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LSU vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 14 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 89-77
47-44 42-33
Position#230
Record8-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game88.4
Allowed / game69.9
LSU 🏆
USA
vs
Position#129
Record9-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game76.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · LSU v SMU Mustangs
26 Nov 2026
LSU v SMU
upcoming
13 Dec 2025
LSU89
SMU 77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

LSU winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LSUUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#116
L
62-91
62
91
-29
A12/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
96-60
96
60
+36
H06/11
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
W
93-58
93
58
+35
H11/11
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
98-81
98
81
+17
H14/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
107-81
107
81
+26
H19/11
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
99-73
99
73
+26
H22/11
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
71-62
71
62
+9
A29/11
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
96-63
96
63
+33
A30/11
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
78-69 OT
78
69
+9
A04/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
58-82
58
82
-24
A07/12
NCAA
1H
2H
24-44
38-47
47-31
49-29
44-32
49-26
43-38
55-43
50-44
57-37
50-37
49-36
38-24
33-38
50-22
46-41
37-26
24-35
26-47
32-35
157.8Avg total
85.8Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)88.469.9158.3+18.689%
Season at home (5)98.670.6169.2+28.0100%
Season away (4)75.869.0144.8+6.875%
Last 10 (10)85.872.0157.8+13.880%
Last 5 (5)80.469.8150.2+10.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)64.678.9143.5-14.36%
vs Similar ◀ (7)89.069.3158.3+19.7100%
vs Weaker (5)94.864.6159.4+30.2100%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tarleton
#255
W
96-76
96
76
+20
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
102-91
102
91
+11
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
87-85
87
85
+2
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
106-60
106
60
+46
H19/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
100-69
100
69
+31
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H25/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
87-81 OT
87
81
+6
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
69-88
69
88
-19
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
93-80 OT
93
80
+13
H07/12
NCAA
1H
2H
48-38
48-38
32-28
37-30
49-42
53-49
38-43
49-42
45-26
61-34
50-30
50-39
46-38
43-34
39-43
35-31
38-48
31-40
41-27
36-50
165.8Avg total
89.8Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)89.876.0165.8+13.890%
Season at home (8)92.873.9166.6+18.9100%
Season away (2)78.084.5162.5-6.550%
Last 10 (10)89.876.0165.8+13.890%
Last 5 (5)87.678.0165.6+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)69.088.0157.0-19.00%
vs Similar ◀ (10)81.575.2156.7+6.360%
vs Weaker (18)82.070.1152.1+11.983%
This opponent (LSU) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: +6.5+6.52nd half: +5.6+5.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: +6.5+6.52nd half: +5.6+5.6
LSUSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LSULast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#116
L
24-44
24
44
-20
A12/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H06/11
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H11/11
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H14/11
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
50-44
50
44
+6
H19/11
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H22/11
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
38-24
38
24
+14
A29/11
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
50-22
50
22
+28
A30/11
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
37-26
37
26
+11
A04/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
26-47
26
47
-21
A07/12
NCAA
75.4Avg total
40.9Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.333.668.9+1.753%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.932.169.9+5.869%-
Last 30 away (14)32.435.367.6-2.936%-
Last 10 (10)40.934.575.4+6.480%-
Last 5 (5)40.231.271.4+9.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)30.336.166.3-5.828%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)42.630.673.1+12.086%-
vs Weaker (5)43.228.872.0+14.4100%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tarleton
#255
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H07/11
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H19/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H25/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H07/12
NCAA
78.9Avg total
42.6Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.433.272.7+6.267%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.033.473.4+6.679%-
Last 30 away (11)38.533.071.5+5.545%-
Last 10 (10)42.636.378.9+6.370%-
Last 5 (5)42.837.280.0+5.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)38.048.086.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)38.834.673.4+4.270%-
vs Weaker (18)40.231.771.9+8.567%-
This opponent (LSU) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
LSU wins
2
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
14/12/24SMU Mustangs v LSU74-64
25/03/14SMU Mustangs v LSU80-67
LSUlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/25ATexas Tech58-82
04/12/25ABoston College78-69 OT
30/11/25ADePaul96-63
29/11/25ADrake71-62
22/11/25HNebraska O.99-73
19/11/25HAlcorn State107-81
14/11/25HFlorida International98-81
11/11/25HNew Orleans93-58
06/11/25HTarleton96-60
12/03/25AMississippi St.62-91
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/25HTexas A&M93-80 OT
04/12/25AVanderbilt69-88
29/11/25AMississippi St.87-81 OT
25/11/25HRadford89-72
22/11/25HArkansas State100-69
19/11/25HArkansas-Pine Bluff106-60
15/11/25HButler87-85
12/11/25HMurray State102-91
07/11/25HTexas A&M-CC69-58
04/11/25HTarleton96-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

LSU
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL89%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %89%100%75%
Points / game88.498.675.8
Allowed / game69.970.669.0
Point differential+18.6+28.0+6.8
Avg total158.3169.2144.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %11%0%25%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW90%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1082
Win %90%100%50%
Points / game89.892.878.0
Allowed / game76.073.984.5
Point differential+13.8+18.9-6.5
Avg total165.8166.6162.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+70%88%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %20%12%50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vanderbilt10100100%95.472.9+22.5
2 Georgia109190%98.370.6+27.7
3 LSU98189%88.469.9+18.6
4 Missouri119282%87.270.7+16.5
5 Arkansas108280%88.172.5+15.6
6 Alabama97278%95.179.2+15.9
7 Auburn118373%86.576.8+9.6
8 Tennessee107370%80.966.0+14.9
9 Texas A&M107370%91.076.9+14.1
10 South Carolina107370%80.168.2+11.9
11 Oklahoma107370%84.775.1+9.6
12 Kentucky117464%84.366.4+17.9
13 Texas117464%86.773.0+13.7
14 Florida106460%82.072.2+9.8
15 Ole Miss106460%74.967.9+7.0
16 Mississippi St.95456%80.176.8+3.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke10100100%86.859.6+27.2
2 California1110191%82.669.2+13.5
3 Louisville109190%94.368.1+26.2
4 North Carolina109190%81.164.7+16.4
5 SMU Mustangs109190%89.876.0+13.8
6 Miami (FL)119282%87.366.5+20.7
7 Virginia119282%84.171.0+13.1
8 Virginia Tech119282%83.373.6+9.6
9 Stanford108280%82.373.2+9.1
10 Notre Dame129375%77.368.1+9.2
11 Clemson118373%81.866.4+15.5
12 Wake Forest107370%84.272.7+11.5
13 NC State117464%87.673.1+14.5
14 Syracuse106460%72.665.0+7.6
15 Georgia Tech106460%72.469.2+3.2
16 Florida State105550%85.380.9+4.4
17 Boston College115645%70.467.5+2.9
18 Pittsburgh115645%70.870.2+0.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
LSU474289
SMU Mustangs443377
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