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Kretinga vs Mazeikiai Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 12:10
Projected 88-85
Projected total 172.9
Scheduled
Position#16
Record2-11
FormLWLLL
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game90.7
Vs
62%
38%
■ KRET 62%■ MAZ 38%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Position#15
Record3-11
FormWLLWL
Points / game78.9
Allowed / game88.9
LithuaniaNKLRound 16· Kretinga sports and wellness center
Other2026-27
Meetings · Kretinga v Mazeikiai
21 Nov 2026
KRET v MAZ
upcoming
30 Oct 2025
KRET81
MAZ84
07 Jan 2023
KRET63
MAZ77
27 Jan 2022
KRET52
MAZ81
28 Oct 2021
KRET77
MAZ73
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Kretinga host Mazeikiai in the NKL. Pythia makes Kretinga the favourite at 62% and projects 88-85, about 173 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Kretinga are 2-11 this season (81.5 scored, 90.7 allowed a game), form LWLLL; Mazeikiai are 3-11 this season (78.9 scored, 88.9 allowed a game), form WLLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kretinga win
61.9%fair 1.62
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Mazeikiai win
38.1%fair 2.62
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KretingaLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKretinga
Date
Competition
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
L
95-99
95
99
-4
89avg 76
H10/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
83-88
83
88
-5
80avg 76
H15/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
84-72
84
72
+12
82avg 76
A17/10
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#8
L
70-90
70
90
-20
56avg 76
A22/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
L
85-101
85
101
-16
74avg 76
H24/10
NKL
Jurbarkas
#2
L
79-86
79
86
-7
71avg 76
H29/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
75-72
75
72
+3
73avg 76
A31/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
86-100
86
100
-14
no box
H05/11
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
L
79-91
79
91
-12
no box
A07/11
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
98-107
98
107
-9
no box
A12/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-19
20-22
20-27
30-31
18-31
24-21
23-15
18-21
23-16
24-23
17-10
20-23
15-25
21-23
13-25
21-17
16-25
22-24
23-23
24-29
23-21
18-19
25-27
13-19
18-22
14-19
18-14
25-17
19-27
23-21
18-18
26-34
21-22
21-25
20-19
17-25
17-28
24-28
28-24
29-27
174.0Avg total
83.4Scored
90.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)81.590.7172.2-9.215%
Season at home (6)84.094.2178.2-10.20%
Season away (7)79.487.7167.1-8.329%
Last 10 (10)83.490.6174.0-7.220%
Last 5 (5)83.491.2174.6-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)79.991.9171.8-12.018%
vs Similar ◀ (10)83.981.7165.6+2.260%
vs Weaker (3)97.390.7188.0+6.7100%
This opponent (Mazeikiai) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MazeikiaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMazeikiai
Date
Competition
Kedainiai BC
#14
L
85-92
85
92
-7
74avg 73
A15/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
77-90
77
90
-13
67avg 73
H17/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
L
72-80
72
80
-8
57avg 73
H22/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
L
70-74
70
74
-4
55avg 73
A24/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
85-109
85
109
-24
72avg 73
H29/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
97-88
97
88
+9
89avg 73
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
77-101
77
101
-24
no box
H05/11
NKL
Silute
#7
L
79-98
79
98
-19
no box
A07/11
NKL
Vilkaviskis
#11
W
103-96 OT
103
96
+7
no box
H12/11
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#8
L
81-85
81
85
-4
no box
A14/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-21
21-25
25-28
23-18
24-27
24-25
16-23
13-15
21-22
16-17
10-24
25-17
19-14
17-17
17-18
17-25
13-28
22-26
26-35
24-20
26-24
20-15
32-24
19-25
21-26
21-26
20-17
15-32
17-22
18-27
22-24
22-25
9-20
24-22
29-23
23-20
19-29
25-19
16-16
21-21
173.9Avg total
82.6Scored
91.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)78.988.9167.9-10.021%
Season at home (7)78.791.3170.0-12.629%
Season away (7)79.186.6165.7-7.414%
Last 10 (10)82.691.3173.9-8.720%
Last 5 (5)87.493.6181.0-6.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)77.192.5169.6-15.59%
vs Similar ◀ (16)83.285.8168.9-2.644%
vs Weaker (3)90.373.7164.0+16.7100%
This opponent (Kretinga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 163.5
Over 163.5
70.7%
Under 163.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 168.5
Over 168.5
59.5%
Under 168.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173.5
Over 173.5
47.5%
Under 173.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Kretinga total 81.5
Over 81.5
73.9%
Under 81.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kretinga total 85.5
Over 85.5
59.9%
Under 85.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kretinga total 89.5
Over 89.5
44.5%
Under 89.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mazeikiai total 79
Over 79
71.3%
Under 79
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mazeikiai total 83
Over 83
56.3%
Under 83
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mazeikiai total 87
Over 87
40.5%
Under 87
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Kretinga -3
KRET -3
53.1%
MAZ +3
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
KRET
No market prices yet.
MAZ
No market prices yet.
Spread Kretinga 0
KRET 0
61.9%
MAZ 0
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
KRET
No market prices yet.
MAZ
No market prices yet.
Spread Kretinga +3
KRET +3
70.4%
MAZ -3
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
KRET
No market prices yet.
