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Macau Black Bears vs Meralco Bolts Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 11:30
Final 110-115
25-26 32-27 24-34 29-28
Position#11
Record0-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game99.8
Allowed / game111.8
vs
Position#6
Record4-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game106.4
Allowed / game98.8
PhilippinesCommissioners Cup
Other2025
Meetings · Macau Black Bears v Meralco Bolts
11 Apr 2026
MACA110
MERA115
06 Dec 2025
MACA91
MERA93
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Macau Black Bears winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Meralco Bolts winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Macau Black BearsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBears
Date
Competition
Meralco Bolts
#7
L
91-93
91
93
-2
82avg 68
H06/12
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
86-104
86
104
-18
77avg 68
A14/12
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
81-87
81
87
-6
65avg 68
A17/12
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
83-95
83
95
-12
66avg 68
H04/01
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
79-102
79
102
-23
65avg 68
H21/01
EASL
Converge FiberXers
#9
L
94-102
94
102
-8
no box
H11/03
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
L
109-116
109
116
-7
no box
A14/03
Commissioners Cup
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
L
93-110
93
110
-17
no box
H20/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
L
109-121
109
121
-12
no box
A28/03
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
L
94-110
94
110
-16
no box
A31/03
Commissioners Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-29
17-22
19-20
28-22
40-17
25-28
10-29
11-30
24-21
19-20
16-22
22-24
21-24
15-17
21-22
26-32
17-20
21-29
16-26
25-27
19-27
34-22
29-30
12-23
28-24
30-28
20-31
31-33
21-24
22-39
25-21
25-26
25-26
26-26
17-32
41-37
26-33
25-29
32-31
11-17
195.9Avg total
91.9Scored
104.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)99.8111.8211.6-12.00%
Season at home (2)93.5106.0199.5-12.50%
Season away (3)104.0115.7219.7-11.70%
Last 10 (10)91.9104.0195.9-12.10%
Last 5 (5)99.8111.8211.6-12.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)92.7102.8195.5-10.114%
vs Similar (7)92.695.7188.3-3.129%
vs Weaker (9)97.089.4186.4+7.667%
This opponent (Meralco Bolts) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Meralco BoltsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBolts
Date
Competition
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
72-82
72
82
-10
58avg 74
A02/11
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
W
85-76
85
76
+9
74avg 74
H08/11
EASL
Macau Black Bears
#12
W
92-74
92
74
+18
92avg 74
H15/11
EASL
Macau Black Bears
#12
W
93-91
93
91
+2
92avg 74
A06/12
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
79-88
79
88
-9
66avg 74
H11/02
EASL
Converge FiberXers
#9
W
109-88
109
88
+21
no box
H18/03
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
93-86
93
86
+7
no box
A21/03
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
L
102-109
102
109
-7
no box
H27/03
Commissioners Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#13
W
118-105
118
105
+13
no box
A29/03
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
W
110-106
110
106
+4
no box
H07/04
Commissioners Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-21
14-22
17-21
25-18
23-14
20-16
23-20
19-26
25-24
23-14
17-14
27-22
29-27
22-17
20-19
22-28
16-26
20-25
22-23
21-14
22-27
26-18
31-20
30-23
18-23
29-26
26-22
20-15
23-29
21-22
32-27
26-31
26-16
35-26
28-23
29-40
27-21
27-19
34-31
22-35
185.8Avg total
95.3Scored
90.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)106.498.8205.2+7.680%
Season at home (3)107.0101.0208.0+6.067%
Season away (2)105.595.5201.0+10.0100%
Last 10 (10)95.390.5185.8+4.870%
Last 5 (5)106.498.8205.2+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)92.799.8192.5-7.231%
vs Similar (9)90.398.2188.6-7.922%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)103.989.1193.0+14.8100%
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: -1.1-1.1
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: -1.1-1.1
Macau Black BearsMeralco Bolts
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Macau Black BearsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Meralco Bolts
#7
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H06/12
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
W
65-45
65
45
+20
A14/12
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A17/12
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H04/01
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H21/01
EASL
Converge FiberXers
#9
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H11/03
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A14/03
Commissioners Cup
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
L
43-63
43
63
-20
H20/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A28/03
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A31/03
Commissioners Cup
98.7Avg total
48.2Scored
50.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.048.695.7-1.640%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.449.195.5-2.644%-
Last 30 away (14)47.748.195.9-0.436%-
