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North Carolina vs Wake Forest Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 87-84
49-38 38-46
Position#45
Record13-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game65.9
North Carolina 🏆
USA
vs
Wake Forest
USA
Position#190
Record10-6
FormWLLWL
Points / game81.6
Allowed / game74.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · North Carolina v Wake Forest
10 Jan 2026
NORT87
WAKE84
22 Jan 2024
NORT85
WAKE64
04 Jan 2023
NORT88
WAKE79
20 Jan 2021
NORT80
WAKE73
03 Mar 2020
NORT93
WAKE83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Wake Forest winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
85-70
85
70
+15
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
58-74
58
74
-16
A27/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
67-64
67
64
+3
A03/12
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
81-61
81
61
+20
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
77-58
77
58
+19
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
99-51
99
51
+48
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
83-97
83
97
-14
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
35-33
50-37
28-33
30-41
31-31
36-33
44-39
37-22
37-28
43-34
38-30
39-28
34-31
37-39
49-26
50-25
40-34
39-32
39-39
44-58
145.3Avg total
78.0Scored
67.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)81.365.9147.3+15.487%
Season at home (11)85.562.2147.7+23.4100%
Season away (4)69.876.2146.0-6.550%
Last 10 (10)78.067.3145.3+10.780%
Last 5 (5)81.868.4150.2+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.882.0150.8-13.20%
vs Similar (13)76.468.5144.8+7.977%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)87.865.9153.8+21.9100%
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Wake ForestUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
W
99-51
99
51
+48
H26/11
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
86-73
86
73
+13
H28/11
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
68-86
68
86
-18
H03/12
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
75-66
75
66
+9
A06/12
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
111-73
111
73
+38
H14/12
NCAA
Longwood
#202
W
71-68
71
68
+3
H18/12
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
67-98
67
98
-31
H21/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
57-70
57
70
-13
A31/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H03/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H08/01
NCAA
1H
2H
50-23
49-28
45-44
41-29
35-37
33-49
34-34
41-32
57-39
54-34
30-34
41-34
37-54
30-44
32-36
25-34
36-32
45-46
38-39
39-42
153.6Avg total
79.2Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)81.674.7156.3+6.962%
Season at home (11)85.374.7160.0+10.573%
Season away (5)73.674.6148.2-1.040%
Last 10 (10)79.274.4153.6+4.860%
Last 5 (5)70.679.0149.6-8.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)68.979.1148.0-10.211%
vs Similar (19)78.769.6148.3+9.179%
vs Weaker (2)80.578.0158.5+2.550%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.1+5.11st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: +2.6+2.6
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.1+5.11st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: +2.6+2.6
North CarolinaWake Forest
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H25/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A27/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A03/12
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H07/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H13/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H17/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A20/12
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A03/01
NCAA
69.9Avg total
37.5Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.933.772.6+5.270%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.831.273.0+10.588%-
Last 30 away (13)35.236.872.0-1.746%-
Last 10 (10)37.532.469.9+5.170%-
Last 5 (5)40.032.072.0+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.046.077.0-15.00%-
vs Similar (13)36.432.068.4+4.462%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)43.831.575.4+12.3100%-
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Wake ForestLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
W
50-23
50
23
+27
H26/11
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H28/11
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H03/12
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A06/12
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
57-39
57
39
+18
H14/12
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H18/12
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
37-54
37
54
-17
H21/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A31/12
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H03/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H08/01
NCAA
76.6Avg total
39.4Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.235.370.5-0.237%-
Last 30 at home (19)37.334.271.5+3.147%-
Last 30 away (11)31.537.368.7-5.818%-
Last 10 (10)39.437.276.6+2.240%-
Last 5 (5)34.639.073.6-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)30.840.671.3-9.80%-
vs Similar (19)36.831.968.8+4.953%-
vs Weaker (2)39.044.083.0-5.050%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
North Carolina wins
4
Wake Forest wins
DateGameScore
13/03/25Wake Forest v North Carolina59-68
22/01/25Wake Forest v North Carolina67-66
23/01/24North Carolina v Wake Forest85-64
08/02/23Wake Forest v North Carolina92-85
05/01/23North Carolina v Wake Forest88-79
23/01/22Wake Forest v North Carolina98-76
21/01/21North Carolina v Wake Forest80-73
04/03/20North Carolina v Wake Forest93-83
12/02/20Wake Forest v North Carolina74-57
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26ASMU Mustangs83-97
31/12/25HFlorida State79-66
23/12/25HEast Carolina99-51
20/12/25AOhio State71-70
17/12/25HEast Tennessee St77-58
13/12/25HUSC Upstate80-62
07/12/25HGeorgetown81-61
03/12/25AKentucky67-64
27/11/25AMichigan State58-74
25/11/25HSt. Bonaventure85-70
Wake Forestlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26HMiami (FL)77-81
03/01/26HVirginia Tech81-78
31/12/25ANC State57-70
21/12/25HVanderbilt67-98
18/12/25HLongwood71-68
14/12/25HQueens Royals111-73
06/12/25AWest Virginia75-66
03/12/25HOklahoma68-86
28/11/25HNortheastern86-73
26/11/25HCampbell99-51

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL87%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15114
Win %87%100%50%
Points / game81.385.569.8
Allowed / game65.962.276.2
Point differential+15.4+23.4-6.5
Avg total147.3147.7146.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+73%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Wake Forest
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL62%
HomeWWLWL73%
AwayLLWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16115
Win %62%73%40%
Points / game81.685.373.6
Allowed / game74.774.774.6
Point differential+6.9+10.5-1.0
Avg total156.3160.0148.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%55%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %6%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1615194%86.866.6+20.2
2 Miami (FL)1614288%88.269.2+19.0
3 North Carolina1513287%81.365.9+15.4
4 Virginia1714382%83.269.1+14.1
5 Clemson1613381%77.965.9+12.0
6 California1713476%79.870.0+9.8
7 Virginia Tech1713476%82.373.8+8.5
8 Stanford1713476%76.970.6+6.3
9 Louisville1612475%88.369.6+18.7
10 SMU Mustangs1612475%89.177.1+12.1
11 NC State1712571%86.571.2+15.3
12 Syracuse1611569%74.865.7+9.1
13 Notre Dame1510567%74.366.7+7.6
14 Wake Forest1610662%81.674.7+6.9
15 Georgia Tech1710759%76.072.1+3.9
16 Pittsburgh167944%73.269.6+3.6
17 Florida State167944%82.981.3+1.6
18 Boston College167944%69.067.9+1.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina493887
Wake Forest384684
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