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Italy vs Ukraine Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 23 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 85-75
23-21 20-22 15-14 27-18
Position#17
Record6-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game87.2
Italy 🏆
vs
Position#34
Record5-5
FormLLLWW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game78.5
EuropeWorld CupRound 11
Other2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ukraine winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#32
W
91-84
91
84
+7
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#34
W
83-62
83
62
+21
H02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
81-85
81
85
-4
A03/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
L
73-84
73
84
-11
A05/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H06/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
90-56
90
56
+34
A08/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#3
W
94-86
94
86
+8
A11/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
85-93 OT
85
93
-8
A14/09
EuroBasket
Spain
#7
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
85-84
85
84
+1
A14/11
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-19
18-19
23-28
25-18
21-18
31-15
17-19
14-10
17-23
23-24
17-24
24-14
21-16
21-22
15-19
16-27
22-17
20-17
13-25
26-17
29-20
18-17
20-17
23-2
20-28
25-23
21-17
28-18
20-27
11-11
31-18
15-21
18-22
15-14
16-19
21-15
24-19
19-21
17-18
25-26
164.5Avg total
84.7Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)89.187.2176.3+1.967%
Season at home (4)86.283.0169.2+3.275%
Season away (5)91.490.6182.0+0.860%
Last 10 (10)84.779.8164.5+4.960%
Last 5 (5)87.681.4169.0+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)83.387.7171.0-4.317%
vs Similar ◀ (11)87.786.4174.1+1.464%
vs Weaker (13)87.377.2164.5+10.185%
This opponent (Ukraine) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UkraineLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Italy
#17
L
89-97
89
97
-8
H24/08
World Cup
Iceland
#31
L
88-91 OT
88
91
-3
A27/08
World Cup
Great Britain
#14
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H02/09
EuroBasket
Estonia
#34
W
74-73
74
73
+1
A03/09
EuroBasket
Italy
#11
W
84-73
84
73
+11
H05/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
79-99
79
99
-20
A06/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
L
85-90
85
90
-5
A08/09
EuroBasket
Poland
#18
L
86-94
86
94
-8
H11/09
EuroBasket
Netherlands
#77
W
96-77
96
77
+19
A11/11
World Cup
Iceland
#31
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H14/11
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
26-15
22-38
22-25
19-14
22-22
14-27
25-17
22-17
20-15
24-12
24-17
15-21
18-14
23-26
18-12
16-21
22-21
19-15
27-16
20-23
26-16
11-32
22-28
21-21
21-24
25-22
18-23
21-24
24-18
22-27
19-25
28-21
31-14
19-21
18-21
14-18
21-15
16-20
28-19
167.7Avg total
85.0Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)81.578.5160.0+3.050%
Season at home (5)80.274.6154.8+5.660%
Season away (5)82.882.4165.2+0.440%
Last 10 (10)85.082.7167.7+2.350%
Last 5 (5)85.086.4171.4-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.575.5149.0-2.025%
vs Similar ◀ (14)78.983.1162.0-4.329%
vs Weaker (12)81.569.8151.3+11.775%
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +5.7+5.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -4.5-4.5Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: +1.8+1.8
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +5.7+5.7Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -4.5-4.5Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: +1.8+1.8
ItalyUkraine
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#32
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#34
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A03/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A05/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H06/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A08/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#3
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A11/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A14/09
EuroBasket
Spain
#7
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A14/11
World Cup
81.0Avg total
41.8Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.341.184.3+2.257%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.240.184.3+4.167%-
Last 30 away (15)42.342.084.3+0.347%-
Last 10 (10)41.839.281.0+2.660%-
Last 5 (5)39.840.480.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)42.542.585.0+0.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)41.340.581.7+0.864%-
vs Weaker (13)45.340.986.2+4.462%-
This opponent (Ukraine) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UkraineLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Italy
#17
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H24/08
World Cup
Iceland
#31
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A27/08
World Cup
Great Britain
#14
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H02/09
EuroBasket
Estonia
#34
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A03/09
EuroBasket
Italy
#11
