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Mladost vs Novi Zagreb Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 76-80
Projected total 155.7
Scheduled
Position#14
Record0-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game66.7
Allowed / game90.2
Mladost
Croatia
Vs
38%
62%
■ MLAD 38%■ NOVI 62%
Pythia win probability
Novi Zagreb
Croatia
Position#5
Record4-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game76.7
Allowed / game74.8
CroatiaPrva LigaRound 7· Basketball Dome Cedevita
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mladost v Novi Zagreb
22 Nov 2026
MLAD v NOVI
upcoming
28 Mar 2026
MLAD92
NOVI70
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Mladost host Novi Zagreb in the Prva Liga. Pythia makes Novi Zagreb the favourite at 62% and projects 76-80, about 156 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Mladost are 0-6 this season (66.7 scored, 90.2 allowed a game), form LLLLL; Novi Zagreb are 4-2 this season (76.7 scored, 74.8 allowed a game), form WLWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mladost win
37.6%fair 2.66
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Novi Zagreb win
62.4%fair 1.60
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 07:37 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MladostCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMladost
Date
Competition
Sonik Puntamika
#12
W
69-58
69
58
+11
70avg 75
H12/04
Prva Liga
Amfora
#13
W
138-81
138
81
+57
135avg 75
A18/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
58-64
58
64
-6
51avg 75
A23/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
59-63
59
63
-4
50avg 75
H26/04
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#9
L
53-75
53
75
-22
no box
A10/10
Prva Liga
Radnik Krizevci
#11
L
75-105
75
105
-30
no box
H17/10
Prva Liga
Jazine
#2
L
59-85
59
85
-26
no box
A24/10
Prva Liga
Gorica
#13
L
73-95
73
95
-22
no box
A31/10
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#8
L
70-75
70
75
-5
no box
H08/11
Prva Liga
GKK Sibenka
#1
L
70-106
70
106
-36
no box
A14/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-6
16-18
16-20
17-14
33-14
36-23
36-22
33-22
16-20
16-14
17-13
9-17
11-23
12-11
14-15
22-14
15-19
12-23
14-18
12-15
11-30
23-27
17-28
24-20
18-22
13-15
11-27
17-21
16-19
18-28
17-30
22-18
18-16
15-15
17-16
20-28
13-32
22-17
20-26
15-31
153.1Avg total
72.4Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)66.790.2156.8-23.50%
Season at home (2)72.590.0162.5-17.50%
Season away (4)63.890.2154.0-26.50%
Last 10 (10)72.480.7153.1-8.320%
Last 5 (5)69.493.2162.6-23.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)69.084.2153.2-15.217%
vs Similar (4)79.874.5154.2+5.250%
vs Weaker (14)86.472.9159.2+13.586%
This opponent (Novi Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Novi ZagrebCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormZagreb
Date
Competition
Mladost
#3
L
70-92
70
92
-22
61avg 70
A28/03
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#1
L
72-85
72
85
-13
70avg 70
H01/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
66-91
66
91
-25
57avg 70
H12/04
Prva Liga
Gorica
#5
L
84-98
84
98
-14
81avg 70
A18/04
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#6
W
83-77
83
77
+6
no box
A10/10
Prva Liga
Kastela
#7
W
71-68
71
68
+3
no box
H17/10
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#3
L
71-85
71
85
-14
no box
A25/10
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#9
W
92-74
92
74
+18
no box
H31/10
Prva Liga
Radnik Krizevci
#11
W
78-69
78
69
+9
no box
A07/11
Prva Liga
Jazine
#2
L
65-76
65
76
-11
no box
H14/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-26
18-22
18-29
18-15
23-17
16-25
13-26
20-17
14-33
18-15
18-19
16-24
23-25
27-27
20-35
14-11
21-20
24-22
22-26
16-9
22-17
12-18
16-19
21-14
15-20
20-25
17-24
19-16
32-18
18-17
24-15
18-24
29-25
19-13
11-19
19-12
16-21
18-15
20-16
11-24
156.7Avg total
75.2Scored
81.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)76.774.8151.5+1.867%
Season at home (3)76.072.7148.7+3.367%
Season away (3)77.377.0154.3+0.367%
Last 10 (10)75.281.5156.7-6.340%
Last 5 (5)75.474.4149.8+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)69.384.6153.9-15.217%
vs Similar (14)75.074.4149.4+0.657%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)97.862.8160.5+35.0100%
This opponent (Mladost) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5
Over 153.5
54.4%
Under 153.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 158.5
Over 158.5
42.4%
Under 158.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 163.5
Over 163.5
31.2%
Under 163.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Mladost total 77.5
Over 77.5
44.0%
Under 77.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost total 81.5
Over 81.5
29.6%
Under 81.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost total 85.5
Over 85.5
18.1%
Under 85.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Novi Zagreb total 73
Over 73
74.8%
Under 73
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Novi Zagreb total 77
Over 77
60.4%
Under 77
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Novi Zagreb total 81
Over 81
44.3%
Under 81
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Mladost -3
MLAD -3
29.1%
NOVI +3
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
MLAD
No market prices yet.
NOVI
No market prices yet.
Spread Mladost 0
MLAD 0
37.6%
NOVI 0
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
MLAD
No market prices yet.
NOVI
No market prices yet.
