Middle Tenn. St. will host Southeast Missouri State on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model clearly favouring the home side at 79% because of their 2-1 record, 78.3 points per game and 76.7 allowed, and a perfect 2-0 home record with 95.0 points scored and 70.5 allowed. Southeast Missouri State also sits at 2-1, 81.3 points per game and 74.0 allowed, but their lone road loss and 68.0 points scored on the road dampen confidence. In the last five games each side has won three and lost two, with Middle Tenn. St. beating Evansville 73-68 at home, losing to Kansas 45-89 away, and beating Fisk 117-73 at home, while Southeast Missouri State lost to South Carolina 68-78 away, beat Webster Gorloks 90-65 at home and beat Lipscomb 86-79 at home. The two teams have met once before, with the most recent encounter recorded as a win for Middle Tenn. St. The Pythia projection sets a 79-70 score, a total of 149.4, a home line of -5.5 with a 63% chance of covering, and a 57% chance of the over on the 146.5 line, with a 4% overtime probability. The game will hinge on whether Middle Tenn. St.'s high-scoring home form can sustain against Southeast Missouri State's solid defence.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Middle Tenn. St. winWon
78.6%fair 1.27
Best odds1.45
Implied65.7%
Edge+12.9pp
Southeast Missouri State winLost
21.4%fair 4.67
Best odds2.80
Implied34.3%
Edge-12.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
68.2%
@ 1.50+5.3pp
Under 141.5
31.8%
@ 2.60-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
56.6%
@ 1.93+7.0pp
Under 146.5
43.4%
@ 1.90-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
44.5%
@ 2.55+7.5pp
Under 151.5
55.5%
@ 1.47-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Middle Tenn. St. total 72Actual: Middle Tenn. St. over 72
Over 72
77.2%
Under 72
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middle Tenn. St. total 76 · main lineActual: Middle Tenn. St. over 76
Over 76
63.1%
@ 1.87+13.3pp
Under 76
36.9%
@ 1.85-13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Middle Tenn. St. total 80Actual: Middle Tenn. St. over 80
Over 80
46.7%
Under 80
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southeast Missouri State total 66.5Actual: Southeast Missouri State over 66.5
Over 66.5
63.8%
@ 1.40-0.8pp
Under 66.5
36.2%
@ 2.55+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Southeast Missouri State total 70.5 · main lineActual: Southeast Missouri State over 70.5
Over 70.5
48.4%
@ 1.85-1.6pp
Under 70.5
51.6%
@ 1.85+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Southeast Missouri State total 74.5Actual: Southeast Missouri State over 74.5
Over 74.5
33.4%
@ 2.52-2.6pp
Under 74.5
66.6%
@ 1.42+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Middle Tenn. St. -8.5Actual: Middle Tenn. St. -8.5
MIDD -8.5
51.8%
@ 2.35+12.1pp
SOUT +8.5
48.2%
@ 1.54-12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MIDD
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
SOUT
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
Spread Middle Tenn. St. -5.5 · main lineActual: Middle Tenn. St. -5.5
MIDD -5.5
62.9%
@ 1.91+13.4pp
SOUT +5.5
37.1%
@ 1.90-13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
MIDD
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.85
SOUT
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Middle Tenn. St. -2.5Actual: Middle Tenn. St. -2.5
MIDD -2.5
72.8%
@ 1.57+13.6pp
SOUT +2.5
27.2%
@ 2.27-13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MIDD
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
SOUT
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Middle Tenn. St.Southeast Missouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Southeast Missouri State win
MIDD win
no forecast
@ 1.62
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 2.32
2nd half Spread Middle Tenn. St. -2.5 · main lineActual: Southeast Missouri State +2.5
MIDD -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
SOUT +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Middle Tenn. St. (regulation)
MIDD
no forecast
@ 1.65
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
SOUT
no forecast
@ 2.37
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Middle Tenn. St. (regulation)
76.3%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Marathon Bet
1.45
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. -2
75.5%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. -3
72.0%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. -1
78.1%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. -1.5
76.4%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. -2.5
72.8%
1.56
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 73.5
71.6%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +1
80.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. win
78.6%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Marathon Bet
1.43
WilliamHill
1.40
+12.9pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +1.5
80.5%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +2.5
83.1%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 72.5
74.8%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 71.5
77.9%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. over 70.5
80.7%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +2
82.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +3.5
85.0%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +4.5
87.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +9.5
93.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +14.5
97.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Middle Tenn. St. +19.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
70.4%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Over 138.5
74.5%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Over 139.5
72.5%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Over 140
71.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 139
74.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 121.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State under 75.5
70.0%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Over 126.5
91.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State over 53.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 136.5
78.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State over 55.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Over 131.5
86.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State under 80.5
84.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State over 57.5
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
90.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State over 59.5
85.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State over 63.5
74.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State over 61.5
80.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State over 60.5
82.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State +20.5
84.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
85.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Southeast Missouri State +15.5
72.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Lost
Middle Tenn. St. under 85.5
73.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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