PythiaBasketballBETA
Minnesota Timberwolves host the Portland Trail Blazers on 16 November 2026 in an NBA clash that the Pythia model sees leaning toward the Timberwolves, who are the favourite with a 63% chance of victory versus Portland's 37%, and a projected score of 117-113, 229.4 total points and a 6% overtime probability. Minnesota enters with an 8-3 record, 118.1 points per game and 107.0 allowed, ranking fifth, while their home slate is 4-1, 117.0 points scored and 102.8 allowed; they have won four of their last five and recently beat Utah 115-100 at home, New Orleans 115-109 away and Houston 117-107 away. Portland, 7-3 overall, averages 119.7 points and concedes 112.7, sits eleventh, and on the road is 5-1, 124.0 points scored and 115.3 allowed; they have won three of five recent games, with a 123-103 win over Oklahoma City at home, a 103-125 loss to San Antonio at home and a 118-124 defeat to Los Angeles away. Historically, Minnesota has won seven of ten meetings, though Portland's last encounter on 20 March 2026 saw them triumph 108-104.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (13) | 118.3 | 106.8 | 225.1 | +11.5 | 69% |
| Season at home (7) | 117.7 | 103.6 | 221.3 | +14.1 | 71% |
| Season away (6) | 119.0 | 110.5 | 229.5 | +8.5 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 117.5 | 109.5 | 227.0 | +8.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 117.2 | 105.4 | 222.6 | +11.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 104.5 | 120.7 | 225.2 | -16.2 | 33% |
| vs Similar ◀ (11) | 114.9 | 114.5 | 229.4 | +0.5 | 55% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 120.5 | 106.9 | 227.4 | +13.5 | 77% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (12) | 119.6 | 111.8 | 231.4 | +7.8 | 75% |
| Season at home (5) | 114.2 | 108.6 | 222.8 | +5.6 | 60% |
| Season away (7) | 123.4 | 114.1 | 237.6 | +9.3 | 86% |
| Last 10 (10) | 118.3 | 113.9 | 232.2 | +4.4 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 116.4 | 113.4 | 229.8 | +3.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 105.3 | 118.2 | 223.6 | -12.9 | 11% |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 116.8 | 110.9 | 227.7 | +5.9 | 80% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 121.5 | 102.3 | 223.7 | +19.2 | 91% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 57.1 | 55.8 | 112.8 | +1.3 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 57.5 | 54.2 | 111.7 | +3.3 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 56.7 | 57.3 | 114.0 | -0.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 56.9 | 54.6 | 111.5 | +2.3 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 56.6 | 53.8 | 110.4 | +2.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 49.8 | 57.3 | 107.2 | -7.5 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (11) | 58.6 | 57.9 | 116.5 | +0.7 | 36% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 59.1 | 53.2 | 112.3 | +5.8 | 85% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 61.4 | 56.6 | 118.0 | +4.8 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 61.7 | 53.3 | 115.0 | +8.4 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 61.1 | 59.5 | 120.6 | +1.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 60.3 | 57.7 | 118.0 | +2.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 57.6 | 55.8 | 113.4 | +1.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 57.2 | 59.9 | 117.1 | -2.7 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 61.7 | 57.6 | 119.3 | +4.1 | 60% | - |
| vs Weaker (11) | 64.5 | 53.0 | 117.5 | +11.5 | 73% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 54.5 | 28.2 | 54.0% | 56.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 36.2 | 13.2 | 35.1% | 39.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 27.2 | 19.2 | 77.2% | 19.2 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.9 | 22.6 | 54.0% | 45.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 43.2 | 14.7 | 35.1% | 44.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 30.3 | 23.6 | 77.2% | 23.6 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | Minnesota Timberwolves v Portland Trail Blazers | 104-108 |
| 25/02/26 | Portland Trail Blazers v Minnesota Timberwolves | 121-124 |
| 12/02/26 | Minnesota Timberwolves v Portland Trail Blazers | 133-109 |
| 23/10/25 | Portland Trail Blazers v Minnesota Timberwolves | 114-118 |
| 09/02/25 | Minnesota Timberwolves v Portland Trail Blazers | 114-98 |
| 14/11/24 | Portland Trail Blazers v Minnesota Timberwolves | 106-98 |
| 13/11/24 | Portland Trail Blazers v Minnesota Timberwolves | 122-108 |
| 09/11/24 | Minnesota Timberwolves v Portland Trail Blazers | 127-102 |
| 05/03/24 | Minnesota Timberwolves v Portland Trail Blazers | 119-114 |
| 16/02/24 | Portland Trail Blazers v Minnesota Timberwolves | 91-128 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | H | Chicago Bulls | 106-117 |
| 13/11/26 | H | Dallas Mavericks | 133-94 |
| 09/11/26 | H | Utah Jazz | 115-100 |
| 07/11/26 | A | New Orleans Pelicans | 115-109 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Houston Rockets | 117-107 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Milwaukee Bucks | 112-100 |
