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Michigan vs Uconn Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 82-68
Projected total 150.4
Final 77-85
30-43 47-42
Position#229
Record1-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game68.0
Michigan
USA
Vs
89%
■ MICH 89%■ UCON 11%
Pythia win probability
Uconn 🏆
USA
Position#77
Record1-0
FormWWWLW
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game46.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Michigan v Uconn
06 Nov 2026
MICH77
UCON85
06 Apr 2026
MICH69
UCON63
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Michigan hosts Uconn on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Michigan the clear favourite, rating them 89% to win largely because of their 1-0 season record, 84.0 points per game and 68.0 allowed, and their 5-0 run in the last five games, including a 84-68 home victory over Oakland on 2 November and a 69-63 win over Uconn on 6 April. Uconn, also 1-0 this season with 86.0 points per game and 46.0 allowed, has a 4-1 record in the last five games, highlighted by an 86-46 home win over Gardner Webb on 2 November and a 71-62 home win over Illinois on 4 April, but lost 63-69 to Michigan on 6 April. Their head-to-head history shows Michigan 1-0, with the last meeting ending 69-63 in Michigan's favour. Pythia projects a 82-68 score, a total of 150.4, and gives Michigan a 74% chance to cover the -7.0 line while the over on 146.0 carries a 61% probability; the game has a 2% chance of overtime. The next contest will see Michigan again proving its early-season dominance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan winLost
88.6%fair 1.13
Best odds3.75
Implied27.0%
Edge+61.6pp
Uconn winWon
11.4%fair 8.74
Best odds1.32
Implied73.0%
Edge-61.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio State
#104
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H13/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
68-65
68
65
+3
H14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
101-80
101
80
+21
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
95-72
95
72
+23
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
90-77
90
77
+13
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
95-62
95
62
+33
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
91-73
91
73
+18
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#345
W
84-68
84
68
+16
H02/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-35
32-32
28-28
40-37
38-38
34-42
50-46
51-34
48-39
47-33
47-49
43-28
48-26
47-36
48-32
43-41
33-29
36-34
47-36
37-32
154.3Avg total
83.6Scored
70.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)84.068.0152.0+16.0100%
Season at home (1)84.068.0152.0+16.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.670.7154.3+12.990%
Last 5 (5)85.868.6154.4+17.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (4)83.270.8154.0+12.575%
vs Weaker (26)84.470.7155.1+13.792%
This opponent (Uconn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UconnUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Xavier
#248
W
93-68
93
68
+25
H12/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
67-51
67
51
+16
H14/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
52-72
52
72
-20
A14/03
NCAA
Furman
#93
W
82-71
82
71
+11
H21/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
73-57
73
57
+16
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H28/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
73-72
73
72
+1
A29/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
71-62
71
62
+9
H04/04
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
63-69
63
69
-6
A07/04
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#428
W
86-46
86
46
+40
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
50-30
43-38
32-21
35-30
27-40
25-32
40-36
42-35
38-33
35-24
35-27
32-36
29-44
44-28
37-29
34-33
29-33
34-36
43-24
43-22
135.8Avg total
72.7Scored
63.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)86.046.0132.0+40.0100%
Season at home (1)86.046.0132.0+40.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.763.1135.8+9.680%
Last 5 (5)72.062.4134.4+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)68.070.5138.5-2.550%
vs Similar (5)66.863.6130.4+3.260%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)78.765.9144.6+12.991%
This opponent (Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 137Actual: Over 137
Over 137
79.8%
Under 137
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 142 · main lineActual: Over 142
Over 142
69.8%
@ 1.91+19.8pp
Under 142
30.2%
@ 1.91-19.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.82
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
58.1%
Under 147
41.9%
@ 1.70
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
Marathon Be
1.70

📊 3. Team Totals

Michigan total 65.5Actual: Michigan over 65.5
Over 65.5
no forecast
@ 1.12
Under 65.5
no forecast
@ 5.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.50
Michigan total 67.5 · main lineActual: Michigan over 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 5.00
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.00
BetVictor
1.85
Michigan total 71.5Actual: Michigan over 71.5
Over 71.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under 71.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.37