MAZ
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: -4.8-4.8Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -1.6-1.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: -4.8-4.8Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -1.6-1.6
KretingaMazeikiai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
KretingaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H10/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
42-52
42
52
-10
H15/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A17/10
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#8
L
36-48
36
48
-12
A22/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H24/10
NKL
Jurbarkas
#2
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H29/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#9
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A31/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H05/11
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A07/11
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
41-56
41
56
-15
A12/11
NKL
86.7Avg total
40.6Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.942.982.8-3.033%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.342.683.9-1.350%-
Last 30 away (16)38.743.281.9-4.519%-
Last 10 (10)40.646.186.7-5.530%-
Last 5 (5)39.646.486.0-6.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.945.383.2-7.412%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)40.139.079.1+1.150%-
vs Weaker (3)50.742.393.0+8.3100%-
This opponent (Mazeikiai) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MazeikiaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kedainiai BC
#14
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A15/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
48-52
48
52
-4
H17/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H22/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A24/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
35-54
35
54
-19
H29/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
42-52
42
52
-10
H05/11
NKL
Silute
#7
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A07/11
NKL
Vilkaviskis
#11
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H12/11
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#8
L
44-48
44
48
-4
A14/11
NKL
84.5Avg total
39.3Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.144.184.3-4.033%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.743.985.6-2.136%-
Last 30 away (16)38.844.483.1-5.631%-
Last 10 (10)39.345.284.5-5.920%-
Last 5 (5)40.046.086.0-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)36.448.584.8-12.10%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)41.942.784.6-0.850%-
vs Weaker (3)44.336.080.3+8.367%-
This opponent (Kretinga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Kretingatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kretinga: 78.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.619.3
54.2%
54.5%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.38.5
31.1%
31.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws23.014.8
64.3%
67.1%14.8
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Mazeikiaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mazeikiai: 76.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.019.4
49.7%
54.5%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.18.6
34.3%
31.3%25.8
🏀 Free throws18.711.9
63.6%
67.1%11.9
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Kretinga
LLLWLLLWLL
Mazeikiai
LWLLWLLLLL
#16
League position
#15
-9.7
Net rating
-11.3
89.2
Offensive rating
87.9
98.9
Defensive rating
99.2
51.0%
Effective FG%
50.4%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
56.2%
16.1%
Turnover %
16.7%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.29
31.1%
3-point %
34.3%
60.1%
Assist %
52.9%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence89.2 · 87.9Defence98.9 · 99.2Shooting51.0% · 50.4%3-point %31.1% · 34.3%Ball care16.1% · 16.7%Free throws0.37 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)20% · 20%
■ Kretinga   ■ Mazeikiai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Kretinga wins
6
Mazeikiai wins
DateGameScore
03/01/26Mazeikiai v Kretinga94-95
30/10/25Kretinga v Mazeikiai81-84
07/01/23Kretinga v Mazeikiai63-77
05/11/22Mazeikiai v Kretinga86-82
12/03/22Mazeikiai v Kretinga101-47
27/01/22Kretinga v Mazeikiai52-81
25/11/21Mazeikiai v Kretinga73-55
28/10/21Kretinga v Mazeikiai77-73
Kretingalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AVytis VDU98-107
07/11/26ARytas 279-91
05/11/26HBC Olimpas Palanga86-100
31/10/26AOmega-Tauras75-72
29/10/26HJurbarkas79-86
24/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas 285-101
22/10/26AAlytaus Patriotai70-90
17/10/26AKauno Atletas84-72
15/10/26HSuduva-Mantinga83-88
10/10/26HUkmerges Stekas95-99
Mazeikiailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AAlytaus Patriotai81-85
12/11/26HVilkaviskis103-96 OT
07/11/26ASilute79-98
05/11/26HVytis VDU77-101
31/10/26AKauno Atletas97-88
29/10/26HSuduva-Mantinga85-109
24/10/26AUkmerges Stekas70-74
22/10/26HPlunges Olimpas72-80
17/10/26HNeptunas 277-90
15/10/26AKedainiai BC85-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kretinga
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL15%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayWLWLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %15%0%29%
Points / game81.584.079.4
Allowed / game90.794.287.7
Point differential-9.2-10.2-8.3
Avg total172.2178.2167.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%0%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mazeikiai
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL21%
HomeLLLLW29%
AwayLLWLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %21%29%14%
Points / game78.978.779.1
Allowed / game88.991.386.6
Point differential-10.0-12.6-7.4
Avg total167.9170.0165.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)100% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %7%14%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai1312192%90.573.6+16.9
2 Jurbarkas1311285%88.678.3+10.3
3 BC Olimpas Palanga1411379%96.384.6+11.6
4 Suduva-Mantinga1310377%91.577.8+13.8
5 Vytis VDU129375%96.189.1+7.0
6 Neptunas 21410471%78.474.1+4.2
7 Silute128467%84.382.2+2.2
8 Alytaus Patriotai148657%83.884.9-1.1
9 Omega-Tauras147750%89.485.9+3.4
10 Plunges Olimpas147750%83.181.1+2.1
11 Vilkaviskis146843%83.186.1-3.0
12 Zalgiris Kaunas 2125742%94.296.8-2.7
13 Ukmerges Stekas145936%78.988.1-9.2
14 Kedainiai BC1441029%76.885.0-8.2
15 Mazeikiai1431121%78.988.9-10.0
16 Kretinga1321115%81.590.7-9.2
17 Kauno Atletas1421214%79.194.4-15.3
18 Rytas 2141137%77.186.9-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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