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Mt Gambier vs Melbourne Tigers Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 20 Jun 2025
Tip-off: 10:30
Final 84-95
24-16 19-25 19-40 22-14
Position#2
Record10-5
FormWWLWL
Points / game97.5
Allowed / game85.7
vs
Position#4
Record8-6
FormWLWWL
Points / game86.5
Allowed / game79.9
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Mt Gambier v Melbourne Tigers
20 Jun 2025
MT G84
MELB95
06 Jul 2024
MT G86
MELB91
28 May 2022
MT G88
MELB56
01 Jul 2016
MT G106
MELB67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mt Gambier winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne Tigers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mt GambierAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Waverley
#13
W
105-73
105
73
+32
H25/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
88-118
88
118
-30
A03/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
100-115
100
115
-15
A04/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
93-91
93
91
+2
A10/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
94-88
94
88
+6
H18/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
116-69
116
69
+47
A24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
100-70
100
70
+30
A25/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
96-98
96
98
-2
H30/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
W
100-99
100
99
+1
A14/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
105-106 OT
105
106
-1
A15/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-16
30-16
27-23
31-18
20-34
30-27
9-26
29-31
25-34
27-27
26-25
22-29
23-23
28-22
30-21
12-25
37-25
16-31
17-18
24-14
42-11
31-18
20-19
23-21
27-19
31-12
19-24
23-15
35-24
16-27
27-20
18-27
29-25
21-17
33-32
17-25
20-20
20-26
27-30
22-13
192.4Avg total
99.7Scored
92.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)97.585.7183.3+11.867%
Season at home (6)92.280.7172.8+11.567%
Season away (9)101.189.1190.2+12.067%
Last 10 (10)99.792.7192.4+7.060%
Last 5 (5)103.488.4191.8+15.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)84.283.8168.0+0.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)94.882.2177.0+12.672%
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne TigersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nunawading
#11
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H24/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
85-87
85
87
-2
A04/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
103-78
103
78
+25
A10/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
69-89
69
89
-20
H11/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
100-78
100
78
+22
A17/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
83-81 OT
83
81
+2
A24/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
101-74
101
74
+27
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
85-78
85
78
+7
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
79-91
79
91
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-23
29-27
14-7
22-20
17-22
25-19
18-21
25-25
24-24
22-16
29-12
28-26
19-30
11-21
16-24
23-14
35-18
23-23
24-23
18-14
15-18
25-14
13-15
16-22
30-26
16-24
20-24
20-15
24-22
29-17
21-16
27-19
22-16
17-19
24-22
22-21
31-22
15-27
22-22
11-20
168.9Avg total
86.7Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)86.579.9166.4+6.657%
Season at home (7)84.480.9165.3+3.643%
Season away (7)88.679.0167.6+9.671%
Last 10 (10)86.782.2168.9+4.550%
Last 5 (5)86.882.6169.4+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)80.481.4161.9-1.056%
vs Similar (13)76.281.0157.2-4.831%
vs Weaker (8)89.276.5165.8+12.888%
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.6+1.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.6+1.6
Mt GambierMelbourne Tigers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Waverley
#13
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H25/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A03/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
52-61
52
61
-9
A04/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H18/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
73-29
73
29
+44
A24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
58-31
58
31
+27
A25/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
D
51-51
51
51
+0
H30/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
W
50-42
50
42
+8
A14/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A15/06
NBL1 South
97.9Avg total
52.5Scored
45.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.840.389.0+8.567%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.441.486.7+4.050%-
Last 30 away (16)51.839.391.1+12.481%-
Last 10 (10)52.545.497.9+7.150%-
Last 5 (5)54.439.894.2+14.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)40.638.679.2+2.040%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)50.440.691.0+9.872%-
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nunawading
#11
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H24/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A04/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
30-51
30
51
-21
H11/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
58-41
58
41
+17
A17/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A24/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
46-50
46
50
-4
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H06/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A14/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H15/06
NBL1 South
86.8Avg total
44.0Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.541.083.5+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.142.985.9+0.229%-
Last 30 away (16)41.939.481.4+2.569%-
Last 10 (10)44.042.886.8+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)44.841.085.8+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)41.740.682.2+1.156%-
vs Similar (13)41.340.782.0+0.646%-
vs Weaker (8)45.242.187.4+3.150%-
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Mt Gambier wins
3
Melbourne Tigers wins
Mt Gambierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/06/25AKnox105-106 OT
14/06/25AKilsyth100-99
30/05/25HDandenong96-98
25/05/25ABendigo Braves100-70
24/05/25ABallarat116-69
18/05/25HGeelong94-88
10/05/25ACasey Cavaliers93-91
04/05/25AFrankston100-115
03/05/25ARingwood88-118
25/04/25HWaverley105-73
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/06/25HHobart Chargers79-91
14/06/25AKnox85-78
06/06/25HKeilor Thunder101-74
31/05/25AGeelong86-89
24/05/25ACasey Cavaliers83-81 OT
17/05/25ABendigo Braves100-78
11/05/25HFrankston69-89
10/05/25ABallarat103-78
04/05/25AEltham85-87
24/04/25HNunawading76-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mt Gambier
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL67%
HomeWWWWL67%
AwayWWWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1569
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game97.592.2101.1
Allowed / game85.780.789.1
Point differential+11.8+11.5+12.0
Avg total183.3172.8190.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%33%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)0% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %7%0%11%
Melbourne Tigers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL57%
HomeWLLWL43%
AwayWWWLW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %57%43%71%
Points / game86.584.488.6
Allowed / game79.980.979.0
Point differential+6.6+3.6+9.6
Avg total166.4165.3167.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%29%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (1)33% (3)
Overtime %7%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1614288%92.880.8+12.0
2 Mt Gambier1510567%97.585.7+11.8
3 Casey Cavaliers149564%89.283.3+5.9
4 Hobart Chargers159660%87.083.1+3.9
5 Melbourne Tigers148657%86.579.9+6.6
6 Ballarat148657%87.192.9-5.7
7 Frankston158753%92.187.7+4.5
8 Kilsyth158753%86.685.9+0.7
9 Sandringham Sabres147750%89.389.8-0.5
10 Eltham147750%86.186.9-0.8
11 Nunawading147750%85.988.4-2.5
12 Bendigo Braves168850%87.694.2-6.6
13 Ringwood157847%95.089.7+5.3
14 Waverley157847%92.695.6-3.0
15 Geelong145936%81.988.6-6.7
16 Keilor Thunder145936%80.789.5-8.8
17 NW Tasmania1441029%86.488.4-2.0
18 Diamond Valley1441029%84.493.7-9.4
19 Dandenong1431121%87.894.9-7.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Mt Gambier2419192284
Melbourne Tigers1625401495
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