Uconn total 71.5Actual: Uconn over 71.5
Over 71.5
37.0%
@ 2.57+0.6pp
Under 71.5
63.0%
@ 1.50-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.40
Uconn total 75.5 · main lineActual: Uconn over 75.5
Over 75.5
23.5%
@ 3.25-15.7pp
Under 75.5
76.5%
@ 1.85+15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.25
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.29
Uconn total 79.5Actual: Uconn over 79.5
Over 79.5
13.5%
Under 79.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Michigan -10.5Actual: Uconn +10.5
MICH -10.5
61.5%
@ 1.50+0.3pp
UCON +10.5
38.5%
@ 2.37-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Betano
1.50
UCON
Betano
2.37
Spread Michigan -7.5 · main lineActual: Uconn +7.5
MICH -7.5
71.4%
@ 1.88+20.5pp
UCON +7.5
28.6%
@ 1.96-20.5pp
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
UCON
Bet365
1.96
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Michigan -4.5Actual: Uconn +4.5
MICH -4.5
80.1%
@ 2.25+39.3pp
UCON +4.5
19.9%
@ 1.55-39.3pp
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Betano
2.25
UCON
Betano
1.55

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: +4.3+4.32nd half2nd half: +6.1+6.12nd half: +5.3+5.3
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: +4.3+4.32nd half2nd half: +6.1+6.12nd half: +5.3+5.3
MichiganUconn
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio State
#104
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H13/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
D
28-28
28
28
+0
H14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H07/04
NCAA
Oakland
#345
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H02/11
NCAA
78.4Avg total
42.6Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67
Last 30 (30)41.834.376.1+7.573%83%
Last 30 at home (19)42.934.977.8+8.179%79%
Last 30 away (11)39.733.373.0+6.564%91%
Last 10 (10)42.635.878.4+6.870%80%
Last 5 (5)44.634.479.0+10.280%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (4)41.834.276.0+7.575%100%
vs Weaker (26)41.834.376.1+7.573%81%
This opponent (Uconn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UconnLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Xavier
#248
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H12/03
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
32-21
32
21
+11
H14/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
27-40
27
40
-13
A14/03
NCAA
Furman
#93
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H28/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A29/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H04/04
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A07/04
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#428
W
43-24
43
24
+19
H03/11
NCAA
67.7Avg total
36.0Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67
Last 30 (30)37.331.769.1+5.673%47%
Last 30 at home (17)39.129.969.0+9.282%41%
Last 30 away (13)35.034.269.2+0.862%54%
Last 10 (10)36.031.767.7+4.370%40%
Last 5 (5)34.631.466.0+3.260%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)29.038.567.5-9.50%50%
vs Similar (5)35.832.268.0+3.660%20%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)38.431.069.4+7.383%52%
This opponent (Michigan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Uconn win
MICH win
no forecast
@ 3.00
UCON win
no forecast
@ 1.43
1st half Spread Michigan -4 · main lineActual: Uconn +4
MICH -4
no forecast
@ 1.92
UCON +4
no forecast
@ 1.92
1st half Over/Under 67 · main lineActual: Over 67
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Michigan 1st half total 36 · main lineActual: Michigan under 36
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Uconn 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: Uconn over 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 2.17
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Michigan -5Actual: Uconn +5
MICH -5
no forecast
@ 1.74
UCON +5
no forecast
@ 2.11
1st half Spread Michigan -3Actual: Uconn +3
MICH -3
no forecast
@ 2.10
UCON +3
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Over/Under 63.5Actual: Over 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.53
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.62
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Michigan -6.5Actual: Uconn +6.5
MICH -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
UCON +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Spread Michigan -1.5Actual: Uconn +1.5
MICH -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
UCON +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Over/Under 61.5Actual: Over 61.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.29
Under
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.29
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Uconn (regulation)
MICH
no forecast
@ 3.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
UCON
no forecast
@ 1.47

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MICH win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
UCON win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MICH leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Michigan +1.589.7%3.50
Betano
3.50		----+63.4ppLost
Michigan win88.6%3.47
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.57
WilliamHill
3.50
1xBet
3.47
Betano
3.45		+61.6ppLost
Michigan (regulation)87.0%3.50
Betano
3.55
Marathon Bet
