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Italy W vs Lithuania W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Jun 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 65-51
18-14 16-9 12-19 19-9
Position#6
Record6-2
FormLWLWW
Points / game69.2
Allowed / game60.5
Italy W 🏆
vs
Position#17
Record6-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game67.0
EuropeEuropean Championship WomenRound 3· PalaDozza
Women2024
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lithuania W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Italy WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Belgium W
#3
L
64-72
64
72
-8
no box
A18/06
European Championship Women
Montenegro W
#16
L
49-63
49
63
-14
no box
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
76-67
76
67
+9
no box
H09/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
70-53
70
53
+17
no box
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
68-47
68
47
+21
59avg 62
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
45-56
45
56
-11
28avg 62
A10/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
79-60
79
60
+19
75avg 62
H06/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
L
69-74
69
74
-5
62avg 62
A09/02
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
W
70-61
70
61
+9
66avg 62
A18/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
77-66
77
66
+11
69avg 62
H19/06
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-26
17-17
15-11
10-18
8-22
14-13
9-13
18-15
24-10
15-21
14-17
23-19
21-8
15-19
12-12
22-14
25-17
8-9
17-6
18-15
20-23
8-10
7-9
10-14
23-21
15-17
22-6
19-16
27-23
12-18
15-13
15-20
19-18
20-12
17-13
14-18
22-17
23-5
16-26
16-18
128.6Avg total
66.7Scored
61.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)69.260.5129.8+8.875%
Season at home (4)75.060.0135.0+15.0100%
Season away (4)63.561.0124.5+2.550%
Last 10 (10)66.761.9128.6+4.860%
Last 5 (5)68.063.4131.4+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)71.773.0144.7-1.333%
vs Similar ◀ (1)77.066.0143.0+11.0100%
vs Weaker (24)74.060.2134.1+13.875%
This opponent (Lithuania W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lithuania WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
France W
#5
L
75-83
75
83
-8
no box
H09/02
European Championship Women
Ukraine W
#11
L
65-71
65
71
-6
no box
A12/02
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
99-62
99
62
+37
no box
H09/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#15
W
75-73 OT
75
73
+2
no box
A12/11
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
70-81
70
81
-11
73avg 74
A07/11
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
108-47
108
47
+61
123avg 74
A10/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#15
W
72-69
72
69
+3
67avg 74
H06/02
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
69-70
69
70
-1
66avg 74
H09/02
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
77-71
77
71
+6
75avg 74
A18/06
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
W
74-63
74
63
+11
72avg 74
H19/06
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-20
23-20
11-22
24-21
12-21
30-19
8-23
15-8
22-18
24-19
30-11
23-14
15-28
17-14
20-10
14-14
15-19
20-22
14-25
21-15
23-16
30-13
24-13
31-5
18-22
22-13
16-15
16-19
13-15
25-20
17-13
14-22
27-19
15-15
16-21
19-16
16-14
14-16
24-19
20-14
147.4Avg total
78.4Scored
69.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)80.567.0147.5+13.575%
Season at home (4)78.566.0144.5+12.575%
Season away (4)82.568.0150.5+14.575%
Last 10 (10)78.469.0147.4+9.460%
Last 5 (5)80.064.0144.0+16.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)70.077.1147.1-7.140%
vs Similar ◀ (4)63.068.5131.5-5.525%
vs Weaker (5)89.853.4143.2+36.4100%
This opponent (Italy W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +4.9+4.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +4.9+4.9
Italy WLithuania W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Italy WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belgium W
#3
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A18/06
European Championship Women
Montenegro W
#16
L
22-35
22
35
-13
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H09/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A10/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H06/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A09/02
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A18/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H19/06
European Championship Women
68.4Avg total
35.8Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (28)38.430.869.2+7.571%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.128.166.3+10.079%-
Last 30 away (14)38.633.572.1+5.164%-
Last 10 (10)35.832.668.4+3.250%-
Last 5 (5)37.832.870.6+5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)39.036.775.7+2.367%-
vs Similar ◀ (1)45.022.067.0+23.0100%-
vs Weaker (24)38.030.568.5+7.571%-
This opponent (Lithuania W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lithuania WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
France W
#5
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H09/02
European Championship Women
Ukraine W
#11
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A12/02
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H09/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#15