Spread Mladost +3
MLAD +3
46.3%
NOVI -3
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
MLAD
No market prices yet.
NOVI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: -4.9-4.9Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: -4.9-4.9Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.6+0.6
MladostNovi Zagreb
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MladostLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sonik Puntamika
#12
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H12/04
Prva Liga
Amfora
#13
W
69-37
69
37
+32
A18/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A23/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
23-34
23
34
-11
H26/04
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#9
L
27-42
27
42
-15
A10/10
Prva Liga
Radnik Krizevci
#11
L
34-57
34
57
-23
H17/10
Prva Liga
Jazine
#2
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A24/10
Prva Liga
Gorica
#13
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A31/10
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#8
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H08/11
Prva Liga
GKK Sibenka
#1
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A14/11
Prva Liga
74.6Avg total
35.4Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.237.476.5+1.853%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.034.172.1+3.971%-
Last 30 away (16)40.240.280.4-0.138%-
Last 10 (10)35.439.274.6-3.830%-
Last 5 (5)33.444.277.6-10.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)34.440.875.2-6.325%-
vs Similar (4)39.540.279.8-0.850%-
vs Weaker (14)43.133.676.8+9.579%-
This opponent (Novi Zagreb) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Novi ZagrebLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mladost
#3
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A28/03
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#1
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H01/04
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
32-48
32
48
-16
H12/04
Prva Liga
Gorica
#5
L
50-52
50
52
-2
A18/04
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#6
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A10/10
Prva Liga
Kastela
#7
L
34-35
34
35
-1
H17/10
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#3
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A25/10
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#9
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H31/10
Prva Liga
Radnik Krizevci
#11
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A07/11
Prva Liga
Jazine
#2
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H14/11
Prva Liga
82.2Avg total
40.1Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.839.377.2-1.540%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.536.174.7+2.447%-
Last 30 away (15)37.142.579.7-5.433%-
Last 10 (10)40.142.182.2-2.030%-
Last 5 (5)40.237.878.0+2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)34.242.676.8-8.317%-
vs Similar (14)37.838.976.7-1.143%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)48.831.079.8+17.8100%-
This opponent (Mladost) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mladosttheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mladost: 76.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.921.0
51.3%
53.1%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.97.8
31.3%
32.7%23.4
🏀 Free throws14.410.8
75.0%
71.7%10.8
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Novi Zagrebtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Novi Zagreb: 74.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.718.2
51.0%
53.1%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.68.9
36.2%
32.7%26.7
🏀 Free throws16.811.6
69.0%
71.7%11.6
They take 60.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mladost
LLLLLLLLWW
Novi Zagreb
LWWLWWLLLL
#14
League position
#5
+3.5
Net rating
-8.3
88.6
Offensive rating
88.2
85.1
Defensive rating
96.4
49.7%
Effective FG%
52.3%
49.1%
Opp. effective FG%
54.8%
17.2%
Turnover %
19.2%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.28
31.3%
3-point %
36.2%
62.2%
Assist %
65.7%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence88.6 · 88.2Defence85.1 · 96.4Shooting49.7% · 52.3%3-point %31.3% · 36.2%Ball care17.2% · 19.2%Free throws0.22 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)20% · 40%
■ Mladost   ■ Novi Zagreb
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Mladost wins
0
Novi Zagreb wins
DateGameScore
28/03/26Mladost v Novi Zagreb92-70
13/12/25Novi Zagreb v Mladost68-74
Mladostlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AGKK Sibenka70-106
08/11/26HMarsonia70-75
31/10/26AGorica73-95
24/10/26AJazine59-85
17/10/26HRadnik Krizevci75-105
10/10/26ACrikvenica53-75
26/04/26HKastela59-63
23/04/26AKastela58-64
18/04/26AAmfora138-81
12/04/26HSonik Puntamika69-58
Novi Zagreblast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HJazine65-76
07/11/26ARadnik Krizevci78-69
31/10/26HCrikvenica92-74
25/10/26AKK Zagreb71-85
17/10/26HKastela71-68
10/10/26ADakovo83-77
18/04/26AGorica84-98
12/04/26HKastela66-91
01/04/26HSkrljevo72-85
28/03/26AMladost70-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mladost
Prva Liga 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game66.772.563.8
Allowed / game90.290.090.2
Point differential-23.5-17.5-26.5
Avg total156.8162.5154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Novi Zagreb
Prva Liga 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL67%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game76.776.077.3
Allowed / game74.872.777.0
Point differential+1.8+3.3+0.3
Avg total151.5148.7154.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 GKK Sibenka660100%85.271.3+13.8
2 Jazine64267%84.078.0+6.0
3 KK Zagreb64267%77.271.2+6.0
4 Hermes64267%73.571.3+2.2
5 Novi Zagreb64267%76.774.8+1.8
6 Dakovo63350%88.285.2+3.0
7 Kastela63350%74.071.8+2.2
8 Marsonia63350%75.575.8-0.3
9 Crikvenica63350%73.073.8-0.8
10 Sonik Puntamika63350%81.284.3-3.2
11 Radnik Krizevci62433%77.275.5+1.7
12 Omis62433%71.575.8-4.3
13 Gorica61517%78.783.2-4.5
14 Mladost6060%66.790.2-23.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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