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Italy vs Spain Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 02 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 67-63
10-18 20-18 19-11 18-16
Position#7
Record2-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game72.0
Italy 🏆
vs
Position#15
Record2-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game82.7
Allowed / game65.7
EuropeEuroBasketRound 4· Spyros Kyprianou Arena
Other2025
Meetings · Italy v Spain
02 Sep 2025
ITAL67
SPAI63
11 Nov 2022
ITAL84
SPAI88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Spain winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Slovenia
#24
L
85-89
85
89
-4
no box
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
87-80
87
80
+7
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
83-62
83
62
+21
no box
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
95-71
95
71
+24
90avg 73
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
74-81
74
81
-7
62avg 73
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
80-67
80
67
+13
75avg 73
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
67-71
67
71
-4
60avg 73
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
66-75
66
75
-9
54avg 73
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
W
78-62
78
62
+16
74avg 73
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
96-79
96
79
+17
97avg 73
A31/08
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-15
23-27
19-28
25-19
24-24
26-15
18-17
19-24
17-15
19-22
28-9
19-16
27-12
22-13
16-29
30-17
9-22
20-10
27-26
18-23
17-12
31-19
12-19
20-17
10-13
17-19
23-10
17-29
12-22
20-14
13-20
21-19
18-10
14-22
21-15
25-15
22-21
22-19
28-21
24-18
154.8Avg total
81.1Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)80.072.0152.0+8.067%
Season at home (1)78.062.0140.0+16.0100%
Season away (2)81.077.0158.0+4.050%
Last 10 (10)81.173.7154.8+7.460%
Last 5 (5)77.470.8148.2+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.878.7160.5+3.267%
vs Similar ◀ (13)82.681.6164.2+1.054%
vs Weaker (11)84.570.1154.5+14.482%
This opponent (Spain) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSpain
Date
Competition
Canada
#4
L
85-88
85
88
-3
no box
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#2
L
75-79
75
79
-4
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
L
53-58
53
58
-5
no box
A25/02
EuroBasket
Slovakia
#23
W
76-72 OT
76
72
+4
63avg 72
A22/11
EuroBasket
Slovakia
#23
W
84-71
84
71
+13
82avg 72
H25/11
EuroBasket
Latvia
#2
L
66-83
66
83
-17
59avg 72
A20/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
W
59-52
59
52
+7
55avg 72
H23/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
L
69-83
69
83
-14
59avg 72
A28/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
88-67
88
67
+21
87avg 72
H30/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
91-47
91
47
+44
97avg 72
H31/08
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-21
27-17
25-23
12-27
14-23
23-17
20-17
18-22
14-11
12-8
13-21
14-18
14-10
24-15
10-21
11-13
22-18
25-14
24-25
13-14
17-20
17-21
16-22
16-20
11-11
11-14
20-15
17-12
17-20
18-17
14-20
20-26
24-16
20-14
28-17
16-20
19-9
22-8
29-12
21-18
144.6Avg total
74.6Scored
70.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)82.765.7148.3+17.067%
Season at home (2)89.557.0146.5+32.5100%
Season away (1)69.083.0152.0-14.00%
Last 10 (10)74.670.0144.6+4.650%
Last 5 (5)74.666.4141.0+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)67.672.0139.6-4.420%
vs Similar ◀ (5)79.675.6155.2+4.060%
vs Weaker (20)87.072.4159.4+14.690%
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: +5.4+5.4Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -3.2-3.2
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: +5.4+5.4Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -3.2-3.2
ItalySpain
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Slovenia
#24
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H09/09
World Cup
Turkey
#20
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H22/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A25/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
W
49-25
49
25
+24
A22/11
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A31/08
EuroBasket
73.4Avg total
38.8Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.537.778.3+2.853%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.136.977.0+3.150%-
Last 30 away (16)40.938.479.4+2.556%-
Last 10 (10)38.834.673.4+4.240%-
Last 5 (5)36.634.270.8+2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.340.780.0-1.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)39.839.579.3+0.254%-
vs Weaker (11)42.134.076.1+8.164%-
