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Melbourne Tigers vs Diamond Valley Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 11 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 10:30
Final 87-77
25-10 22-23 22-26 18-18
Position#4
Record11-8
FormWWWLL
Points / game86.4
Allowed / game80.9
vs
Position#19
Record5-13
FormLLLWL
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game94.6
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Melbourne Tigers v Diamond Valley
11 Jul 2025
MELB87
DIAM77
21 May 2023
MELB75
DIAM89
03 Jul 2022
MELB83
DIAM84
11 May 2019
MELB81
DIAM72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne Tigers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Diamond Valley winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne TigersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
83-81 OT
83
81
+2
A24/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
101-74
101
74
+27
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
85-78
85
78
+7
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
79-91
79
91
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
W
95-84
95
84
+11
A20/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H28/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
85-66
85
66
+19
H29/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
71-92
71
92
-21
A05/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
82-93
82
93
-11
A08/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-18
25-14
13-15
16-22
30-26
16-24
20-24
20-15
24-22
29-17
21-16
27-19
22-16
17-19
24-22
22-21
31-22
15-27
22-22
11-20
16-24
25-19
40-19
14-22
25-20
20-20
21-16
32-27
17-26
17-16
20-13
31-11
17-22
16-27
18-22
20-21
26-19
15-33
25-15
16-26
169.6Avg total
86.5Scored
83.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)86.480.9167.3+5.558%
Season at home (9)86.079.4165.4+6.656%
Season away (10)86.882.2169.0+4.660%
Last 10 (10)86.583.1169.6+3.460%
Last 5 (5)86.283.6169.8+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)86.082.0168.0+4.067%
vs Similar (14)75.683.1158.8-7.521%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)89.776.1165.8+13.690%
This opponent (Diamond Valley) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Diamond ValleyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
L
94-104
94
104
-10
A11/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
88-104
88
104
-16
H17/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
98-68
98
68
+30
A24/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
81-92
81
92
-11
A31/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
L
80-96
80
96
-16
A09/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
67-102
67
102
-35
H14/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
94-110
94
110
-16
A21/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
76-96
76
96
-20
A27/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
85-77
85
77
+8
H29/06
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
L
99-108
99
108
-9
A05/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
31-20
17-34
17-30
22-26
19-27
23-22
24-29
22-26
23-10
23-14
30-18
26-24
18-22
15-19
22-27
15-38
32-7
19-25
14-26
14-24
25-25
12-27
16-26
19-35
27-24
29-27
19-24
20-24
21-23
16-26
19-23
26-15
18-19
24-23
17-20
24-31
16-29
24-15
35-33
181.9Avg total
86.2Scored
95.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)85.394.6179.9-9.328%
Season at home (8)79.592.6172.1-13.125%
Season away (10)89.996.2186.1-6.330%
Last 10 (10)86.295.7181.9-9.520%
Last 5 (5)84.298.6182.8-14.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)84.995.2180.1-10.325%
vs Similar (6)89.586.0175.5+3.550%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -4.6-4.6Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: +4.0+4.0Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -4.3-4.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -4.6-4.6Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: +4.0+4.0Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -4.3-4.3
Melbourne TigersDiamond Valley
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
46-50
46
50
-4
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H15/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A20/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H28/06
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H29/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A05/07
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A08/07
NBL1 South
84.9Avg total
41.8Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.042.384.4-0.343%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.743.185.8-0.429%-
Last 30 away (16)41.441.783.1-0.256%-
Last 10 (10)41.843.184.9-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)38.845.284.0-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)43.042.885.8+0.250%-
vs Similar (14)40.142.482.6-2.336%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)44.141.986.0+2.250%-
This opponent (Diamond Valley) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Diamond ValleyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
W
60-40
60
40
+20
A11/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H17/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A24/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A31/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A09/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
39-49
39
49
-10
H14/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
46-59
46
59
-13
A21/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A27/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H29/06
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
L
40-60
40
60
-20
A05/07
NBL1 South
91.6Avg total
44.7Scored
46.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.846.688.4-4.833%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.644.484.0-4.929%-
Last 30 away (16)43.848.592.2-4.838%-
Last 10 (10)44.746.991.6-2.240%-
Last 5 (5)42.049.891.8-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)41.547.388.8-5.829%-
vs Similar (6)43.043.786.7-0.750%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Melbourne Tigers wins
3
Diamond Valley wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/07/25ARingwood82-93
05/07/25ASandringham Sabres71-92
29/06/25HBendigo Braves85-66
28/06/25HNW Tasmania98-83
20/06/25AMt Gambier95-84
15/06/25HHobart Chargers79-91
14/06/25AKnox85-78
06/06/25HKeilor Thunder101-74
31/05/25AGeelong86-89
24/05/25ACasey Cavaliers83-81 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/07/25AKeilor Thunder99-108
29/06/25HNW Tasmania85-77
27/06/25AMt Gambier76-96
21/06/25AGeelong94-110
14/06/25HSandringham Sabres67-102
09/06/25AWaverley80-96
31/05/25AEltham81-92
24/05/25ABendigo Braves98-68
17/05/25HKilsyth88-104
11/05/25ABallarat94-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne Tigers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL58%
HomeLWLWW56%
AwayLWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %58%56%60%
Points / game86.486.086.8
Allowed / game80.979.482.2
Point differential+5.5+6.6+4.6
Avg total167.3165.4169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%44%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (1)33% (3)
Overtime %5%0%10%
Diamond Valley
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL28%
HomeWLLLW25%
AwayLLLLL30%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %28%25%30%
Points / game85.379.589.9
Allowed / game94.692.696.2
Point differential-9.3-13.1-6.3
Avg total179.9172.1186.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%0%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %11%12%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1915479%90.882.9+7.9
2 Mt Gambier1913668%96.784.6+12.1
3 Sandringham Sabres1811761%91.288.8+2.4
4 Melbourne Tigers1911858%86.480.9+5.5
5 Kilsyth1911858%87.185.2+1.9
6 Casey Cavaliers1810856%88.985.8+3.1
7 Hobart Chargers1810856%86.984.5+2.4
8 Eltham1810856%87.686.6+0.9
9 Ballarat1810856%88.291.6-3.4
10 Ringwood2011955%94.889.3+5.5
11 Frankston189950%91.988.2+3.7
12 Nunawading1991047%86.587.0-0.5
13 Waverley1991047%92.994.6-1.7
14 Bendigo Braves2081240%83.694.2-10.7
15 Geelong1871139%83.788.5-4.8
16 Keilor Thunder1871139%83.288.7-5.4
17 NW Tasmania1851328%85.689.7-4.1
18 Dandenong1851328%89.796.0-6.3
19 Diamond Valley1851328%85.394.6-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne Tigers2522221887
Diamond Valley1023261877
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