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A12/11
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A07/11
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
53-29
53
29
+24
A10/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#15
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H06/02
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H09/02
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A18/06
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
D
30-30
30
30
+0
H19/06
European Championship Women
76.1Avg total
39.8Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (19)36.735.872.5+0.847%-
Last 30 at home (10)36.733.470.1+3.350%-
Last 30 away (9)36.738.675.2-1.944%-
Last 10 (10)39.836.376.1+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)40.632.673.2+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)34.539.874.3-5.330%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)34.838.273.0-3.525%-
vs Weaker (5)42.626.068.6+16.6100%-
This opponent (Italy W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italy Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy W: 68.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.9 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.417.9
44.3%
45.4%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.07.9
34.2%
30.0%23.6
🏀 Free throws13.18.9
67.6%
72.4%8.9
They take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lithuania Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania W: 79.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.6 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.922.0
51.3%
45.4%44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.05.9
32.6%
30.0%17.6
🏀 Free throws24.417.9
73.3%
72.4%17.9
They take 60.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 30% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/8 games with a box score before 21 Jun 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy W
WWLWLWWWLL
Lithuania W
WWLWWLWWLL
#6
League position
#17
+12.3
Net rating
+16.9
98.8
Offensive rating
101.4
86.5
Defensive rating
84.5
46.8%
Effective FG%
50.6%
44.9%
Opp. effective FG%
40.6%
15.3%
Turnover %
22.1%
27.3%
Off. rebound %
33.6%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.40
34.2%
3-point %
32.6%
69.4%
Assist %
77.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence98.8 · 101.4Defence86.5 · 84.5Shooting46.8% · 50.6%3-point %34.2% · 32.6%Ball care15.3% · 22.1%Off. rebounds27.3% · 33.6%Free throws0.21 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Italy W   ■ Lithuania W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy W wins
0
Lithuania W wins
No previous meetings.
Italy Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/06/25HSlovenia W77-66
18/06/25ASerbia W70-61
09/02/25ACzech Republic W69-74
06/02/25HGermany W79-60
10/11/24AGreece W45-56
07/11/24HCzech Republic W68-47
12/11/23AGermany W70-53
09/11/23HGreece W76-67
19/06/23AMontenegro W49-63
18/06/23ABelgium W64-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/06/25HSerbia W74-63
18/06/25ASlovenia W77-71
09/02/25HBelgium W69-70
06/02/25HPoland W72-69
10/11/24AAzerbaijan W108-47
07/11/24ABelgium W70-81
12/11/23APoland W75-73 OT
09/11/23HAzerbaijan W99-62
12/02/23AUkraine W65-71
09/02/23HFrance W75-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW75%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game69.275.063.5
Allowed / game60.560.061.0
Point differential+8.8+15.0+2.5
Avg total129.8135.0124.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%75%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lithuania W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW75%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %75%75%75%
Points / game80.578.582.5
Allowed / game67.066.068.0
Point differential+13.5+12.5+14.5
Avg total147.5144.5150.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %12%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 France W990100%94.047.2+46.8
2 Spain W880100%76.257.4+18.9
3 Turkey W98189%82.061.8+20.2
4 Belgium W87188%86.855.0+31.8
5 Sweden W87188%75.565.1+10.4
6 Lithuania W86275%80.567.0+13.5
7 Italy W86275%69.260.5+8.8
8 Slovenia W96367%77.668.3+9.2
9 Croatia W64267%76.067.8+8.2
10 Luxembourg W64267%63.257.2+6.0
11 Slovakia W64267%71.565.7+5.8
12 Latvia W64267%75.076.5-1.5
13 Germany W85362%70.969.0+1.9
14 Portugal W85362%59.660.0-0.4
15 Serbia W95456%74.859.4+15.3
16 Poland W63350%79.862.3+17.5
17 Great Britain W84450%73.061.8+11.2
18 Hungary W63350%73.567.7+5.8
19 Czech Republic W84450%67.266.6+0.6
20 Montenegro W84450%67.567.2+0.2
21 Switzerland W94544%62.269.1-6.9
22 Greece W93633%68.872.7-3.9
23 Bulgaria W62433%76.381.5-5.2
24 Ukraine W62433%64.270.0-5.8
25 Netherlands W62433%63.770.3-6.7
26 Israel W62433%71.880.2-8.3
27 Finland W62433%62.577.3-14.8
28 Denmark W61517%66.773.8-7.2
29 Iceland W61517%68.877.7-8.8
30 Romania W61517%66.588.3-21.8
31 Estonia W61517%51.577.8-26.3
32 Austria W6060%53.074.0-21.0
33 Bosnia & Herzegovina W6060%54.083.2-29.2
34 North Macedonia W6060%56.086.8-30.8
35 Ireland W6060%55.597.2-41.7
36 Azerbaijan W6060%41.0105.5-64.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 36 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy W1816121965
Lithuania W14919951
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