| 01/11/26 | A | San Antonio Spurs | 111-121 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Los Angeles Clippers | 127-101 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Golden State Warriors | 114-119 |
| 26/10/26 | A | Cleveland Cavaliers | 125-127 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Sacramento Kings | 120-107 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Oklahoma City Thunder | 118-108 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Oklahoma City Thunder | 123-103 |
| 08/11/26 | H | San Antonio Spurs | 103-125 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Los Angeles Lakers | 118-124 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Phoenix Suns | 132-119 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Denver Nuggets | 118-110 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Utah Jazz | 112-90 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Memphis Grizzlies | 103-124 |
| 28/10/26 | A | Los Angeles Lakers | 136-129 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWWL | 69% |
| Home | WWWWL | 71% |
| Away | WLLWW | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Win % | 69% | 71% | 67% |
| Points / game | 118.3 | 117.7 | 119.0 |
| Allowed / game | 106.8 | 103.6 | 110.5 |
| Point differential | +11.5 | +14.1 | +8.5 |
| Avg total | 225.1 | 221.3 | 229.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 62% | 71% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 8% | 0% | 17% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWWW | 75% |
| Home | WLLWW | 60% |
| Away | WWWLW | 86% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 5 | 7 |
| Win % | 75% | 60% | 86% |
| Points / game | 119.6 | 114.2 | 123.4 |
| Allowed / game | 111.8 | 108.6 | 114.1 |
| Point differential | +7.8 | +5.6 | +9.3 |
| Avg total | 231.4 | 222.8 | 237.6 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 60% | 43% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Antonio Spurs | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 119.5 | 106.2 | +13.2 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles Lakers | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 122.2 | 114.2 | +7.9 |
| 3 |  Boston Celtics | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83% | 114.2 | 103.1 | +11.2 |
| 4 |  Houston Rockets | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 116.2 | 107.4 | +8.8 |
| 5 |  Philadelphia 76ers | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 111.2 | 109.4 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Portland Trail Blazers | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 119.6 | 111.8 | +7.8 |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 118.3 | 106.8 | +11.5 |
| 8 |  Memphis Grizzlies | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 120.6 | 111.7 | +8.9 |
| 9 |  Detroit Pistons | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 115.7 | 110.2 | +5.4 |
| 10 |  Denver Nuggets | 11 | 7 | 4 | 64% | 114.6 | 112.8 | +1.8 |
| 11 |  Golden State Warriors | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 116.7 | 112.4 | +4.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 111.2 | 107.4 | +3.8 |
| 13 |  Atlanta Hawks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.2 | 116.8 | +1.3 |
| 14 |  Dallas Mavericks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 113.5 | 113.3 | +0.2 |
| 15 |  Miami Heat | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.7 | 119.8 | -1.2 |
| 16 |  New York Knicks | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 109.8 | 103.7 | +6.1 |
| 17 |  Cleveland Cavaliers | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 117.5 | 115.9 | +1.6 |
| 18 |  Phoenix Suns | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 111.7 | 116.1 | -4.4 |
| 19 |  Toronto Raptors | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 114.2 | 112.8 | +1.4 |
| 20 |  Orlando Magic | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 108.3 | 112.8 | -4.4 |
| 21 |  Indiana Pacers | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% | 111.2 | 113.2 | -2.1 |
| 22 |  Charlotte Hornets | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33% | 98.6 | 109.6 | -11.0 |
| 23 |  Washington Wizards | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | 110.0 | 115.8 | -5.8 |
| 24 |  New Orleans Pelicans | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 115.9 | 124.9 | -9.1 |
| 25 |  Los Angeles Clippers | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27% | 112.3 | 117.5 | -5.3 |
| 26 |  Brooklyn Nets | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 110.2 | 116.4 | -6.2 |
| 27 |  Chicago Bulls | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 114.6 | 125.9 | -11.3 |
| 28 |  Sacramento Kings | 12 | 1 | 11 | 8% | 108.2 | 120.9 | -12.8 |
| 29 |  Utah Jazz | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 107.5 | 118.6 | -11.2 |
| 30 |  Milwaukee Bucks | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 106.2 | 120.2 | -14.1 |
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