Kansas faces Middle Tennessee State in the NCAA on 6 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Kansas the clear favourite, giving it a 94% chance of victory, a reflection of their 1-0 record, 95.0 points per game and 65.0 allowed per game, the best offensive and defensive figures in the competition. Kansas has played one game this season, winning 95-65 at home, and has a 1-0 home record with the same averages; their last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 95-65 win over Fordham, a 65-67 loss to St. John's (N.Y.) and a 68-60 win over California Baptist. Middle Tennessee State also has a 1-0 record, 117.0 points per game and 73.0 allowed per game, and a 4-1 record in their last five games, highlighted by a 117-73 win over Fisk, a 69-80 loss to Louisiana Tech and a 75-63 win over Missouri State. The two teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 86-68 score for Kansas, a total of 154.3 points, and a 57% probability that the over on the 151.5 line will hit, with a 1% chance of overtime. Kansas's dominant numbers suggest they will control the game, and the projected 86-68 margin indicates a decisive win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kansas winWon
94.4%fair 1.06
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Middle Tenn. St. winLost
5.6%fair 17.79
Best odds50.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Kansas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
63.8%
@ 1.29-8.1pp
Under 148.5
36.2%
@ 3.30+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.30
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
51.7%
@ 1.83-0.9pp
Under 153.5
48.3%
@ 2.25+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Be
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
39.5%
@ 2.05-5.6pp
Under 158.5
60.5%
@ 1.69+5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Under
Marathon Be
1.69
Bet365
1.68
📊 3. Team Totals
Kansas total 89Push
Over 89
39.2%
Under 89
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kansas total 93 · main lineActual: Kansas under 93
Over 93
24.4%
@ 1.87-25.3pp
Under 93
75.6%
@ 1.85+25.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Kansas total 97Actual: Kansas under 97
Over 97
13.4%
Under 97
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middle Tenn. St. total 58Actual: Middle Tenn. St. under 58
Over 58
84.5%
Under 58
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middle Tenn. St. total 62 · main lineActual: Middle Tenn. St. under 62
Over 62
72.6%
@ 1.85+22.3pp
Under 62
27.4%
@ 1.87-22.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Middle Tenn. St. total 66Actual: Middle Tenn. St. under 66
Over 66
57.3%
Under 66
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Kansas -34Actual: Kansas -34
KANS -34
no forecast
@ 2.72
MIDD +34
no forecast
@ 1.40
Best 5 market prices
KANS
Bet365
2.72
MIDD
Bet365
1.40
Spread Kansas -31 · main lineActual: Kansas -31
KANS -31
no forecast
@ 2.15
MIDD +31
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
KANS
Bet365
2.15
Marathon Be
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
MIDD
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.77
Bet365
1.62
Spread Kansas -28Actual: Kansas -28
KANS -28
no forecast
@ 1.77
MIDD +28
no forecast
@ 2.06
Best 5 market prices
KANS
Marathon Be
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.74
MIDD
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathon Be
1.95
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.95
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
KansasMiddle Tenn. St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Kansas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Middle Tenn. St. +25
72.4%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+33.6pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. +24.5
70.3%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+32.8pp
Lost
Kansas under 93.5
76.4%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.80
+26.1pp
Won
Kansas under 94.5
79.4%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Won
Kansas under 92.5
73.2%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.00
BetVictor
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
+25.9pp
Won
Kansas under 93
75.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 61
75.9%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 60.5
76.7%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Kansas under 92
72.2%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 62
72.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
Kansas under 96.5
84.6%
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Kansas under 98.5
88.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Kansas under 95.5
82.1%
1.45
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 61.5
73.5%
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
+17.4pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 62.5
70.1%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.79
-
+17.2pp
Lost
Kansas under 99.5
90.7%
1.25
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Kansas under 102.5
94.7%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 59.5
79.7%
1.44
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Lost
Kansas under 97.5
86.9%
1.29
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 58.5
82.4%
1.37
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
Kansas under 100.5
92.2%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Kansas under 101.5
93.6%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 55.5
89.1%
1.19
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 56.5
87.1%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Lost
Kansas under 103.5
95.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 57.5
84.9%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 52.5
93.7%
1.09
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 54.5
90.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 53.5
92.3%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 50.5
95.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. over 51.5
94.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Under 163
71.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 163.5
71.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 164
73.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 164.5
73.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 181.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
77.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Over 127.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Under 176.5
91.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
93.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Over 132.5
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 171.5
85.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 179.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Over 145
72.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Over 145.5
70.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Over 142.5
76.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Lost
Under 177.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 174.5
89.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Over 134.5
89.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Lost
Over 137.5
85.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
Over 131.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 172.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 139.5
81.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Lost
Over 144.5
72.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
Under 169.5
82.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Over 136.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Lost
Kansas over 75.5
86.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
79.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Kansas over 76.5
84.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
78.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Lost
Kansas over 77.5
81.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Kansas over 78.5
78.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. under 76.5
80.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Kansas over 79.5
75.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
Kansas -9.5
78.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Kansas over 80.5
72.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. under 74.5
74.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
Kansas -10.5
76.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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