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MBA Moscow vs Samara Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:30
Projected 95-71
Projected total 166.0
Scheduled
Position#7
Record4-5
FormLWLWW
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game90.0
Vs
97%
■ MMO 97%■ SAM 3%
Pythia win probability
Position#11
Record0-10
FormLLLLL
Points / game67.9
Allowed / game96.6
RussiaVTB United League· Krylatskoe Sport Palace
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · MBA Moscow v Samara
18 Nov 2026
MMO v SAM
upcoming
22 Apr 2026
MMO79
SAM61
30 Oct 2025
MMO95
SAM87
08 Mar 2025
MMO99
SAM60
02 Oct 2024
MMO79
SAM86
01 Mar 2024
MMO69
SAM79
14 Oct 2023
MMO65
SAM77
29 Nov 2022
MMO71
SAM60
05 Mar 2022
MMO77
SAM82
14 Feb 2021
MMO64
SAM86
15 Jan 2020
MMO66
SAM101
Sections
Game preview & prediction

MBA Moscow will host Samara on 18 November 2026 in the VTB United League, and the Pythia model names MBA Moscow as the clear favourite, assigning a 97% chance of victory, a reflection of their 4-5 season record, 88.0 points per game and 90.0 points allowed per game, and a 7th-place league position. Samara, meanwhile, has gone 0-10 this season, averaging 67.9 points scored and 96.6 points allowed, and sits 11th in the standings. At home, MBA Moscow is 3-1 with 93.8 points per game and 85.2 allowed, while Samara has never won a road game, going 0-4 and scoring 65.8 points per game against 92.2 allowed. In the last five meetings, MBA Moscow won three and lost two, including a 114-95 home win over Dynamo Vladivostok on 14 November and a 103-73 victory over Saratov on 10 November, whereas Samara's recent results include losses to CSKA Moscow, Zenit Petersburg and Parma Perm. The teams have met ten times, with MBA Moscow winning seven; the most recent encounter on 22 April 2026 saw MBA Moscow beat Samara 79-61. Pythia projects a 95-71 score, 166 total points, a 23.5-point home line with a 50% chance of covering, and a 167.5 total line with a 46% over probability, with a 1% chance of overtime. The game will be decided by MBA Moscow's superior offensive output and defensive consistency.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MBA Moscow win
96.7%fair 1.03
Best odds1.02
Implied94.0%
Edge+2.7pp
Samara win
3.3%fair 30.41
Best odds16.00
Implied6.0%
Edge-2.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MBA MoscowRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unics Kazan
#2
L
63-74
63
74
-11
H02/05
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
65-82
65
82
-17
H27/09
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
87-92
87
92
-5
A03/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
W
93-91
93
91
+2
H13/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
L
83-94
83
94
-11
A18/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A22/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
W
106-99 OT
106
99
+7
A01/11
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
85-101
85
101
-16
A07/11
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
103-73
103
73
+30
H10/11
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
114-95
114
95
+19
H14/11
VTB United League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
20-16
13-11
10-23
14-25
11-30
22-13
18-14
25-17
22-24
21-27
19-24
14-31
31-17
31-21
17-22
31-13
19-19
9-35
24-27
12-17
19-22
20-23
5-21
24-18
19-28
17-18
19-15
17-25
24-25
28-26
16-25
25-19
33-17
29-15
16-22
35-30
32-32
28-20
19-13
173.9Avg total
85.5Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)88.090.0178.0-2.044%
Season at home (4)93.885.2179.0+8.575%
Season away (5)83.493.8177.2-10.420%
Last 10 (10)85.588.4173.9-2.940%
Last 5 (5)92.890.2183.0+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)72.587.8160.3-15.37%
vs Similar (7)82.681.9164.4+0.757%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)95.078.7173.7+16.389%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamaraRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Saratov
#9
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A26/09
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
L
84-98
84
98
-14
H04/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
62-117
62
117
-55
H07/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
L
70-91
70
91
-21
A14/10
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
75-94
75
94
-19
H17/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
65-99
65
99
-34
H21/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
62-92
62
92
-30
H25/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
68-109
68
109
-41
A03/11
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
56-92
56
92
-36
A11/11
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
68-97
68
97
-29
H14/11
VTB United League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-7
17-24
9-27
24-19
23-34
27-20
19-26
15-18
15-25
14-25
21-34
12-33
20-25
16-14
14-30
20-22
23-17
17-29
16-20
19-28
19-31
13-17
19-27
14-24
17-21
14-28
15-24
16-19
13-23
19-29
21-25
15-32
12-27
13-23
20-19
11-23
23-29
17-22
8-22
20-24
164.5Avg total
67.9Scored
96.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)67.996.6164.5-28.70%
Season at home (6)69.399.5168.8-30.20%
Season away (4)65.892.2158.0-26.50%
Last 10 (10)67.996.6164.5-28.70%
Last 5 (5)63.897.8161.6-34.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)69.694.5164.0-24.93%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (MBA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1251%1302%1354%1406%1458%15010%15512%16012%16512%17010%1758%1806%1853%1902%1951%2001%205
1%1252%1356%14510%15512%16510%1756%1852%1951%205
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 167.5.
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
58.7%
@ 1.46-3.5pp
Under 162.5
41.3%
@ 2.40+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 167.5 · main line
Over 167.5
46.2%
@ 1.83-3.8pp
Under 167.5
53.8%
@ 1.83+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 172.5
Over 172.5
34.1%
@ 2.40-3.7pp
Under 172.5
65.9%
@ 1.46+3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46

