MBA Moscow will host Samara on 18 November 2026 in the VTB United League, and the Pythia model names MBA Moscow as the clear favourite, assigning a 97% chance of victory, a reflection of their 4-5 season record, 88.0 points per game and 90.0 points allowed per game, and a 7th-place league position. Samara, meanwhile, has gone 0-10 this season, averaging 67.9 points scored and 96.6 points allowed, and sits 11th in the standings. At home, MBA Moscow is 3-1 with 93.8 points per game and 85.2 allowed, while Samara has never won a road game, going 0-4 and scoring 65.8 points per game against 92.2 allowed. In the last five meetings, MBA Moscow won three and lost two, including a 114-95 home win over Dynamo Vladivostok on 14 November and a 103-73 victory over Saratov on 10 November, whereas Samara's recent results include losses to CSKA Moscow, Zenit Petersburg and Parma Perm. The teams have met ten times, with MBA Moscow winning seven; the most recent encounter on 22 April 2026 saw MBA Moscow beat Samara 79-61. Pythia projects a 95-71 score, 166 total points, a 23.5-point home line with a 50% chance of covering, and a 167.5 total line with a 46% over probability, with a 1% chance of overtime. The game will be decided by MBA Moscow's superior offensive output and defensive consistency.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MBA Moscow win
96.7%fair 1.03
Best odds1.02
Implied94.0%
Edge+2.7pp
Samara win
3.3%fair 30.41
Best odds16.00
Implied6.0%
Edge-2.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (MBA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 167.5.
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
58.7%
@ 1.46-3.5pp
Under 162.5
41.3%
@ 2.40+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 167.5 · main line
Over 167.5
46.2%
@ 1.83-3.8pp
Under 167.5
53.8%
@ 1.83+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 172.5
Over 172.5
34.1%
@ 2.40-3.7pp
Under 172.5
65.9%
@ 1.46+3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46
📊 3. Team Totals
MBA Moscow total 91.5
Over 91.5
62.9%
Under 91.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MBA Moscow total 95.5 · main line
Over 95.5
47.3%
@ 1.84-2.0pp
Under 95.5
52.7%
@ 1.79+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.79
MBA Moscow total 99
Over 99
33.4%
Under 99
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samara total 68.5
Over 68.5
60.3%
Under 68.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samara total 72.5 · main line
Over 72.5
44.6%
@ 1.84-4.7pp
Under 72.5
55.4%
@ 1.79+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.79
Samara total 76.5
Over 76.5
29.8%
Under 76.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from MBA Moscow's side (positive = MBA Moscow win). Pythia's expected margin is +23.6; MBA Moscow win by 1+ in 95% of simulations.
Spread MBA Moscow -26.5
MMO -26.5
40.7%
@ 2.26+0.6pp
SAM +26.5
59.3%
@ 1.51-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
1xBet
2.26
SAM
1xBet
1.51
Spread MBA Moscow -23.5 · main line
MMO -23.5
50.3%
@ 1.88+1.7pp
SAM +23.5
49.7%
@ 1.78-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
1xBet
1.88
SAM
1xBet
1.78
Spread MBA Moscow -20.5
MMO -20.5
60.1%
@ 1.58+2.8pp
SAM +20.5
39.9%
@ 2.12-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
1xBet
1.58
SAM
1xBet
2.12
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
MBA MoscowSamara
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MBA MoscowLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unics Kazan
#2
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H02/05
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
14-25
14
25
-11
H27/09
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
W
25-17
25
17
+8
A03/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
14-31
14
31
-17
H13/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
31-13
31
13
+18
A18/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
12-17
12
17
-5
A22/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
W
24-18
24
18
+6
A01/11
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
17-25
17
25
-8
A07/11
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
25-19
25
19
+6
H10/11
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H14/11
VTB United League
43.6Avg total
21.7Scored
21.9Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)
20.6
21.4
42.1
-0.8
40%
67%
Last 30 at home (15)
20.7
22.7
43.4
-1.9
40%
67%
Last 30 away (15)
20.5
20.2
40.7
+0.3
40%
67%
Last 10 (10)
21.7
21.9
43.6
-0.2
50%
80%
Last 5 (5)
22.6
21.8
44.4
+0.8
60%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)
18.7
21.8
40.5
-3.1
29%
50%
vs Similar (7)
20.4
23.3
43.7
-2.9
29%
86%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)
23.8
19.4
43.2
+4.3
67%
78%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (MBA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
No special markets priced for this game yet.
🔥 7. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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PythiaBasketballBETA
CSKA Moscow
Lokomotiv Kuban
Unics Kazan
Zenit Petersburg
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
Parma Perm
Dynamo Vladivostok
Saratov
Enisey