3.44		---+61.2ppLost
Michigan -1.587.1%2.95
Betano
2.95		----+55.9ppLost
Michigan -2.584.7%2.67
Betano
2.67		----+50.3ppLost
Michigan -3.582.7%2.45
Betano
2.45		----+45.2ppLost
Michigan -579.6%2.40
Pinnacle
2.40		----+39.7ppLost
Michigan -4.580.1%2.25
Betano
2.25		----+39.3ppLost
Michigan -5.577.4%2.18
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.07		---+35.8ppLost
Michigan -676.7%2.19
Pinnacle
2.19		----+33.0ppLost
Michigan -6.574.5%1.99
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.88		-+28.5ppLost
Michigan over 75.574.7%1.91
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80		-+28.3ppWon
Michigan over 7577.1%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86		----+27.4ppWon
Uconn under 7575.7%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+25.7ppLost
Michigan -773.7%1.95
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.91		---+25.2ppLost
Michigan over 7673.8%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86		----+24.1ppWon
Michigan over 76.571.4%1.98
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathon Bet
1.87		--+23.5ppWon
Michigan -7.571.4%1.84
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83		+20.5ppLost
Over 14074.1%1.73
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.72		---+19.8ppWon
Over 14172.0%1.81
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.81		---+19.8ppWon
Over 141.570.5%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.80		+19.3ppWon
Over 140.572.6%1.75
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
Betano
1.70		--+19.2ppWon
Over 139.574.6%1.65
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.62		---+17.9ppWon
Over 138.576.6%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+17.7ppWon
Michigan -870.5%1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.80		---+17.4ppLost
Over 137.578.4%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+16.9ppWon
Over 136.580.2%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+16.3ppWon
Over 135.581.9%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+16.0ppWon
Uconn under 75.576.5%1.57
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.29		---+15.7ppLost
Over 134.583.5%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+15.4ppWon
Overtime: no97.5%1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02		---+6.5pp-
Uconn over 61.574.7%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+3.1ppWon
Uconn under 78.584.3%1.14
1xBet
1.14		----+2.9ppLost
Uconn under 77.581.9%1.17
1xBet
1.17		----+2.6ppLost
Uconn under 74.573.4%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+2.3ppLost
Uconn over 58.583.2%1.14
1xBet
1.14		----+1.8ppWon
Uconn over 62.571.3%1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29		---+1.5ppWon
Uconn under 73.570.1%1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.30		---+1.3ppLost
Uconn under 76.579.3%1.17
1xBet
1.17		-----0.1ppLost
Uconn over 59.580.6%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----0.8ppWon
Uconn over 60.577.7%1.17
1xBet
1.17		-----1.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Michigan wins
0
Uconn wins
DateGameScore
07/04/26Michigan v Uconn69-63
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26HOakland84-68
07/04/26HUconn69-63
05/04/26AArizona91-73
29/03/26HTennessee95-62
27/03/26HAlabama90-77
21/03/26HSt. Louis Billikens95-72
19/03/26HHoward101-80
15/03/26HPurdue72-80
14/03/26HWisconsin68-65
13/03/26HOhio State71-67
Uconnlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HGardner Webb86-46
07/04/26AMichigan63-69
04/04/26HIllinois71-62
29/03/26ADuke73-72
28/03/26HMichigan State67-63
23/03/26HUCLA73-57
21/03/26HFurman82-71
14/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)52-72
14/03/26HGeorgetown67-51
12/03/26HXavier93-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game84.084.0-
Allowed / game68.068.0-
Point differential+16.0+16.0-
Avg total152.0152.0-
Over 142100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Uconn
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game86.086.0-
Allowed / game46.046.0-
Point differential+40.0+40.0-
Avg total132.0132.0-
Over 1420%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illinois220100%116.057.5+58.5
2 Nebraska110100%106.064.0+42.0
3 Minnesota110100%85.050.0+35.0
4 Michigan State220100%93.560.0+33.5
5 USC110100%95.063.0+32.0
6 Maryland110100%96.067.0+29.0
7 Indiana220100%91.563.0+28.5
8 Rutgers110100%81.054.0+27.0
9 Northwestern110100%86.060.0+26.0
10 Oregon220100%92.570.0+22.5
11 Iowa110100%76.054.0+22.0
12 Penn State220100%97.075.0+22.0
13 Michigan110100%84.068.0+16.0
14 Washington110100%90.076.0+14.0
15 UCLA110100%84.075.0+9.0
16 Wisconsin220100%74.066.0+8.0
17 Ohio State21150%86.079.5+6.5
18 Purdue21150%79.077.5+1.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Uconn110100%86.046.0+40.0
2 Butler220100%97.562.5+35.0
3 Marquette110100%78.043.0+35.0
4 Xavier220100%86.552.5+34.0
5 Providence110100%83.056.0+27.0
6 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
7 Creighton220100%79.558.0+21.5
8 Seton Hall220100%66.551.0+15.5
9 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
10 DePaul220100%78.569.0+9.5
11 Villanova21150%83.570.0+13.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan304777
Uconn434285
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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