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Michigan State vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 60-66
34-31 26-35
Position#29
Record8-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game60.4
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#8
Record9-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game59.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Michigan State v Duke
06 Dec 2025
MICH60
DUKE66
14 Nov 2023
MICH65
DUKE74
03 Dec 2019
MICH75
DUKE87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#73
W
73-70
73
70
+3
H28/03
NCAA
Auburn
#12
L
64-70
64
70
-6
A30/03
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H09/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
79-60
79
60
+19
H13/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
83-66
83
66
+17
A18/11
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
84-56
84
56
+28
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
89-56
89
56
+33
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-52
71
52
+19
H03/12
NCAA
1H
2H
31-33
42-37
24-33
40-37
37-34
43-35
36-39
33-27
46-23
33-37
44-27
39-39
41-25
43-31
47-24
42-32
33-28
41-30
35-21
36-31
138.9Avg total
76.6Scored
62.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)78.660.4139.0+18.2100%
Season at home (6)76.260.2136.3+16.0100%
Season away (2)86.061.0147.0+25.0100%
Last 10 (10)76.662.3138.9+14.390%
Last 5 (5)80.257.6137.8+22.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (13)71.864.4136.2+7.577%
vs Weaker (17)79.267.2146.4+12.088%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston
#9
L
67-70
67
70
-3
H06/04
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
75-60
75
60
+15
H05/11
NCAA
Western Carolina
#221
W
95-54
95
54
+41
H08/11
NCAA
Army
#318
W
114-59
114
59
+55
A12/11
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
100-62
100
62
+38
H15/11
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H19/11
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
100-42
100
42
+58
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
93-56
93
56
+37
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H03/12
NCAA
1H
2H
34-28
33-42
32-33
43-27
45-21
50-33
49-30
65-29
51-32
49-30
41-33
37-33
47-19
53-23
52-18
41-38
41-35
39-36
36-24
31-42
147.5Avg total
86.9Scored
60.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)89.159.6148.7+29.6100%
Season at home (7)86.958.0144.9+28.9100%
Season away (2)97.065.0162.0+32.0100%
Last 10 (10)86.960.6147.5+26.390%
Last 5 (5)83.660.2143.8+23.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)67.066.0133.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)86.863.7150.5+23.193%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-19-10+0+10+191st half1st half: +8.7+8.71st half: +15.5+15.52nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: +10.8+10.8
-19-10+0+10+191st half1st half: +8.7+8.71st half: +15.5+15.52nd half2nd half: +5.6+5.62nd half: +10.8+10.8
Michigan StateDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss
#73
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H28/03
NCAA
Auburn
#12
L
24-33
24
33
-9
A30/03
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H09/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
46-23
46
23
+23
H13/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A18/11
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
47-24
47
24
+23
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
35-21
35
21
+14
H03/12
NCAA
66.1Avg total
37.4Scored
28.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.831.667.3+4.250%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.531.367.8+5.358%-
Last 30 away (11)34.532.166.5+2.436%-
Last 10 (10)37.428.766.1+8.770%-
Last 5 (5)40.025.065.0+15.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (13)31.532.163.6-0.531%-
vs Weaker (17)39.031.270.2+7.865%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston
#9
W
34-28
34
28
+6
H06/04
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H05/11
NCAA
Western Carolina
#221
W
45-21
45
21
+24
H08/11
NCAA
Army
#318
W
49-30
49
30
+19
A12/11
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
51-32
51
32
+19
H15/11
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H19/11
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
52-18
52
18
+34
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H03/12
NCAA
70.1Avg total
42.8Scored
27.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.730.072.7+12.787%-
Last 30 at home (21)42.429.271.7+13.281%-
Last 30 away (9)43.331.775.0+11.7100%-
Last 10 (10)42.827.370.1+15.590%-
Last 5 (5)43.425.869.2+17.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)36.024.060.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)42.930.273.1+12.886%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Michigan State wins
3
Duke wins
DateGameScore
15/11/23Michigan State v Duke65-74
20/03/22Duke v Michigan State85-76
02/12/20Duke v Michigan State69-75
04/12/19Michigan State v Duke75-87
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/12/25HIowa71-52
27/11/25HNorth Carolina74-58
25/11/25AEast Carolina89-56
21/11/25HDetroit84-56
18/11/25AKentucky83-66
13/11/25HSan Jose State79-60
09/11/25HArkansas69-66
04/11/25HColgate80-69
30/03/25AAuburn64-70
28/03/25HOle Miss73-70
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/12/25HFlorida67-66
28/11/25AArkansas80-71
23/11/25HHoward93-56
22/11/25HNiagara100-42
19/11/25HKansas78-66
15/11/25HIndiana State100-62
12/11/25AArmy114-59
08/11/25HWestern Carolina95-54
05/11/25HTexas75-60
06/04/25HHouston67-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games862
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game78.676.286.0
Allowed / game60.460.261.0
Point differential+18.2+16.0+25.0
Avg total139.0136.3147.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+88%83%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games972
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.186.997.0
Allowed / game59.658.065.0
Point differential+29.6+28.9+32.0
Avg total148.7144.9162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+78%86%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan770100%93.767.6+26.1
2 Purdue880100%88.667.6+21.0
3 Michigan State880100%78.660.4+18.2
4 Nebraska880100%84.870.1+14.6
5 USC880100%90.677.5+13.1
6 Penn State98189%83.170.0+13.1
7 Indiana87188%86.463.8+22.6
8 Iowa87188%79.562.4+17.1
9 Ohio State76186%88.767.3+21.4
10 Illinois86275%90.470.2+20.1
11 Wisconsin86275%86.973.5+13.4
12 UCLA86275%77.665.2+12.4
13 Maryland96367%78.678.0+0.6
14 Northwestern85362%81.071.5+9.5
15 Washington85362%82.273.6+8.6
16 Minnesota95456%73.467.9+5.6
17 Rutgers95456%71.069.1+1.9
18 Oregon84450%74.175.6-1.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke990100%89.159.6+29.6
2 SMU Mustangs98189%89.475.6+13.9
3 Louisville87188%94.666.2+28.4
4 North Carolina87188%81.265.5+15.8
5 California87188%83.869.9+13.9
6 Stanford87188%82.971.9+11.0
7 Miami (FL)97278%85.365.4+19.9
8 Clemson97278%85.166.7+18.4
9 Virginia97278%83.972.0+11.9
10 Virginia Tech97278%83.074.9+8.1
11 Notre Dame107370%76.669.4+7.2
12 Wake Forest96367%85.273.4+11.8
13 NC State85362%91.077.4+13.6
14 Syracuse85362%73.264.6+8.6
15 Florida State85362%86.478.0+8.4
16 Pittsburgh95456%71.768.1+3.6
17 Georgia Tech95456%71.769.4+2.2
18 Boston College94544%70.367.0+3.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan State342660
Duke313566
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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