PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Longwood hosts VMI on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Longwood as the clear favourite, reflected in a 96% win probability versus 4% for VMI, a result driven by Longwood's 3-1 season record, 94.2 points scored per game and 67.2 allowed, and a flawless 3-0 home record with 101.3 points for and 62.3 against. VMI, meanwhile, sits 2-2 overall, 79.5 points for and 74.8 against, and has gone 0-2 on the road, scoring 69.0 and conceding 82.5. Longwood's recent form shows a 3-2 run over five games, highlighted by a 101-45 win over St. Mary's (MD) and an 80-75 victory over N. Carolina Central, while VMI's last five include a 65-51 home win over N. Carolina Central but losses to UTSA and SMU on the road. In their three prior meetings, Longwood has won twice, most recently 68-49 on 17 December 2023. Pythia projects a 89-69 score for the contest, totaling 157.9 points, and gives Longwood a 96% chance to cover the home line, with a 1% probability of overtime. The game will be decided by Longwood's offensive firepower and VMI's struggles away.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 94.2 | 67.2 | 161.5 | +27.0 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 101.3 | 62.3 | 163.7 | +39.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 73.0 | 82.0 | 155.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 87.7 | 75.0 | 162.7 | +12.7 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 91.8 | 70.8 | 162.6 | +21.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 70.5 | 75.0 | 145.5 | -4.5 | 25% |
| vs Similar (12) | 76.4 | 78.6 | 155.0 | -2.2 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 80.3 | 68.2 | 148.6 | +12.1 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 77.8 | 70.4 | 148.2 | +7.4 | 60% |
| Season at home (3) | 83.7 | 62.3 | 146.0 | +21.3 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 69.0 | 82.5 | 151.5 | -13.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.7 | 76.5 | 150.2 | -2.8 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.8 | 70.4 | 148.2 | +7.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 68.9 | 83.0 | 152.0 | -14.1 | 9% |
| vs Similar (2) | 62.0 | 81.0 | 143.0 | -19.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 82.7 | 68.0 | 150.7 | +14.7 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 31.6 | 68.2 | +4.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 38.4 | 27.1 | 65.5 | +11.2 | 69% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 34.5 | 36.8 | 71.3 | -2.3 | 29% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.3 | 31.9 | 69.2 | +5.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.4 | 30.4 | 71.8 | +11.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 33.5 | 35.0 | 68.5 | -1.5 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 32.5 | 34.4 | 66.9 | -1.9 | 25% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 38.8 | 29.2 | 68.0 | +9.5 | 75% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.8 | 36.9 | 70.7 | -3.2 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 37.3 | 33.3 | 70.6 | +4.0 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 30.7 | 40.1 | 70.8 | -9.4 | 12% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.1 | 34.8 | 69.9 | +0.3 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.6 | 29.8 | 68.4 | +8.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (23) | 32.2 | 39.4 | 71.6 | -7.3 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 29.5 | 40.5 | 70.0 | -11.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 42.3 | 28.0 | 70.3 | +14.3 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17/12/23 | Longwood v VMI | 68-49 |
| 18/11/22 | Longwood v VMI | 90-58 |
| 01/12/20 | VMI v Longwood | 84-71 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | St. Mary's (MD) | 101-45 |
| 07/11/26 | H | N. Carolina Central | 80-75 OT |
| 05/11/26 | A | Saint Josephs Hawks | 73-82 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Pfeiffer Falcons | 123-67 |
| 06/03/26 | A | UNC Asheville | 82-85 OT |
| 28/02/26 | H | Radford | 90-74 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Charleston Southern | 107-96 OT |
| 20/02/26 | A | Presbyterian | 65-72 |
| 14/02/26 | H | USC Upstate | 82-75 OT |
| 13/02/26 | H | UNC Asheville | 74-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Mary Baldwin | 71-53 |
| 11/11/26 | H | N. Carolina Central | 65-51 |
| 07/11/26 | A | UTSA Roadrunners | 68-70 |
| 06/11/26 | A | SMU Mustangs | 70-95 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Virginia-Lynchburg | 115-83 |
| 07/03/26 | A | NC Greensboro | 70-84 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Chattanooga Mocs | 79-86 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Samford | 61-80 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Western Carolina | 62-81 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Wofford | 76-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWW | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 94.2 | 101.3 | 73.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.2 | 62.3 | 82.0 |
| Point differential | +27.0 | +39.0 | -9.0 |
| Avg total | 161.5 | 163.7 | 155.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 25% | 33% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLWW | 60% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.8 | 83.7 | 69.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.4 | 62.3 | 82.5 |
| Point differential | +7.4 | +21.3 | -13.5 |
| Avg total | 148.2 | 146.0 | 151.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  High Point | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 |
| 2 | Longwood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 94.2 | 67.2 | +27.0 |
| 3 |  UNC Asheville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 81.8 | -0.2 |
| 4 |  Charleston Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 76.3 | -2.7 |
| 5 |  USC Upstate | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75.0 | 68.8 | +6.2 |
| 6 |  Gardner Webb | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 61.5 | 82.2 | -20.8 |
| 7 |  Winthrop | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 89.0 | 94.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 |  Radford | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 59.7 | 76.7 | -17.0 |
| 9 |  Presbyterian | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 71.7 | 90.7 | -19.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Furman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 94.5 | 68.0 | +26.5 |
| 2 |  Citadel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.3 | 61.3 | +33.0 |
| 3 |  Western Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 74.3 | +22.7 |
| 4 | VMI | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.8 | 70.4 | +7.4 |
| 5 |  NC Greensboro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 70.8 | +10.2 |
| 6 |  Chattanooga Mocs | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.2 | 79.5 | +4.8 |
| 7 |  Wofford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.4 | 82.0 | +0.4 |
| 8 |  Mercer | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 78.2 | 80.6 | -2.4 |
| 9 |  Samford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 78.7 | -1.3 |
| 10 |  East Tennessee St | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.3 | 68.3 | -3.0 |
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