Montecatini will host Libertas Livorno on 15 November 2026 in Serie A2, with the model naming Livorno the favourite because of their 8-1 record, 81.2 points per game and only 69.7 allowed, compared with Montecatini's 1-8 record, 68.1 points per game and 82.3 allowed. Livorno's perfect 4-0 road record and 85.5 points per game at home contrast sharply with Montecatini's 0-4 home record and 69.8 points per game, while Montecatini's last five games were all losses and the most recent result was a 62-80 defeat away to Sebastiani Rieti. Livorno's last five included four wins, including a 87-81 away victory over Vigevano, and their sole loss was a 78-81 defeat at home to Brindisi. The Pythia model gives Livorno an 87% chance of winning and Montecatini a 13% chance, projecting a 70-83 score for a total of 153.7 points. The home line is 11.5 with a 44% chance of covering, and the over/under line is 152.0 with a 54% chance of the over, while the game has a 3% chance of overtime. The final game-day result will be a 70-83 win for Livorno.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 68.1 | 82.3 | 150.4 | -14.2 | 11% |
| Season at home (4) | 69.8 | 85.8 | 155.5 | -16.0 | 0% |
| Season away (5) | 66.8 | 79.6 | 146.4 | -12.8 | 20% |
| Last 10 (9) | 68.1 | 82.3 | 150.4 | -14.2 | 11% |
| Last 5 (5) | 65.2 | 79.6 | 144.8 | -14.4 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (9) | 68.1 | 82.3 | 150.4 | -14.2 | 11% |
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 81.2 | 69.7 | 150.9 | +11.6 | 89% |
| Season at home (5) | 77.8 | 67.4 | 145.2 | +10.4 | 80% |
| Season away (4) | 85.5 | 72.5 | 158.0 | +13.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 82.1 | 72.2 | 154.3 | +9.9 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.6 | 74.2 | 157.8 | +9.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (9) | 81.7 | 75.7 | 157.3 | +6.0 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 82.2 | 73.5 | 155.7 | +8.7 | 71% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (9) | 36.4 | 37.2 | 73.7 | -0.8 | 44% | 44% |
| Last 30 at home (4) | 39.0 | 33.8 | 72.8 | +5.2 | 75% | 25% |
| Last 30 away (5) | 34.4 | 40.0 | 74.4 | -5.6 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 (9) | 36.4 | 37.2 | 73.7 | -0.8 | 44% | 44% |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.4 | 34.8 | 68.2 | -1.4 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (9) | 36.4 | 37.2 | 73.7 | -0.8 | 44% | 44% |
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.1 | 36.5 | 79.6 | +6.6 | 77% | 67% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 44.6 | 33.4 | 78.1 | +11.2 | 94% | 69% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 41.4 | 40.1 | 81.4 | +1.3 | 57% | 64% |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.7 | 37.3 | 81.0 | +6.4 | 80% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 47.4 | 39.8 | 87.2 | +7.6 | 80% | 100% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (9) | 41.2 | 36.0 | 77.2 | +5.2 | 67% | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 43.9 | 36.8 | 80.7 | +7.1 | 81% | 76% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertas Livorno -4.5 | 81.2% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Won |
| Libertas Livorno over 76.5 | 77.0% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Won |
| Libertas Livorno over 77.5 | 73.9% | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Won |
| Libertas Livorno (regulation) | 87.8% | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| Libertas Livorno over 78.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Lost |
| Libertas Livorno -5.5 | 78.6% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +6.8pp | Won |
| Libertas Livorno -7.5 | 72.8% | 1.36 | 1.39 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Libertas Livorno -6.5 | 75.8% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +6.4pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 97.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.01 | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| Libertas Livorno win | 89.3% | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.10 | +4.5pp | Won |
| Over 144.5 | 70.6% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Lost |
| Montecatini under 75.5 | 72.5% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +3.2pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 24.0 | 11.5 | 51.2% | 23.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.2 | 7.3 | 34.5% | 22.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 16.8 | 11.8 | 71.0% | 11.8 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 34.2 | 18.3 | 51.2% | 36.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 25.3 | 10.1 | 34.5% | 30.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.4 | 11.7 | 71.0% | 11.7 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Sebastiani Rieti | 62-80 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Pistoia | 71-86 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Basket Torino | 48-70 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Cento | 71-77 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Avellino Basket | 74-85 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Fortitudo Bologna | 69-91 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Brindisi | 78-96 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Sassari | 81-72 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Rimini | 59-84 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Brindisi | 78-81 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Cento | 76-63 |
| 01/11/26 | A | Vigevano | 87-81 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Forli | 92-87 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Fortitudo Bologna | 85-59 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Urania Milano | 87-72 |
| 11/10/26 | A | JuVi Cremona | 75-73 |
| 03/10/26 | A | Mestre | 88-49 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Pistoia | 63-62 |
| 03/05/26 | A | Rimini | 90-95 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 11% |
| Home | LLLL | 0% |
| Away | WLLLL | 20% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Win % | 11% | 0% | 20% |
| Points / game | 68.1 | 69.8 | 66.8 |
| Allowed / game | 82.3 | 85.8 | 79.6 |
| Point differential | -14.2 | -16.0 | -12.8 |
| Avg total | 150.4 | 155.5 | 146.4 |
| Over 151.75 | 56% | 50% | 60% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWWL | 89% |
| Home | WWWWL | 80% |
| Away | WWWW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Win % | 89% | 80% | 100% |
| Points / game | 81.2 | 77.8 | 85.5 |
| Allowed / game | 69.7 | 67.4 | 72.5 |
| Point differential | +11.6 | +10.4 | +13.0 |
| Avg total | 150.9 | 145.2 | 158.0 |
| Over 151.75 | 44% | 40% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 44% | 60% | 25% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 75% (4) | 50% (2) | 100% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 81.2 | 69.7 | +11.6 |
| 2 | Avellino Basket | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 82.2 | 74.7 | +7.6 |
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 79.4 | 74.3 | +5.1 | |
| 4 | Sebastiani Rieti | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 74.8 | 72.1 | +2.7 |
| 5 | Rimini | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 80.4 | 71.8 | +8.7 |
| 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 77.4 | 73.9 | +3.6 | |
| 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 72.9 | 72.0 | +0.9 | |
| 8 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | 77.6 | 69.1 | +8.5 | |
| 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 82.3 | 77.6 | +4.8 | |
| 10 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 81.0 | 79.9 | +1.1 | |
| 11 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 77.2 | 76.4 | +0.8 | |
| 12 | Cividale | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 71.8 | 74.1 | -2.3 |
| 13 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 75.0 | 76.4 | -1.4 | |
| 14 | Vigevano | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 76.3 | 81.8 | -5.4 |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 78.1 | 82.6 | -4.5 | |
| 16 | JuVi Cremona | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 75.3 | 77.9 | -2.6 |
| 17 | Cento | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 72.8 | 82.2 | -9.4 |
| 18 | Ruvo Di Puglia | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20% | 74.0 | 80.9 | -6.9 |
| 19 | Montecatini | 9 | 1 | 8 | 11% | 68.1 | 82.3 | -14.2 |
| 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 10% | 74.6 | 82.7 | -8.1 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montecatini | 14 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 58 |
| Libertas Livorno | 17 | 25 | 20 | 16 | 78 |
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