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Marquette vs Missouri Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Projected 79-68
Projected total 146.5
Scheduled
Position#146
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game53.0
Marquette
USA
Vs
83%
17%
■ MARQ 83%■ MISS 17%
Pythia win probability
Missouri
USA
Position#145
Record2-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game97.0
Allowed / game66.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Marquette faces Missouri on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Marquette at 83% because of their 2-1 record, 80.3 points per game and 53.0 allowed, and a perfect 2-0 home record with 85.5 points scored and 37.5 allowed; Missouri also sits 2-1 with 97.0 points scored and 66.0 allowed, but their last five games show 2 wins and 3 losses and they have yet to win on the road. Marquette's last five games include a 93-32 win over Detroit and a 78-43 win over Mercyhurst, while Missouri's recent results feature a 96-58 win over Siu Edwardsville and a 111-50 win over Cleveland State. The teams have met once before, with the last encounter noted as a 84-90 loss for Missouri. Pythia projects a 79-68 score, giving Marquette a 83% chance to win and 83% to cover the 0.0 line, while the over on the 153.5 total has a 33% probability; the game has a 3% chance of overtime. The projected total of 146.5 points places the contest below the over line.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marquette win
83.0%fair 1.20
Best odds1.89
Implied50.9%
Edge+32.1pp
Missouri win
17.0%fair 5.89
Best odds1.96
Implied49.1%
Edge-32.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MarquetteUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Xavier
#248
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A14/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
70-76
70
76
-6
H19/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
76-60
76
60
+16
A25/02
NCAA
DePaul
#213
L
51-62
51
62
-11
H01/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
W
78-56
78
56
+22
A05/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
68-62
68
62
+6
H07/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
87-89
87
89
-2
H11/03
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#317
W
78-43
78
43
+35
H03/11
NCAA
Detroit
#453
W
93-32
93
32
+61
H07/11
NCAA
Michigan
#163
L
70-84
70
84
-14
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-51
53-45
35-44
35-32
40-35
36-25
14-32
37-30
37-23
41-33
33-35
35-27
38-38
49-51
36-14
42-29
41-19
52-13
27-35
43-49
141.9Avg total
75.9Scored
66.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)80.353.0133.3+27.367%
Season at home (2)85.537.5123.0+48.0100%
Season away (1)70.084.0154.0-14.00%
Last 10 (10)75.966.0141.9+9.950%
Last 5 (5)79.262.0141.2+17.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)68.977.6146.5-8.78%
vs Similar ◀ (15)76.774.7151.4+1.953%
vs Weaker (3)80.353.0133.3+27.367%
This opponent (Missouri) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MissouriUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
L
86-94
86
94
-8
A21/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
73-69
73
69
+4
H25/02
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
88-64
88
64
+24
A28/02
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
64-80
64
80
-16
A04/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H07/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
72-78
72
78
-6
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
66-80
66
80
-14
A21/03
NCAA
Cleveland State
#246
W
111-50
111
50
+61
H04/11
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#14
L
84-90
84
90
-6
H07/11
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#256
W
96-58
96
58
+38
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-47
45-47
26-29
47-40
54-23
34-41
26-35
38-45
36-39
38-35
29-38
43-40
26-27
40-53
56-18
55-32
38-49
46-41
48-24
48-34
157.5Avg total
82.4Scored
75.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)97.066.0163.0+31.067%
Season at home (3)97.066.0163.0+31.067%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.475.1157.5+7.340%
Last 5 (5)85.871.2157.0+14.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)72.282.2154.4-10.033%
vs Similar ◀ (11)74.480.1154.5-5.736%
vs Weaker (10)87.964.8152.7+23.190%
This opponent (Marquette) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5
Over 148.5
44.6%
@ 1.45-20.3pp
Under 148.5
55.4%
@ 2.72+20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.55
Over/Under 153.5 · main line
Over 153.5
32.9%
@ 1.90-17.1pp
Under 153.5
67.1%
@ 2.00+17.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 158.5
Over 158.5
22.8%
@ 2.35-16.6pp
Under 158.5
77.2%
@ 1.54+16.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Marquette total 73
Over 73
72.3%
Under 73
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marquette total 77 · main line
Over 77
57.0%
@ 1.85+7.0pp
Under 77
43.0%
@ 1.85-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marquette total 81
Over 81
40.4%
Under 81
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Missouri total 72
Over 72
32.9%
Under 72
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Missouri total 76 · main line
Over 76
20.1%
@ 1.85-29.9pp
Under 76
79.9%
@ 1.85+29.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Missouri total 80
Over 80
11.2%
Under 80
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Marquette -4
MARQ -4
74.7%
@ 2.22+33.1pp
MISS +4
25.3%
@ 1.58-33.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MARQ
Bet365
2.22
MISS
Bet365
1.58
Spread Marquette -1 · main line
MARQ -1
82.7%
@ 1.93+32.8pp
MISS +1
17.3%
@ 1.96-32.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MARQ
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
MISS
Bet365
1.96
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.84
Spread Marquette +2
MARQ +2
86.6%
@ 1.73+30.2pp
MISS -2
13.4%
@ 2.20-30.2pp
Best 5 market prices
MARQ
Marathon Be
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
MISS
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathon Be
2.00

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +8.9+8.92nd half: +2.6+2.6
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +8.9+8.92nd half: +2.6+2.6
MarquetteMissouri
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MarquetteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Xavier
#248
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A14/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H19/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A25/02
