PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Minnesota hosts Western Illinois on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Gophers as the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win largely because of their 3-0 season record, 74.7 points per game and 57.7 points allowed per game, placing them 84th in the league, while the Prairie Stars are 1-2 with 71.7 points per game and 67.3 allowed, 264th. Minnesota's three games have yielded a 3-0 record, 74.7 points scored and 57.7 allowed, and at home they are 2-0 with 80.5 points per game and 56.0 allowed; their last five games were 4-1, highlighted by a 63-61 win over Cincinnati, a 76-62 victory over St. Thomas (Minn.), and an 85-50 rout of North Dakota. Western Illinois has a 1-2 record, 71.7 points scored and 67.3 allowed, and on the road they are 0-1 with 58.0 points per game and 80.0 allowed; their last five games were 1-4, including a 90-48 win over Simpson (CA), a 67-74 loss to Houston Christian and a 58-80 defeat to Valparaiso. The Pythia model projects a 88-56 score, 144.2 total points, a 99% probability that Minnesota will win and a 1% chance for Western Illinois, with no over/under or overtime likelihoods. The Gophers' dominant offensive and defensive numbers suggest they will comfortably control the game.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 74.7 | 57.7 | 132.3 | +17.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 80.5 | 56.0 | 136.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 63.0 | 61.0 | 124.0 | +2.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 69.1 | 64.3 | 133.4 | +4.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 62.2 | 133.8 | +9.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 67.6 | 75.5 | 143.2 | -7.9 | 31% |
| vs Similar (8) | 68.9 | 67.9 | 136.8 | +1.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 72.8 | 58.8 | 131.6 | +14.0 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 71.7 | 67.3 | 139.0 | +4.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 78.5 | 61.0 | 139.5 | +17.5 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 58.0 | 80.0 | 138.0 | -22.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 65.3 | 74.8 | 140.1 | -9.5 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 66.2 | 72.0 | 138.2 | -5.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 63.3 | 78.9 | 142.2 | -15.7 | 8% |
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker (1) | 74.0 | 63.0 | 137.0 | +11.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.0 | 30.6 | 63.6 | +2.5 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 34.9 | 29.7 | 64.6 | +5.2 | 74% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 29.8 | 32.1 | 61.9 | -2.3 | 18% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.5 | 29.1 | 62.6 | +4.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 27.0 | 63.2 | +9.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 32.2 | 32.3 | 64.5 | -0.1 | 38% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 32.6 | 31.8 | 64.4 | +0.9 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 34.6 | 27.0 | 61.6 | +7.6 | 89% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 29.8 | 36.1 | 65.9 | -6.3 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 30.6 | 33.1 | 63.7 | -2.5 | 41% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 28.7 | 40.0 | 68.7 | -11.3 | 15% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 28.7 | 35.9 | 64.6 | -7.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 28.2 | 35.4 | 63.6 | -7.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 29.0 | 37.6 | 66.5 | -8.6 | 23% | - |
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker (1) | 34.0 | 36.0 | 70.0 | -2.0 | 0% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Cincinnati | 63-61 |
| 07/11/26 | H | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 76-62 |
| 03/11/26 | H | North Dakota | 85-50 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Rutgers | 67-72 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Northwestern | 67-66 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Indiana | 47-77 |
| 28/02/26 | H | UCLA | 78-73 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Michigan | 67-77 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Rutgers | 80-61 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Oregon | 61-44 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Simpson (CA) | 90-48 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Houston Christian | 67-74 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Valparaiso | 58-80 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Lindenwood | 69-91 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Siu Edwardsville | 47-67 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Morehead State | 59-81 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Southern Indiana | 70-77 |
| 13/02/26 | H | UALR | 58-77 |
| 11/02/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 79-70 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Tennessee State | 56-83 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 74.7 | 80.5 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 57.7 | 56.0 | 61.0 |
| Point differential | +17.0 | +24.5 | +2.0 |
| Avg total | 132.3 | 136.5 | 124.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 71.7 | 78.5 | 58.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.3 | 61.0 | 80.0 |
| Point differential | +4.3 | +17.5 | -22.0 |
| Avg total | 139.0 | 139.5 | 138.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rutgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.0 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  UCLA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 69.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 |  Nebraska | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 86.5 | 61.0 | +25.5 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 64.3 | +24.3 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 |
| 6 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Indiana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 68.7 | +20.0 |
| 8 |  USC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 74.5 | +19.5 |
| 9 |  Northwestern | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 60.0 | +18.7 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 74.7 | 57.7 | +17.0 |
| 11 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 12 |  Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 103.3 | 66.3 | +37.0 |
| 13 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 14 |  Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 |
| 15 |  Purdue | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 71.3 | +6.7 |
| 16 |  Maryland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 |
| 17 |  Michigan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.5 | 76.5 | +4.0 |
| 18 |  Penn State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lindenwood | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 98.0 | 62.7 | +35.3 |
| 2 |  Tennessee State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 104.7 | 76.0 | +28.7 |
| 3 |  Tennessee Tech | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 100.7 | 90.0 | +10.7 |
| 4 |  Southeast Missouri State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 74.0 | +7.3 |
| 5 |  Siu Edwardsville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.8 | 68.5 | +9.2 |
| 6 |  Southern Indiana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 64.0 | +16.7 |
| 7 |  UT Martin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 80.0 | +4.7 |
| 8 | Western Illinois | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 71.7 | 67.3 | +4.3 |
| 9 |  Morehead State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 83.3 | -7.0 |
| 10 |  UALR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 86.3 | -13.0 |
| 11 |  Eastern Illinois | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 58.0 | 92.0 | -34.0 |
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