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Melbourne Tigers vs Casey Cavaliers Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 18 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 10:30
Final 97-94
28-19 17-20 22-27 30-28
Position#4
Record12-8
FormWWLLW
Points / game86.5
Allowed / game80.7
vs
Position#10
Record11-9
FormWLLLW
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game86.2
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Melbourne Tigers v Casey Cavaliers
18 Jul 2025
MELB97
CASE94
06 Jun 2024
MELB84
CASE79
09 Jul 2023
MELB90
CASE79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne Tigers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Casey Cavaliers winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne TigersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#17
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
101-74
101
74
+27
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
85-78
85
78
+7
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
79-91
79
91
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
W
95-84
95
84
+11
A20/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H28/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
85-66
85
66
+19
H29/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
71-92
71
92
-21
A05/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
82-93
82
93
-11
A08/07
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
87-77
87
77
+10
H11/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-26
16-24
20-24
20-15
24-22
29-17
21-16
27-19
22-16
17-19
24-22
22-21
31-22
15-27
22-22
11-20
16-24
25-19
40-19
14-22
25-20
20-20
21-16
32-27
17-26
17-16
20-13
31-11
17-22
16-27
18-22
20-21
26-19
15-33
25-15
16-26
25-10
22-23
22-26
18-18
169.6Avg total
86.9Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)86.580.7167.2+5.860%
Season at home (10)86.179.2165.3+6.960%
Season away (10)86.882.2169.0+4.660%
Last 10 (10)86.982.7169.6+4.260%
Last 5 (5)84.682.2166.8+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)86.482.8169.2+3.660%
vs Similar ◀ (14)75.683.1158.8-7.521%
vs Weaker (11)89.576.2165.6+13.391%
This opponent (Casey Cavaliers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Casey CavaliersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
81-83 OT
81
83
-2
H24/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
90-80
90
80
+10
A31/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
100-103
100
103
-3
H06/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
102-82
102
82
+20
H14/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
93-109
93
109
-16
H21/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
89-77
89
77
+12
A28/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
83-93
83
93
-10
H29/06
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
86-99
86
99
-13
A05/07
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
87-109
87
109
-22
H11/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A12/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-15
14-25
15-13
22-16
20-30
18-17
23-15
29-18
30-21
24-30
14-24
32-28
26-16
27-24
26-18
23-24
25-22
21-36
29-28
18-23
23-15
26-19
16-22
24-21
21-21
21-23
18-24
23-25
26-25
20-18
23-26
17-30
18-27
23-18
22-30
24-34
26-15
17-20
13-19
21-17
179.4Avg total
88.8Scored
90.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)88.286.2174.4+2.055%
Season at home (10)89.392.7182.0-3.420%
Season away (10)87.179.7166.8+7.490%
Last 10 (10)88.890.6179.4-1.840%
Last 5 (5)84.489.8174.2-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)80.390.5170.8-10.223%
vs Similar ◀ (9)86.489.4175.9-3.033%
vs Weaker (8)90.084.5174.5+5.575%
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: +3.8+3.8Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: -0.3-0.3
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: +3.8+3.8Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: -0.3-0.3
Melbourne TigersCasey Cavaliers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#17
L
46-50
46
50
-4
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H15/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A20/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H28/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H29/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A05/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A08/07
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H11/07
NBL1 South
85.7Avg total
42.5Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.342.284.5+0.143%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.042.485.4+0.633%-
Last 30 away (15)41.641.983.5-0.353%-
Last 10 (10)42.543.285.7-0.740%-
Last 5 (5)40.043.283.2-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)43.843.887.6+0.040%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)40.142.482.6-2.336%-
vs Weaker (11)44.441.185.5+3.355%-
This opponent (Casey Cavaliers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Casey CavaliersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H24/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A31/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
54-51
54
51
+3
H06/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
53-40
53
40
+13
H14/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
46-58
46
58
-12
H21/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
49-34
49
34
+15
A28/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H29/06
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A05/07
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H11/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
43-35
43
35
+8
A12/07
NBL1 South
88.1Avg total
44.4Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.944.188.0-0.243%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.845.988.7-3.225%-
Last 30 away (14)45.241.987.1+3.364%-
Last 10 (10)44.443.788.1+0.750%-
Last 5 (5)44.240.284.4+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)41.847.389.2-5.531%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.342.085.3+1.322%-
vs Weaker (8)47.941.189.0+6.888%-
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Melbourne Tigers wins
1
Casey Cavaliers wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/07/25HDiamond Valley87-77
08/07/25ARingwood82-93
05/07/25ASandringham Sabres71-92
29/06/25HBendigo Braves85-66
28/06/25HNW Tasmania98-83
20/06/25AMt Gambier95-84
15/06/25HHobart Chargers79-91
14/06/25AKnox85-78
06/06/25HKeilor Thunder101-74
31/05/25AGeelong86-89
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/07/25AGeelong77-71
11/07/25HKilsyth87-109
05/07/25ADandenong86-99
29/06/25HEltham83-93
28/06/25ABendigo Braves89-77
21/06/25HRingwood93-109
14/06/25HNW Tasmania102-82
06/06/25HSandringham Sabres100-103
31/05/25AKeilor Thunder90-80
24/05/25HMelbourne Tigers81-83 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne Tigers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW60%
HomeWLWWW60%
AwayLWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %60%60%60%
Points / game86.586.186.8
Allowed / game80.779.282.2
Point differential+5.8+6.9+4.6
Avg total167.2165.3169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%50%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (1)33% (3)
Overtime %5%0%10%
Casey Cavaliers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW55%
HomeLWLLL20%
AwayWWWLW90%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %55%20%90%
Points / game88.289.387.1
Allowed / game86.292.779.7
Point differential+2.0-3.4+7.4
Avg total174.4182.0166.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%10%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)0% (5)100% (2)
Overtime %10%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox2117481%91.783.9+7.9
2 Mt Gambier2115671%96.183.1+13.0
3 Sandringham Sabres2013765%93.590.0+3.5
4 Kilsyth2113862%89.085.6+3.4
5 Melbourne Tigers2012860%86.580.7+5.8
6 Eltham2012860%89.586.2+3.3
7 Ballarat2012860%88.089.5-1.6
8 Hobart Chargers2112957%88.786.5+2.1
9 Casey Cavaliers2011955%88.286.2+2.0
10 Ringwood22111150%95.190.8+4.3
11 Frankston2091145%93.190.2+2.9
12 Nunawading2091145%86.587.2-0.8
13 Waverley2091145%93.396.3-3.0
14 Bendigo Braves2181338%82.094.0-12.0
15 Geelong2071335%83.088.8-5.8
16 Keilor Thunder2071335%82.588.4-6.0
17 Dandenong2171433%90.195.1-5.0
18 NW Tasmania2051525%85.791.5-5.8
19 Diamond Valley2051525%84.593.8-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne Tigers2817223097
Casey Cavaliers1920272894
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