NCAA
DePaul
#213
L
14-32
14
32
-18
H01/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
W
37-23
37
23
+14
A05/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H07/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/03
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#317
W
36-14
36
14
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Detroit
#453
W
41-19
41
19
+22
H07/11
NCAA
Michigan
#163
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A12/11
NCAA
66.2Avg total
33.6Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)35.235.170.2+0.140%53%
Last 30 at home (17)36.232.969.1+3.447%47%
Last 30 away (13)33.837.971.7-4.231%62%
Last 10 (10)33.632.666.2+1.040%40%
Last 5 (5)35.028.263.2+6.840%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)33.638.371.9-4.817%58%
vs Similar ◀ (15)36.534.971.5+1.653%60%
vs Weaker (3)34.722.757.3+12.067%0%
This opponent (Missouri) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MissouriLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A21/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
26-29
26
29
-3
H25/02
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
54-23
54
23
+31
A28/02
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
26-35
26
35
-9
A04/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
26-27
26
27
-1
A21/03
NCAA
Cleveland State
#246
W
56-18
56
18
+38
H04/11
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#14
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H07/11
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#256
W
48-24
48
24
+24
H10/11
NCAA
70.9Avg total
38.0Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)37.033.870.8+3.243%43%
Last 30 at home (17)39.632.572.1+7.153%47%
Last 30 away (13)33.635.669.2-2.031%38%
Last 10 (10)38.032.970.9+5.130%50%
Last 5 (5)39.431.270.6+8.240%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)31.635.967.4-4.311%33%
vs Similar ◀ (11)32.737.470.1-4.618%36%
vs Weaker (10)46.628.174.7+18.5100%60%
This opponent (Marquette) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
MARQ win
no forecast
@ 1.85
MISS win
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Marquette 0 · main line
MARQ 0
no forecast
@ 1.79
MISS 0
no forecast
@ 1.92
1st half Over/Under 72.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Marquette 1st half total 36.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Missouri 1st half total 36.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Marquette -1.5
MARQ -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
MISS +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Marquette +1.5
MARQ +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
MISS -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.60
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Marquette -2.5
MARQ -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
MISS +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Marquette +2.5
MARQ +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
MISS -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Spread Marquette -3.5
MARQ -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
MISS +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Marquette +3.5
MARQ +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
MISS -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
MARQ
no forecast
@ 1.91
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
MISS
no forecast
@ 2.02

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MARQ win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
MISS win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MARQ leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MISS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Marquette -377.4%2.17
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.05		---+35.5pp
Missouri under 73.571.6%2.40
Betano
2.40		----+33.9pp
Marquette (regulation)81.0%1.89
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.88		---+33.4pp
Marquette win83.0%1.85
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		+32.1pp
Under 15774.8%1.64
Bet365
1.64		----+18.4pp
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🔒 77 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Marquette wins
0
Missouri wins
No previous meetings.
Marquettelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AMichigan70-84
07/11/26HDetroit93-32
03/11/26HMercyhurst Lakers78-43
11/03/26HXavier87-89
07/03/26HUconn68-62
05/03/26AProvidence78-56
01/03/26HDePaul51-62
25/02/26AGeorgetown76-60
19/02/26HSt. John's (N.Y.)70-76
14/02/26AXavier88-96
Missourilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HSiu Edwardsville96-58
07/11/26HSt. Louis Billikens84-90
04/11/26HCleveland State111-50
21/03/26AMiami (FL)66-80
12/03/26HKentucky72-78
07/03/26HArkansas84-88 OT
04/03/26AOklahoma64-80
28/02/26AMississippi St.88-64
25/02/26HTennessee73-69
21/02/26AArkansas86-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Marquette
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game80.385.570.0
Allowed / game53.037.584.0
Point differential+27.3+48.0-14.0
Avg total133.3123.0154.0
Over 153.533%0%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Missouri
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWLW67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game97.097.0-
Allowed / game66.066.0-
Point differential+31.0+31.0-
Avg total163.0163.0-
Over 153.5100%100%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier440100%88.555.8+32.8
2 St. John's (N.Y.)330100%90.762.3+28.3
3 Uconn440100%84.558.0+26.5
4 DePaul440100%77.058.0+19.0
5 Georgetown440100%83.572.0+11.5
6 Villanova43175%86.565.2+21.2
7 Providence43175%71.557.8+13.8
8 Seton Hall43175%69.261.5+7.8
9 Marquette32167%80.353.0+27.3
10 Creighton32167%80.368.3+12.0
11 Butler42250%85.075.2+9.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
3 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
4 LSU440100%90.859.5+31.2
5 Vanderbilt440100%90.260.2+30.0
6 South Carolina440100%78.856.5+22.2
7 Alabama440100%97.076.0+21.0
8 Florida440100%82.262.5+19.8
9 Tennessee330100%81.061.3+19.7
10 Georgia440100%81.870.2+11.5
11 Mississippi St.43175%87.267.5+19.8
12 Arkansas43175%83.267.8+15.5
13 Oklahoma43175%75.863.8+12.0
14 Kentucky43175%80.275.8+4.5
15 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
16 Auburn32167%78.764.0+14.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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