📊 3. Team Totals

MBA Moscow total 91.5
Over 91.5
62.9%
Under 91.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MBA Moscow total 95.5 · main line
Over 95.5
47.3%
@ 1.84-2.0pp
Under 95.5
52.7%
@ 1.79+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.79
MBA Moscow total 99
Over 99
33.4%
Under 99
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samara total 68.5
Over 68.5
60.3%
Under 68.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samara total 72.5 · main line
Over 72.5
44.6%
@ 1.84-4.7pp
Under 72.5
55.4%
@ 1.79+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.79
Samara total 76.5
Over 76.5
29.8%
Under 76.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%1%-91%-61%-31%+03%+34%+65%+96%+128%+159%+1810%+2110%+249%+278%+307%+335%+364%+393%+422%+451%+481%+510%+54
1%-61%+04%+66%+129%+1810%+248%+305%+363%+421%+480%+54
Margin from MBA Moscow's side (positive = MBA Moscow win). Pythia's expected margin is +23.6; MBA Moscow win by 1+ in 95% of simulations.
Spread MBA Moscow -26.5
MMO -26.5
40.7%
@ 2.26+0.6pp
SAM +26.5
59.3%
@ 1.51-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
1xBet
2.26
SAM
1xBet
1.51
Spread MBA Moscow -23.5 · main line
MMO -23.5
50.3%
@ 1.88+1.7pp
SAM +23.5
49.7%
@ 1.78-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
1xBet
1.88
SAM
1xBet
1.78
Spread MBA Moscow -20.5
MMO -20.5
60.1%
@ 1.58+2.8pp
SAM +20.5
39.9%
@ 2.12-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
1xBet
1.58
SAM
1xBet
2.12