This opponent (Spain) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SpainLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canada
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#2
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H22/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
W
26-19
26
19
+7
A25/02
EuroBasket
Slovakia
#23
W
38-25
38
25
+13
A22/11
EuroBasket
Slovakia
#23
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H25/11
EuroBasket
Latvia
#2
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A20/02
EuroBasket
Belgium
#18
L
22-25
22
25
-3
H23/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A28/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H30/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
41-17
41
17
+24
H31/08
EuroBasket
67.6Avg total
37.2Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.034.475.4+6.670%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.734.476.1+7.362%-
Last 30 away (14)40.134.474.6+5.779%-
Last 10 (10)37.230.467.6+6.860%-
Last 5 (5)35.230.065.2+5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)33.432.666.0+0.840%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)40.032.072.0+8.0100%-
vs Weaker (20)43.135.578.6+7.670%-
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 79.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.718.1
50.8%
52.4%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.49.9
37.4%
33.4%29.7
🏀 Free throws18.913.7
72.4%
73.1%13.7
They take 62.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Spaintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Spain: 72.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.617.2
48.4%
52.4%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.27.9
30.1%
33.4%23.7
🏀 Free throws20.714.2
68.8%
73.1%14.2
They take 61.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/9 games with a box score before 02 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy
WWLLWLWWWL
Spain
WWLWLWWLLL
#7
League position
#15
+11.8
Net rating
+7.5
111.5
Offensive rating
99.1
99.6
Defensive rating
91.6
53.0%
Effective FG%
47.0%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
46.0%
16.9%
Turnover %
19.1%
32.2%
Off. rebound %
30.9%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.33
37.4%
3-point %
30.1%
73.8%
Assist %
76.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence111.5 · 99.1Defence99.6 · 91.6Shooting53.0% · 47.0%3-point %37.4% · 30.1%Ball care16.9% · 19.1%Off. rebounds32.2% · 30.9%Free throws0.30 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Italy   ■ Spain
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Italy wins
2
Spain wins
DateGameScore
26/02/23Spain v Italy68-72
11/11/22Italy v Spain84-88 OT
06/09/19Spain v Italy67-60
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/25ABosnia & Herzegovina96-79
30/08/25HGeorgia78-62
28/08/25AGreece66-75
23/02/25HHungary67-71
20/02/25ATurkey80-67
25/11/24HIceland74-81
22/11/24AIceland95-71
25/02/24AHungary83-62
22/02/24HTurkey87-80
09/09/23HSlovenia85-89
Spainlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/25HCyprus91-47
30/08/25HBosnia & Herzegovina88-67
28/08/25AGeorgia69-83
23/02/25HBelgium59-52
20/02/25ALatvia66-83
25/11/24HSlovakia84-71
22/11/24ASlovakia76-72 OT
25/02/24ABelgium53-58
22/02/24HLatvia75-79
03/09/23HCanada85-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game80.078.081.0
Allowed / game72.062.077.0
Point differential+8.0+16.0+4.0
Avg total152.0140.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Spain
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game82.789.569.0
Allowed / game65.757.083.0
Point differential+17.0+32.5-14.0
Avg total148.3146.5152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Germany440100%109.576.0+33.5
2 Turkey440100%91.067.2+23.8
3 Serbia440100%86.068.2+17.8
4 Poland330100%85.078.0+7.0
5 Greece43175%85.567.0+18.5
6 Finland43175%91.278.8+12.5
7 Lithuania43175%89.280.5+8.8
8 Israel43175%80.273.8+6.5
9 Spain32167%82.765.7+17.0
10 Italy32167%80.072.0+8.0
11 France32167%88.080.3+7.7
12 Slovenia42250%90.889.0+1.8
13 Latvia42250%75.877.2-1.5
14 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%79.281.2-2.0
15 Georgia42250%72.875.5-2.8
16 Sweden41325%83.086.0-3.0
17 Belgium41325%73.283.5-10.2
18 Estonia41325%71.882.2-10.5
19 Portugal41325%61.875.8-14.0
20 Montenegro41325%73.891.5-17.8
21 Iceland4040%72.281.2-9.0
22 Czech Republic4040%65.881.2-15.5
23 Cyprus4040%60.292.8-32.5
24 Great Britain4040%66.2100.2-34.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy1020191867
Spain1818111663
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