Last 10 (10)48.250.598.7-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)51.255.6106.8-4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)47.651.198.7-3.436%-
vs Similar (7)45.447.993.3-2.443%-
vs Weaker (9)47.345.492.8+1.944%-
This opponent (Meralco Bolts) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Meralco BoltsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
30-43
30
43
-13
A02/11
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
W
43-30
43
30
+13
H08/11
EASL
Macau Black Bears
#12
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H15/11
EASL
Macau Black Bears
#12
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A06/12
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
36-51
36
51
-15
H11/02
EASL
Converge FiberXers
#9
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H18/03
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
L
47-49
47
49
-2
A21/03
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H27/03
Commissioners Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#13
W
61-42
61
42
+19
A29/03
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H07/04
Commissioners Cup
89.5Avg total
46.2Scored
43.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.147.292.3-2.237%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.948.193.1-3.238%-
Last 30 away (14)45.246.291.4-1.036%-
Last 10 (10)46.243.389.5+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)50.845.496.2+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)43.348.391.6-5.031%-
vs Similar (9)42.748.391.0-5.711%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)50.644.294.9+6.475%-
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Macau Black Bearstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Macau Black Bears: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.3 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.320.2
48.8%
-40.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.59.8
33.3%
-29.5
🏀 Free throws16.011.8
74.0%
-11.8
They take 70.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Meralco Boltstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Meralco Bolts: 68.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀62%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 62% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers14.7 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.921.0
50.1%
-42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.14.9
27.1%
-14.7
🏀 Free throws17.711.5
65.0%
-11.5
They take 60.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 30% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/10 games with a box score before 11 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Macau Black Bears
LLLLLLLLLL
Meralco Bolts
WWLWWLWWWL
#11
League position
#6
-16.2
Net rating
+0.9
100.6
Offensive rating
102.7
116.8
Defensive rating
101.8
49.3%
Effective FG%
47.2%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
46.0%
12.8%
Turnover %
12.2%
20.5%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.29
33.3%
3-point %
27.1%
45.0%
Assist %
59.5%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)0% · 70%
■ Macau Black Bears   ■ Meralco Bolts
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Macau Black Bears wins
3
Meralco Bolts wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/03/26ASan Miguel Beermen94-110
28/03/26AMagnolia Hotshots109-121
20/03/26HBarangay Ginebra San Miguel93-110
14/03/26ARain or Shine Elasto Painters109-116
11/03/26HConverge FiberXers94-102
21/01/26HRyukyu79-102
04/01/26HTaoyuan Pauian Pilots83-95
17/12/25ARyukyu81-87
14/12/25ATaoyuan Pauian Pilots86-104
06/12/25HMeralco Bolts91-93
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/04/26HTNT Tropang Giga110-106
29/03/26ATitan Ultra Giant Risers118-105
27/03/26HRain or Shine Elasto Painters102-109
21/03/26APhoenix Fuelmasters93-86
18/03/26HConverge FiberXers109-88
11/02/26HRyukyu79-88
06/12/25AMacau Black Bears93-91
15/11/25HMacau Black Bears92-74
08/11/25HTaoyuan Pauian Pilots85-76
02/11/25ATaoyuan Pauian Pilots72-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Macau Black Bears
Commissioners Cup 2025
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game99.893.5104.0
Allowed / game111.8106.0115.7
Point differential-12.0-12.5-11.7
Avg total211.6199.5219.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Meralco Bolts
Commissioners Cup 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW80%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%67%100%
Points / game106.4107.0105.5
Allowed / game98.8101.095.5
Point differential+7.6+6.0+10.0
Avg total205.2208.0201.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rain or Shine Elasto Painters660100%120.7106.3+14.3
2 Meralco Bolts54180%106.498.8+7.6
3 NLEX Road Warriors54180%106.2100.8+5.4
4 Phoenix Fuelmasters53260%106.298.4+7.8
5 TNT Tropang Giga53260%107.4100.0+7.4
6 Barangay Ginebra San Miguel53260%99.095.6+3.4
7 Terrafirma Dyip63350%97.798.2-0.5
8 San Miguel Beermen63350%102.3104.7-2.3
9 Titan Ultra Giant Risers52340%96.8109.8-13.0
10 Magnolia Hotshots62433%98.296.7+1.5
11 Blackwater Bossing51420%91.8105.4-13.6
12 Converge FiberXers61517%98.8106.0-7.2
13 Macau Black Bears5050%99.8111.8-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Macau Black Bears25322429110
Meralco Bolts26273428115
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