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Liberty vs Jacksonville State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 78-69
27-27 51-42
Position#26
Record10-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game68.1
Liberty 🏆
USA
vs
Position#228
Record7-6
FormLLWWW
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game63.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Liberty v Jacksonville State
04 Jan 2026
LIBE78
JACK69
15 Mar 2025
LIBE79
JACK67
27 Feb 2025
LIBE59
JACK55
10 Jan 2024
LIBE51
JACK61
05 Jan 2023
LIBE75
JACK41
29 Jan 2022
LIBE67
JACK77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Liberty winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Jacksonville State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LibertyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Carolina University
#612
W
98-46
98
46
+52
H18/11
NCAA
Vermont
#85
W
79-73
79
73
+6
A24/11
NCAA
Towson
#157
L
69-72
69
72
-3
H25/11
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
64-74
64
74
-10
A26/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
92-50
92
50
+42
H06/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
45-85
45
85
-40
A11/12
NCAA
Midway
#519
W
95-57
95
57
+38
H16/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
64-61
64
61
+3
A20/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
97-94 OT
97
94
+3
A28/12
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
81-73
81
73
+8
H03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
49-19
49-27
40-32
39-41
37-36
32-36
33-43
31-31
55-14
37-36
19-45
26-40
50-27
45-30
29-33
35-28
41-33
41-49
46-33
35-40
146.9Avg total
78.4Scored
68.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)81.568.1149.6+13.577%
Season at home (8)88.962.2151.1+26.688%
Season away (5)69.877.4147.2-7.660%
Last 10 (10)78.468.5146.9+9.970%
Last 5 (5)76.474.0150.4+2.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (6)70.272.3142.5-2.267%
vs Weaker (24)78.065.0143.1+13.083%
This opponent (Jacksonville State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Jacksonville StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
L
65-71
65
71
-6
H20/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
63-74
63
74
-11
A25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
L
43-56
43
56
-13
H26/11
NCAA
North Alabama
#341
L
66-73
66
73
-7
H02/12
NCAA
Aub.-Montgomery
#448
W
66-39
66
39
+27
H07/12
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
L
73-77
73
77
-4
A13/12
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
L
59-62
59
62
-3
H18/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
81-75
81
75
+6
A20/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
78-67
78
67
+11
H30/12
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
67-64
67
64
+3
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
31-25
34-46
32-38
31-36
21-35
22-21
34-26
32-47
32-23
34-16
31-37
42-40
29-38
30-24
31-34
50-41
38-22
40-45
36-31
31-33
131.9Avg total
66.1Scored
65.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)74.363.6137.9+10.754%
Season at home (9)75.859.7135.4+16.156%
Season away (4)71.072.5143.5-1.550%
Last 10 (10)66.165.8131.9+0.340%
Last 5 (5)71.669.0140.6+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)63.666.0129.6-2.440%
vs Similar ◀ (12)68.266.9135.1+1.258%
vs Weaker (11)78.466.3144.6+12.164%
This opponent (Liberty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.4+8.41st half: +0.6+0.62nd half2nd half: +1.2+1.22nd half: -0.3-0.3
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.4+8.41st half: +0.6+0.62nd half2nd half: +1.2+1.22nd half: -0.3-0.3
LibertyJacksonville State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LibertyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Carolina University
#612
W
49-19
49
19
+30
H18/11
NCAA
Vermont
#85
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/11
NCAA
Towson
#157
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H25/11
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A26/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
55-14
55
14
+41
H06/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
19-45
19
45
-26
A11/12
NCAA
Midway
#519
W
50-27
50
27
+23
H16/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A20/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A28/12
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H03/01
NCAA
71.4Avg total
39.9Scored
31.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.730.568.3+7.277%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.228.068.2+12.294%-
Last 30 away (13)34.533.868.3+0.654%-
Last 10 (10)39.931.571.4+8.470%-
Last 5 (5)37.034.271.2+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (6)35.836.071.8-0.250%-
vs Weaker (24)38.229.267.4+9.083%-
This opponent (Jacksonville State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Jacksonville StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Alabama
#120
W
31-25
31
25
+6
H20/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
L
21-35
21
35
-14
H26/11
NCAA
North Alabama
#341
W
34-26
34
26
+8
H02/12
NCAA
Aub.-Montgomery
#448
W
32-23
32
23
+9
H07/12
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A13/12
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H18/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A20/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
38-22
38
22
+16
H30/12
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A03/01
NCAA
62.4Avg total
31.5Scored
30.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.331.565.8+2.850%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.730.366.0+5.367%-
Last 30 away (12)32.233.265.5-1.025%-
Last 10 (10)31.530.962.4+0.650%-
Last 5 (5)33.032.465.4+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)26.635.061.6-8.40%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)35.031.666.6+3.450%-
vs Weaker (11)36.330.566.7+5.864%-
This opponent (Liberty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Liberty wins
4
Jacksonville State wins
Libertylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26HKennesaw State81-73
28/12/25AFlorida International97-94 OT
20/12/25ADayton64-61
16/12/25HMidway95-57
11/12/25ANC State45-85
06/12/25HCoppin State92-50
26/11/25ABradley64-74
25/11/25HTowson69-72
24/11/25AVermont79-73
18/11/25HCarolina University98-46
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26ADelaware67-64
30/12/25HWestern Kentucky78-67
20/12/25AEast Tennessee St81-75
18/12/25HEastern Kentucky59-62
13/12/25AGeorgia State73-77
07/12/25HAub.-Montgomery66-39
02/12/25HNorth Alabama66-73
26/11/25HNorth Dakota St43-56
25/11/25AArkansas State63-74
20/11/25HSouth Alabama65-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Liberty
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW77%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWLLWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %77%88%60%
Points / game81.588.969.8
Allowed / game68.162.277.4
Point differential+13.5+26.6-7.6
Avg total149.6151.1147.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%75%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %8%0%20%
Jacksonville State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW54%
HomeLLWLW56%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1394
Win %54%56%50%
Points / game74.375.871.0
Allowed / game63.659.772.5
Point differential+10.7+16.1-1.5
Avg total137.9135.4143.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%44%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty1310377%81.568.1+13.5
2 New Mexico State129375%77.467.3+10.1
3 Kennesaw State138562%91.876.5+15.3
4 Louisiana Tech138562%70.258.5+11.6
5 Sam Houston St.138562%88.376.8+11.5
6 Florida International138562%88.279.2+8.9
7 Middle Tenn. St.138562%77.469.6+7.8
8 Western Kentucky138562%84.578.0+6.5
9 Missouri State138562%73.868.5+5.2
10 Jacksonville State137654%74.363.6+10.7
11 UTEP134931%70.372.1-1.8
12 Delaware134931%66.172.2-6.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Liberty275178
Jacksonville State274269
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