28
25-18
21-18
31-15
17-19
14-10
17-23
23-24
17-24
24-14
21-16
21-22
15-19
16-27
174.8Avg total
89.9Scored
84.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)83.179.8162.9+3.356%
Season at home (4)89.878.8168.5+11.075%
Season away (5)77.880.6158.4-2.840%
Last 10 (10)89.984.9174.8+5.060%
Last 5 (5)85.080.8165.8+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)79.888.8168.6-9.00%
vs Similar ◀ (10)85.782.8168.5+2.960%
vs Weaker (15)89.377.3166.6+11.987%
This opponent (Croatia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCroatia
Date
Competition
Finland
#22
L
71-77
71
77
-6
no box
A28/11
World Cup
Sweden
#33
L
64-70
64
70
-6
no box
H25/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
W
105-98 OT
105
98
+7
no box
A28/02
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
69-97
69
97
-28
no box
A30/06
World Cup
Finland
#22
L
79-81
79
81
-2
no box
H03/07
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
72-69
72
69
+3
71avg 78
A25/08
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
84-53
84
53
+31
86avg 78
H28/08
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
85-89
85
89
-4
no box
H02/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
86-65
86
65
+21
no box
A03/09
EuroBasket
Estonia
#34
W
73-70
73
70
+3
no box
H05/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-14
19-20
21-25
16-18
15-18
20-17
10-17
19-18
14-21
12-20
24-18
29-20
8-33
27-21
16-22
18-21
17-21
17-22
27-17
18-21
11-15
10-16
28-16
23-22
22-10
28-16
20-15
14-12
16-24
14-22
32-24
23-19
20-17
17-14
35-9
14-25
20-16
13-13
20-19
20-22
155.7Avg total
78.8Scored
76.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)76.269.1145.3+7.167%
Season at home (5)73.268.4141.6+4.860%
Season away (4)80.070.0150.0+10.075%
Last 10 (10)78.876.9155.7+1.950%
Last 5 (5)80.069.2149.2+10.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)75.282.0157.2-6.821%
vs Similar ◀ (5)76.277.6153.8-1.440%
vs Weaker (11)74.663.6138.3+11.082%
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +5.1+5.1Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -0.4-0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +5.1+5.1Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -0.4-0.4
ItalyCroatia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iceland
#31
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A24/02
World Cup
Iceland
#31
W
53-45
53
45
+8
H27/02
World Cup
Netherlands
#77
W
54-43
54
43
+11
A04/07
World Cup
Serbia
#1
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H19/08
DBB Supercup
Czech Republic
#4
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H20/08
DBB Supercup
Ukraine
#34
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A24/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#34
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A03/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A05/09
EuroBasket
86.6Avg total
45.3Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.440.083.4+3.460%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.739.884.4+4.969%-
Last 30 away (14)42.040.382.3+1.750%-
Last 10 (10)45.341.386.6+4.070%-
Last 5 (5)42.240.282.4+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)43.843.687.4+0.240%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)41.039.680.6+1.470%-
vs Weaker (15)44.939.184.0+5.960%-
This opponent (Croatia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CroatiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Finland
#22
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A28/11
World Cup
Sweden
#33
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H25/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A28/02
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A30/06
World Cup
Finland
#22
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H03/07
World Cup
Poland
#24
L
21-31
21
31
-10
A25/08
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
50-26
50
26
+24
H28/08
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H02/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A03/09
EuroBasket
Estonia
#34
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H05/09
EuroBasket
70.5Avg total
33.5Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.435.573.0+1.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.132.570.6+5.767%-
Last 30 away (15)36.738.675.3-1.947%-
Last 10 (10)33.537.070.5-3.530%-
Last 5 (5)34.232.666.8+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)36.739.976.6-3.136%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)38.439.678.0-1.240%-
vs Weaker (11)37.928.266.1+9.791%-
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.
Croatiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Croatia: 78.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 21% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.521.0
59.2%
-42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.56.5
25.5%
-19.5
🏀 Free throws23.016.5
71.7%
-16.5
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Italy wins
2
Croatia wins
DateGameScore
28/06/18Italy v Croatia72-78
26/11/17Croatia v Italy64-80
09/07/16Croatia v Italy84-78 OT
05/07/16Italy v Croatia67-60
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/09/22AUkraine73-84
03/09/22AGreece81-85
02/09/22HEstonia83-62
27/08/22HGeorgia91-84
24/08/22AUkraine97-89
20/08/22HCzech Republic96-80
19/08/22HSerbia86-90
04/07/22ANetherlands92-81
27/02/22HIceland95-87
24/02/22AIceland105-107 OT
Croatialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/09/22HEstonia73-70
03/09/22AGreat Britain86-65
02/09/22HGreece85-89
28/08/22HSwitzerland84-53
25/08/22APoland72-69
03/07/22HFinland79-81
30/06/22ASlovenia69-97
28/02/22ASweden105-98 OT
25/02/22HSweden64-70
28/11/21AFinland71-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
EuroBasket 2022
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL56%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %56%75%40%
Points / game83.189.877.8
Allowed / game79.878.880.6
Point differential+3.3+11.0-2.8
Avg total162.9168.5158.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %11%25%0%
Croatia
EuroBasket 2022
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW67%
HomeWWLLW60%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %67%60%75%
Points / game76.273.280.0
Allowed / game69.168.470.0
Point differential+7.1+4.8+10.0
Avg total145.3141.6150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%40%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Greece108280%82.578.3+4.2
2 Serbia97278%88.474.6+13.9
3 Israel97278%80.775.7+5.0
4 Belgium1410471%79.271.1+8.1
5 Spain107370%86.074.7+11.3
6 Bosnia & Herzegovina107370%80.073.4+6.6
7 Ukraine107370%78.572.0+6.5
8 Slovenia107370%84.678.4+6.2
9 France107370%76.473.5+2.9
10 Russia64267%76.767.5+9.2
11 Croatia96367%76.269.1+7.1
12 Denmark1812667%79.576.6+2.9
13 Great Britain1811761%76.874.9+1.8
14 Poland106460%80.877.1+3.7
15 Turkey106460%78.677.3+1.3
16 North Macedonia148657%78.177.2+0.9
17 Italy95456%83.179.8+3.3
18 Belarus84450%78.073.9+4.1
19 Lithuania105550%84.581.8+2.7
20 Armenia42250%74.874.0+0.8
21 Finland105550%79.280.0-0.8
22 Portugal126650%74.275.0-0.8
23 Montenegro105550%73.976.0-2.1
24 Georgia105550%81.686.1-4.5
25 Romania147750%73.778.5-4.8
26 Sweden104640%74.374.6-0.3
27 Germany104640%81.782.1-0.4
28 Hungary104640%74.981.8-6.9
29 Iceland83538%79.981.9-2.0
30 Slovakia83538%75.078.5-3.5
31 Switzerland145936%82.084.3-2.3
32 Austria103730%74.578.4-3.9
33 Estonia103730%75.879.7-3.9
34 Netherlands103730%69.675.1-5.5
35 Czech Republic103730%80.988.7-7.8
36 Bulgaria103730%77.488.0-10.6
37 Luxembourg82625%72.583.4-10.9
38 Latvia61517%79.080.0-1.0
39 Cyprus1221017%66.376.8-10.4
40 Kosovo81712%78.883.6-4.9
41 Albania8080%65.283.1-17.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 41 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy2220132681
Croatia1717251776
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