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H05/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A06/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A08/09
EuroBasket
Poland
#18
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H11/09
EuroBasket
Netherlands
#77
W
59-35
59
35
+24
A11/11
World Cup
Iceland
#31
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H14/11
World Cup
79.9Avg total
42.6Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.936.975.8+2.057%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.633.570.1+3.160%-
Last 30 away (15)41.140.381.5+0.853%-
Last 10 (10)42.637.379.9+5.370%-
Last 5 (5)45.438.884.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)33.839.573.2-5.825%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.039.178.1-0.150%-
vs Weaker (12)40.433.473.8+7.075%-
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Italy wins
1
Ukraine wins
DateGameScore
05/09/22Ukraine v Italy84-73
24/08/22Ukraine v Italy89-97
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/22AGeorgia85-84
11/11/22HSpain84-88 OT
14/09/22AFrance85-93 OT
11/09/22ASerbia94-86
08/09/22AGreat Britain90-56
06/09/22HCroatia81-76
05/09/22AUkraine73-84
03/09/22AGreece81-85
02/09/22HEstonia83-62
27/08/22HGeorgia91-84
Ukrainelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/22HIceland79-72
11/11/22ANetherlands96-77
11/09/22HPoland86-94
08/09/22ACroatia85-90
06/09/22AGreece79-99
05/09/22HItaly84-73
03/09/22AEstonia74-73
02/09/22HGreat Britain90-61
27/08/22AIceland88-91 OT
24/08/22HItaly89-97

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW67%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLLWWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %67%75%60%
Points / game89.186.291.4
Allowed / game87.283.090.6
Point differential+1.9+3.2+0.8
Avg total176.3169.2182.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %22%25%20%
Ukraine
World Cup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW50%
HomeWWLLW60%
AwayLLWLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %50%60%40%
Points / game81.580.282.8
Allowed / game78.574.682.4
Point differential+3.0+5.6+0.4
Avg total160.0154.8165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%40%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (1)33% (3)
Overtime %10%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Canada10100100%102.668.1+34.5
2 Russia330100%87.070.7+16.3
3 Ivory Coast990100%76.466.2+10.2
4 Latvia1413193%85.371.0+14.3
5 Australia1110191%81.454.9+26.5
6 Spain1110191%84.567.3+17.2
7 Lebanon109190%88.965.7+23.2
8 South Sudan98189%75.762.2+13.4
9 France119282%82.161.7+20.4
10 China119282%79.465.3+14.1
11 Lithuania119282%78.171.1+7.0
12 Germany108280%80.070.7+9.3
13 Finland108280%80.075.2+4.8
14 Egypt97278%74.459.0+15.4
15 Angola97278%73.661.2+12.3
16 New Zealand86275%88.866.9+21.9
17 Puerto Rico86275%78.674.5+4.1
18 Dominican Republic107370%81.372.0+9.3
19 Venezuela107370%75.566.2+9.3
20 Argentina107370%78.671.4+7.2
21 Slovenia107370%83.779.2+4.5
22 Serbia107370%77.874.9+2.9
23 Brazil96367%86.669.3+17.2
24 Belarus128467%80.267.2+13.0
25 Senegal96367%72.664.0+8.6
26 Montenegro1510567%75.771.1+4.6
27 Greece96367%77.674.7+2.9
28 Italy96367%89.187.2+1.9
29 Georgia117464%80.779.0+1.7
30 Philippines85362%75.672.6+3.0
31 Mexico85362%80.181.0-0.9
32 Jordan106460%75.771.4+4.3
33 Sweden148657%82.976.2+6.7
34 Nigeria95456%71.265.2+6.0
35 Tunisia95456%63.061.6+1.4
36 Uruguay95456%72.273.3-1.1
37 Iceland2011955%80.880.8+0.0
38 Iran116555%71.167.1+4.0
39 Japan116555%74.773.3+1.5
40 Bosnia & Herzegovina116555%77.381.8-4.5
41 Belgium105550%72.269.2+3.0
42 Ukraine105550%81.578.5+3.0
43 Cape Verde84450%71.168.8+2.4
44 Portugal168850%70.971.6-0.7
45 Switzerland42250%62.263.2-1.0
46 Kazakhstan115645%66.070.4-4.4
47 Hungary115645%71.379.7-8.5
48 D.R. Congo94544%55.060.4-5.4
49 Saudi Arabia104640%68.473.0-4.6
50 Mali52340%42.047.2-5.2
51 Colombia83538%79.589.8-10.2
52 Turkey93633%77.376.6+0.8
53 Poland62433%74.077.0-3.0
54 Kosovo62433%75.885.2-9.3
55 Slovakia1651131%68.976.7-7.8
56 Israel103730%76.277.2-1.0
57 Bahamas103730%79.590.0-10.5
58 Czech Republic113827%73.580.0-6.5
59 Cameroon92722%61.667.8-6.2
60 Uganda92722%65.974.9-9.0
61 Guinea92722%63.973.3-9.4
62 Estonia102820%71.982.8-10.9
63 North Macedonia102820%64.375.8-11.5
64 Luxembourg102820%76.388.1-11.8
65 Panama102820%66.778.5-11.8
66 Bahrain112918%62.682.6-20.0
67 Bulgaria61517%74.379.2-4.8
68 Croatia61517%77.083.2-6.2
69 Rwanda61517%56.765.2-8.5
70 Chile61517%66.075.7-9.7
71 Syria61517%69.379.3-10.0
72 Central African Republic61517%61.275.2-14.0
73 Albania61517%65.282.2-17.0
74 Cyprus61517%59.080.2-21.2
75 Great Britain81712%69.480.4-11.0
76 Cuba4040%65.072.8-7.8
77 Netherlands100100%72.582.4-9.9
78 Denmark4040%69.584.5-15.0
79 Romania4040%69.889.5-19.8
80 Chinese Taipei6060%61.090.7-29.7
81 India8080%61.090.8-29.8
82 United States Virgin Islands6060%64.796.2-31.5
83 Indonesia6060%58.590.2-31.7
84 Paraguay6060%55.086.8-31.8
85 Kenya6060%42.574.8-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 85 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy2320152785
Ukraine2122141875
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