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -6.4-6.4Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -9.2-9.2Q4Q4: -4.3-4.3Q4: -7.6-7.6
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -6.4-6.4Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -9.2-9.2Q4Q4: -4.3-4.3Q4: -7.6-7.6
MBA MoscowSamara
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MBA MoscowLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unics Kazan
#2
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H02/05
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
25-55
25
55
-30
H27/09
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A03/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H13/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
50-32
50
32
+18
A18/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
31-39
31
39
-8
A22/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A01/11
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A07/11
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
58-36
58
36
+22
H10/11
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
67-62
67
62
+5
H14/11
VTB United League
89.6Avg total
44.7Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)41.743.485.2-1.747%47%
Last 30 at home (15)42.945.488.3-2.547%53%
Last 30 away (15)40.541.582.0-0.947%40%
Last 10 (10)44.744.989.6-0.240%60%
Last 5 (5)48.046.694.6+1.440%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)36.046.482.4-10.421%29%
vs Similar (7)43.143.686.7-0.443%71%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)49.638.888.3+10.889%56%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamaraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Saratov
#9
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A26/09
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H04/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
29-50
29
50
-21
H07/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A14/10
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H17/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
32-48
32
48
-16
H21/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H25/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
32-52
32
52
-20
A03/11
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
25-50
25
50
-25
A11/11
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
40-51
40
51
-11
H14/11
VTB United League
82.1Avg total
35.1Scored
47.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 83.5
Last 30 (30)34.646.981.4-12.317%47%
Last 30 at home (18)35.148.683.7-13.611%50%
Last 30 away (12)33.844.278.1-10.425%42%
Last 10 (10)35.147.082.1-11.910%40%
Last 5 (5)32.050.082.0-18.00%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)34.646.981.4-12.317%47%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (MBA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread MBA Moscow -12.5 · main line
MMO -12.5
48.5%
@ 1.83-2.0pp
SAM +12.5
51.5%
@ 1.87+2.0pp
1st half Over/Under 83.5 · main line
Over
48.6%
@ 1.85-1.4pp
Under
51.4%
@ 1.85+1.4pp
MBA Moscow 1st half total 48.5 · main line
Over
45.1%
@ 1.84-3.5pp
Under
54.9%
@ 1.74+3.5pp
Samara 1st half total 35.5 · main line
Over
50.1%
@ 1.77-0.5pp
Under
49.9%
@ 1.81+0.5pp
1st half Spread MBA Moscow -13.5
MMO -13.5
44.2%
@ 1.99-2.3pp
SAM +13.5
55.8%
@ 1.73+2.3pp
1st half Spread MBA Moscow -11.5
MMO -11.5
52.5%
@ 1.70-1.9pp
SAM +11.5
47.5%
@ 2.03+1.9pp
1st half Over/Under 81.5
Over
56.4%
@ 1.63-0.3pp
Under
43.6%
@ 2.13+0.3pp
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
MMO
88.9%
@ 1.05+3.5pp
Draw
1.9%
@ 28.00-1.3pp
SAM
9.2%
@ 7.90-2.2pp

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
MBA Moscow wins
3
Samara wins
DateGameScore
22/04/26MBA Moscow v Samara79-61
04/02/26Samara v MBA Moscow51-102
30/10/25MBA Moscow v Samara95-87
18/10/25Samara v MBA Moscow70-78
08/03/25MBA Moscow v Samara99-60
11/01/25Samara v MBA Moscow78-80
17/11/24Samara v MBA Moscow101-88
02/10/24MBA Moscow v Samara79-86
20/04/24Samara v MBA Moscow85-77
04/04/24Samara v MBA Moscow69-73
MBA Moscowlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HDynamo Vladivostok114-95
10/11/26HSaratov103-73
07/11/26AUralmash Ekaterinburg85-101
01/11/26AEnisey106-99 OT
22/10/26AUnics Kazan56-83
18/10/26ASaratov83-94
13/10/26HParma Perm93-91
03/10/26ALokomotiv Kuban87-92
27/09/26HCSKA Moscow65-82
02/05/26HUnics Kazan63-74
Samaralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCSKA Moscow68-97
11/11/26AZenit Petersburg56-92
03/11/26AParma Perm68-109
25/10/26HLokomotiv Kuban62-92
21/10/26HZenit Petersburg65-99
17/10/26HUralmash Ekaterinburg75-94
14/10/26AEnisey70-91
07/10/26HUnics Kazan62-117
04/10/26HDynamo Vladivostok84-98
26/09/26ASaratov69-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

MBA Moscow
VTB United League 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW44%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayLLLWL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %44%75%20%
Points / game88.093.883.4
Allowed / game90.085.293.8
Point differential-2.0+8.5-10.4
Avg total178.0179.0177.2
Over 167.578%75%80%
Win by 10+22%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %11%0%20%
Samara
VTB United League 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game67.969.365.8
Allowed / game96.699.592.2
Point differential-28.7-30.2-26.5
Avg total164.5168.8158.0
Over 167.540%50%25%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 CSKA Moscow10100100%92.670.4+22.2
2 Lokomotiv Kuban87188%91.476.5+14.9
3 Unics Kazan97278%93.174.8+18.3
4 Zenit Petersburg107370%85.075.1+9.9
5 Uralmash Ekaterinburg95456%84.384.2+0.1
6 Parma Perm94544%87.486.4+1.0
7 MBA Moscow94544%88.090.0-2.0
8 Dynamo Vladivostok103730%88.197.3-9.2
9 Saratov103730%72.888.8-16.0
10 Enisey81712%81.488.6-7.2
11 Samara100100%67.996.6-28.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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