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Miami (FL) vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 75-66
43-40 32-26
Position#38
Record18-5
FormLWWLW
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game70.0
vs
Position#45
Record19-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.6
Allowed / game70.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Miami (FL) v North Carolina
10 Feb 2026
MIAM75
NORT66
10 Feb 2024
MIAM72
NORT75
18 Jan 2022
MIAM85
NORT57
05 Jan 2021
MIAM65
NORT67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami (FL) winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami (FL)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
W
76-69
76
69
+7
H31/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A08/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
91-81
91
81
+10
H10/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
81-69
81
69
+12
A14/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
63-65
63
65
-2
H21/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
85-76
85
76
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
79-70
79
70
+9
H29/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
85-86
85
86
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
74-68
74
68
+6
A07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
33-43
43-26
39-38
42-39
47-33
44-48
39-39
42-30
26-35
33-34
37-38
26-27
41-36
44-40
35-40
44-30
44-45
41-41
34-33
40-35
150.4Avg total
77.4Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)84.270.0154.2+14.278%
Season at home (15)89.169.2158.3+19.980%
Season away (8)75.171.5146.6+3.675%
Last 10 (10)77.473.0150.4+4.470%
Last 5 (5)77.273.0150.2+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)68.382.6150.9-14.314%
vs Similar ◀ (3)63.074.0137.0-11.00%
vs Weaker (20)87.469.3156.8+18.190%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
83-97
83
97
-14
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
90-95
90
95
-5
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
91-69
91
69
+22
H22/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
85-80
85
80
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
91-75
91
75
+16
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
87-77
87
77
+10
H03/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
71-68
71
68
+3
H07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
40-34
39-32
39-39
44-58
49-38
38-46
47-45
43-50
37-54
41-30
42-33
49-36
34-43
51-37
52-37
39-38
46-32
41-45
29-41
42-27
163.7Avg total
84.2Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)82.670.5153.1+12.183%
Season at home (15)85.165.5150.6+19.7100%
Season away (8)77.979.9157.8-2.050%
Last 10 (10)84.279.5163.7+4.770%
Last 5 (5)85.073.8158.8+11.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)70.374.7145.0-4.333%
vs Similar ◀ (14)77.870.6148.4+7.271%
vs Weaker (13)87.267.5154.8+19.792%
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: +2.8+2.8
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: +2.8+2.8
Miami (FL)North Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Miami (FL)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pittsburgh
#282
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H31/12
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A08/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H10/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A14/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
26-35
26
35
-9
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H21/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H29/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A07/02
NCAA
75.5Avg total
37.5Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.836.275.0+2.647%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.737.078.7+4.750%-
Last 30 away (12)34.435.169.5-0.742%-
Last 10 (10)37.538.075.5-0.540%-
Last 5 (5)38.238.476.6-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)30.640.370.9-9.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)32.334.066.3-1.733%-
vs Weaker (20)42.635.177.8+7.565%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H22/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A24/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
52-37
52
37
+15
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H03/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H07/02
NCAA
81.1Avg total
41.5Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.134.673.7+4.567%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.932.573.4+8.482%-
Last 30 away (13)36.837.374.1-0.546%-
Last 10 (10)41.539.681.1+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)40.637.277.8+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.743.074.7-11.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)36.434.470.7+2.050%-
vs Weaker (13)43.832.876.6+10.9100%-
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami (FL) wins
5
North Carolina wins
Miami (FL)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26ABoston College74-68
31/01/26HCalifornia85-86
29/01/26HStanford79-70
24/01/26ASyracuse85-76
21/01/26HFlorida State63-65
17/01/26AClemson59-69
14/01/26ANotre Dame81-69
10/01/26HGeorgia Tech91-81
08/01/26AWake Forest81-77
31/12/25HPittsburgh76-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26HDuke71-68
03/02/26HSyracuse87-77
31/01/26AGeorgia Tech91-75
24/01/26AVirginia85-80
22/01/26HNotre Dame91-69
17/01/26ACalifornia78-84
15/01/26AStanford90-95
10/01/26HWake Forest87-84
03/01/26ASMU Mustangs83-97
31/12/25HFlorida State79-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami (FL)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW78%
HomeWWLWL80%
AwayWWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games23158
Win %78%80%75%
Points / game84.289.175.1
Allowed / game70.069.271.5
Point differential+14.2+19.9+3.6
Avg total154.2158.3146.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%67%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games23158
Win %83%100%50%
Points / game82.685.177.9
Allowed / game70.565.579.9
Point differential+12.1+19.7-2.0
Avg total153.1150.6157.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+61%87%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won83% (6)100% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2321291%83.463.9+19.5
2 Virginia2420483%81.669.5+12.1
3 Clemson2420483%76.064.1+11.9
4 North Carolina2319483%82.670.5+12.1
5 Miami (FL)2318578%84.270.0+14.2
6 Louisville2418675%87.170.9+16.2
7 NC State2518772%85.374.3+11.0
8 California2417771%77.871.5+6.3
9 SMU Mustangs2316770%86.477.3+9.1
10 Virginia Tech2416867%79.774.4+5.3
11 Stanford2415962%76.273.1+3.1
12 Syracuse24131154%75.170.8+4.4
13 Wake Forest23111248%80.078.0+2.0
14 Florida State23111248%80.879.6+1.3
15 Notre Dame24111346%73.872.8+1.0
16 Georgia Tech24111346%74.875.5-0.7
17 Boston College2391439%67.368.6-1.3
18 Pittsburgh2491538%70.871.5-0.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Miami (FL)433275
North Carolina402666
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