PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Montana State will host Cal Poly on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Wildcats as the clear favourite, giving them an 80% chance to win, a reflection of their higher points per game and stronger defensive record this season. Montana State is 1-2 overall, averaging 76.0 points and allowing 80.0, while Cal Poly sits 2-2, averaging 79.0 and conceding 84.8; the Wildcats have a perfect 1-0 home record, 83.0 points scored and 70.0 allowed, whereas the Roadrunners are 1-2 on the road, 79.3 points scored and 92.3 allowed, and both teams have finished their last five games with 2-3 records. Their only previous meeting ended 83-80 in favour of Montana State on 16 December 2025. Pythia projects a 84-75 score, a total of 159.4, and gives the home team a 57% chance to cover the -7.5 line while the over on the 165.5 line has a 35% probability; the game has a 4% chance of overtime. The next contest will see Montana State extend its home dominance with a win over Cal Poly.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 76.0 | 80.0 | 156.0 | -4.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 83.0 | 70.0 | 153.0 | +13.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 72.5 | 85.0 | 157.5 | -12.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.1 | 75.7 | 153.8 | +2.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.6 | 76.6 | 152.2 | -1.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 77.0 | 82.0 | 159.0 | -5.0 | 25% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 78.9 | 74.1 | 153.0 | +4.8 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 75.5 | 70.2 | 145.7 | +5.4 | 62% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 79.0 | 84.8 | 163.8 | -5.8 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 78.0 | 62.0 | 140.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 79.3 | 92.3 | 171.7 | -13.0 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.0 | 84.1 | 167.1 | -1.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.0 | 82.2 | 159.2 | -5.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (22) | 78.4 | 86.4 | 164.8 | -8.0 | 32% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 86.5 | 85.2 | 171.8 | +1.2 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 106.0 | 77.5 | 183.5 | +28.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.9 | 33.2 | 70.1 | +3.7 | 63% | 20% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 40.6 | 32.6 | 73.1 | +8.0 | 93% | 14% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 33.8 | 33.8 | 67.5 | +0.0 | 38% | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.1 | 36.2 | 72.3 | -0.1 | 70% | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 36.0 | 72.8 | +0.8 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 35.2 | 40.0 | 75.2 | -4.8 | 25% | 25% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 37.3 | 31.6 | 68.9 | +5.8 | 92% | 8% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 36.4 | 33.6 | 70.0 | +2.8 | 46% | 31% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.0 | 40.0 | 78.1 | -2.0 | 47% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.2 | 39.5 | 77.7 | -1.3 | 40% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.9 | 40.5 | 78.4 | -2.7 | 53% | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.8 | 38.8 | 78.6 | +1.0 | 60% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 35.6 | 71.2 | +0.0 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (22) | 36.0 | 40.8 | 76.8 | -4.9 | 36% | 55% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 39.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | -3.0 | 50% | 75% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 59.0 | 38.0 | 97.0 | +21.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly under 81.5 | 74.1% | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | - | - | +17.4pp |
| Under 168.5 | 71.6% | 1.70 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.68 | 1.65 | - | +17.1pp |
| Montana State -4 | 70.4% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +10.6pp |
| Montana State (regulation) | 77.5% | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | +10.4pp |
| Montana State under 91.5 | 76.2% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +9.4pp |
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17/12/25 | Cal Poly v Montana State | 80-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | Brigham Young | 71-86 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Long Beach State | 83-70 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Colorado State | 74-84 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Idaho | 74-78 |
| 03/03/26 | A | Northern Arizona | 76-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Sacramento State | 82-61 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Portland State | 84-69 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Idaho State | 76-91 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Weber State | 79-82 OT |
| 15/02/26 | A | Montana | 82-71 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Idaho | 83-74 |
| 12/11/26 | A | Grand Canyon | 71-99 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Arizona | 84-104 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Cal St. San Marcos | 78-62 |
| 12/03/26 | A | UC San Diego | 69-72 |
| 08/03/26 | H | CSU Bakersfield | 108-76 |
| 06/03/26 | A | UC Irvine | 85-107 |
| 01/03/26 | A | UC San Diego | 64-80 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Long Beach State | 102-92 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Hawaii | 86-75 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.0 | 83.0 | 72.5 |
| Allowed / game | 80.0 | 70.0 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | -4.0 | +13.0 | -12.5 |
| Avg total | 156.0 | 153.0 | 157.5 |
| Over 165.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 79.0 | 78.0 | 79.3 |
| Allowed / game | 84.8 | 62.0 | 92.3 |
| Point differential | -5.8 | +16.0 | -13.0 |
| Avg total | 163.8 | 140.0 | 171.7 |
| Over 165.5 | 50% | 0% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Idaho | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.5 | 71.5 | +15.0 |
| 2 |  Montana | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.0 | 65.2 | +12.8 |
| 3 |  Northern Colorado | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 82.0 | 69.2 | +12.8 |
| 4 |  Portland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 73.2 | +8.2 |
| 5 |  Sacramento State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 77.3 | -3.0 |
| 6 | Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 83.5 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  Weber State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 86.2 | -11.8 |
| 9 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 2 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 3 |  CSU Bakersfield | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 72.3 | +19.3 |
| 4 |  Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 5 |  UC Riverside | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.5 | 67.8 | +15.8 |
| 6 |  UC Davis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 74.0 | 64.0 | +10.0 |
| 7 |  CS Fullerton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 88.7 | 86.0 | +2.7 |
| 8 |  UC San Diego | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 87.7 | 86.7 | +1.0 |
| 9 | Cal Poly | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 84.8 | -5.8 |
| 10 |  CS Northridge | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 81.0 | +3.3 |
| 11 |  Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
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