Kentucky faces Kansas on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Kentucky the model favourite and the game expected to be a close contest. Kentucky has gone 2-0 this season, scoring 87.0 points per game and allowing 68.5, while Kansas is also undefeated at 2-0, averaging 92.0 points and conceding 55.0, with Kansas positioned 19th and Kentucky 90th in the league. Kentucky's home record is 2-0, and its last five games include three wins and two losses, highlighted by a 89-80 victory over James Madison at home on 6 November and a 85-57 win over Manhattan on 3 November, with a recent loss to Iowa State away on 22 March. Kansas's last five games also show three wins and two losses, featuring a 89-45 win over Middle Tenn. St. at home on 6 November and a 95-65 win over Fordham on 2 November, with a 65-67 loss to St. John's (N.Y.) at home on 22 March. Historically, Kansas leads the series 3-1, most recently beating Kentucky 89-84 on 14 November 2023. Pythia assigns Kentucky a 67% chance of victory against Kansas's 33%, projecting a 78-73 score for a total of 150.5 points; the home line is 4.5 with a 79% probability of covering, while the over on 155.5 carries a 37% chance, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. Kentucky's recent home dominance and Kansas's higher scoring average suggest a tight, high-scoring encounter that could swing on a single play.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kentucky winLost
67.3%fair 1.49
Best odds2.75
Implied36.3%
Edge+31.0pp
Kansas winWon
32.7%fair 3.05
Best odds1.51
Implied63.7%
Edge-31.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
43.0%
@ 1.67-14.0pp
Under 153
57.0%
@ 2.15+14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.15
Over/Under 158 · main linePush
Over 158
31.4%
@ 2.12-19.1pp
Under 158
68.6%
@ 1.92+19.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.12
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
Bet365
1.64
Over/Under 163Actual: Under 163
Over 163
21.6%
@ 3.00-9.4pp
Under 163
78.4%
@ 1.35+9.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.35
📊 3. Team Totals
Kentucky total 71Actual: Kentucky under 71
Over 71
75.4%
Under 71
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kentucky total 75 · main lineActual: Kentucky under 75
Over 75
61.1%
@ 1.85+11.1pp
Under 75
38.9%
@ 1.85-11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Kentucky total 79Actual: Kentucky under 79
Over 79
44.9%
Under 79
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kansas total 76Actual: Kansas over 76
Over 76
36.6%
Under 76
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kansas total 80 · main lineActual: Kansas over 80
Over 80
23.1%
@ 1.85-27.2pp
Under 80
76.9%
@ 1.87+27.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Kansas total 83.5Actual: Kansas over 83.5
Over 83.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 83.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Kentucky +1.5Actual: Kansas -1.5
KENT +1.5
69.7%
@ 2.30+29.2pp
KANS -1.5
30.3%
@ 1.57-29.2pp
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Bet365
2.30
KANS
Bet365
1.57
Spread Kentucky +4.5 · main lineActual: Kansas -4.5
KENT +4.5
78.7%
@ 1.96+29.6pp
KANS -4.5
21.3%
@ 1.89-29.6pp
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.93
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.83
KANS
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Kentucky +7.5Actual: Kansas -7.5
KENT +7.5
85.7%
@ 1.67+27.9pp
KANS -7.5
14.3%
@ 2.35-27.9pp
Best 5 market prices
KENT
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.55
KANS
Bet365
2.35
1xBet
2.07
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
KentuckyKansas
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Kentucky) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Kentucky +2
72.3%
2.33
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+32.9pp
Lost
Kentucky +3
75.3%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+32.9pp
Lost
Kentucky +2.5
73.3%
2.18
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
2.07
-
-
+32.8pp
Lost
Kentucky +4
78.1%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+31.6pp
Lost
Kentucky +3.5
75.9%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.16
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.96
-
-
+31.6pp
Lost
Kansas under 82.5
82.8%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.82
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Lost
Kansas under 81.5
80.3%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Kansas under 80.5
77.6%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.98
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
+30.0pp
Lost
Kansas under 81
79.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Kentucky +4.5
78.7%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.93
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.89
1xBet
1.83
+29.6pp
Lost
Kentucky +5
80.8%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
+29.2pp
Lost
Kentucky +7.5
85.7%
1.61
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Kansas under 79.5
74.7%
1.90
Pinnacle
2.02
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+27.8pp
Lost
Kentucky +5.5
81.3%
1.76
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
+27.5pp
Lost
Kentucky +6
83.2%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Lost
Kansas under 80
76.9%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Lost
Kansas under 78.5
71.5%
2.29
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.09
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Kentucky +7
85.4%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Kentucky +6.5
83.6%
1.66
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+25.9pp
Lost
Kentucky +8
87.3%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+25.6pp
Lost
Kentucky +8.5
87.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Lost
Kentucky +9
89.0%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Kentucky +9.5
89.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Lost
Kentucky +10
90.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Kentucky +10.5
90.6%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
Kentucky +11
91.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Kentucky +11.5
91.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Kentucky +12
93.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Lost
Kentucky +12.5
93.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Lost
Under 159
70.7%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.57
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Under 159.5
71.3%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Kentucky +14.5
94.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
Under 167.5
84.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 160
72.7%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Kentucky +19.5
97.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Under 160.5
73.3%
1.59
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Under 162
76.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Under 161
74.7%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
75.2%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Under 162.5
77.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 163
78.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 172.5
90.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 163.5
78.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Kentucky +24.5
99.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Kentucky over 69.5
79.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
Under 165.5
82.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Under 177.5
94.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.1%
1.05
WilliamHill
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 170.5
88.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Kentucky over 70.5
76.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Lost
Under 180.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 175.5
93.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Kentucky under 94.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Kentucky under 92.5
92.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Kentucky under 90.5
89.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Kansas +20.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Kentucky under 88.5
85.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Kentucky under 85.5
77.8%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Over 130.5
88.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Kentucky under 86.5
80.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Kentucky under 84.5
74.8%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Over 132.5
86.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Kansas over 61.5
86.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Over 135.5
81.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Kansas +15.5
82.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Kansas over 62.5
83.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Kansas over 63.5
81.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Over 137.5
78.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
Kansas over 64.5
78.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Over 140.5
72.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
Kansas over 65.5
75.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Kansas over 66.5
72.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-16.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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