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Morgan State vs Mount St. Mary's Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 25 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 74-67
Projected total 141.1
Scheduled
Position#83
Record4-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game64.6
Vs
75%
25%
■ MORG 75%■ MOUN 25%
Pythia win probability
Position#296
Record1-2
FormWLLWL
Points / game60.7
Allowed / game78.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Morgan State v Mount St. Mary's
24 Nov 2026
MORG v MOUN
upcoming
25 Nov 2020
MORG55
MOUN62
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Morgan State host Mount St. Mary's in the NCAA. Pythia makes Morgan State the favourite at 75% and projects 74-67, about 141 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Morgan State are 4-1 this season (80.8 scored, 64.6 allowed a game), form WWWLW; Mount St. Mary's are 1-2 this season (60.7 scored, 78.7 allowed a game), form WLLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Morgan State win
74.6%fair 1.34
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Mount St. Mary's win
25.4%fair 3.93
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 07:37 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Morgan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina St
#336
W
90-83
90
83
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
59-84
59
84
-25
H28/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#233
W
90-84
90
84
+6
H02/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
70-66
70
66
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
L
70-75 OT
70
75
-5
H11/03
NCAA
Cheyney Wolves
#433
W
103-52
103
52
+51
H03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
95-58
95
58
+37
H05/11
NCAA
Niagara
#383
W
73-67
73
67
+6
A07/11
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#261
L
70-85
70
85
-15
A12/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
W
63-61 OT
63
61
+2
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-40
48-43
22-30
37-54
45-29
45-55
34-32
36-34
15-27
45-33
50-25
53-27
47-26
48-32
42-34
31-33
39-42
31-43
30-35
27-22
149.8Avg total
78.3Scored
71.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)80.864.6145.4+16.280%
Season at home (2)99.055.0154.0+44.0100%
Season away (3)68.771.0139.7-2.367%
Last 10 (10)78.371.5149.8+6.870%
Last 5 (5)80.864.6145.4+16.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)69.585.1154.6-15.638%
vs Similar (7)64.779.6144.3-14.914%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)83.968.1152.0+15.787%
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mount St. Mary'sUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
83-76
83
76
+7
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
69-47
69
47
+22
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#8
L
52-97
52
97
-45
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
W
68-57
68
57
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
62-82
62
82
-20
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-34
44-42
28-21
37-34
31-31
45-32
20-24
48-23
32-31
37-46
39-25
30-22
21-35
37-28
16-51
36-46
29-22
39-35
30-42
32-40
133.4Avg total
67.0Scored
66.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)60.778.7139.3-18.033%
Season at home (1)68.057.0125.0+11.0100%
Season away (2)57.089.5146.5-32.50%
Last 10 (10)67.066.4133.4+0.660%
Last 5 (5)61.869.2131.0-7.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)63.274.3137.5-11.127%
vs Similar (8)72.274.4146.6-2.150%
vs Weaker (7)71.356.3127.6+15.0100%
This opponent (Morgan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141
Over 141
49.6%
Under 141
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
37.4%
Under 146
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
26.5%
Under 151
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Morgan State total 75.5
Over 75.5
45.2%
Under 75.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 79.5
Over 79.5
30.1%
Under 79.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 83.5
Over 83.5
17.9%
Under 83.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mount St. Mary's total 62.5
Over 62.5
65.9%
Under 62.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mount St. Mary's total 66.5
Over 66.5
50.7%
Under 66.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mount St. Mary's total 70.5
Over 70.5
35.5%
Under 70.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Morgan State -3
MORG -3
67.3%
MOUN +3
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
MORG
No market prices yet.
MOUN
No market prices yet.
Spread Morgan State 0
MORG 0
74.6%
MOUN 0
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
MORG
No market prices yet.
MOUN
No market prices yet.
Spread Morgan State +3
MORG +3
81.5%
MOUN -3
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
MORG
No market prices yet.
MOUN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.6+4.61st half: -3.1-3.12nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: +3.7+3.7
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.6+4.61st half: -3.1-3.12nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: +3.7+3.7
Morgan StateMount St. Mary's
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Morgan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina St
#336
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A25/02
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#233
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H02/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H06/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
L
15-27
15
27
-12
H11/03
NCAA
Cheyney Wolves
#433
W
50-25
50
25
+25
H03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
47-26
47
26
+21
H05/11
NCAA
Niagara
#383
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A07/11
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#261
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A12/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A14/11
NCAA
68.6Avg total
36.6Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.136.371.4-1.343%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.731.769.3+6.060%-
Last 30 away (15)32.541.073.5-8.527%-
Last 10 (10)36.632.068.6+4.660%-
Last 5 (5)41.632.474.0+9.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)31.139.670.8-8.512%-
vs Similar (7)28.640.769.3-12.114%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)40.232.572.7+7.773%-
This opponent (Mount St. Mary's) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mount St. Mary'sLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A08/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
28-21
28
21
+7
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H22/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
39-25
39
25
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
21-35
21
35
-14
A08/03
NCAA
Xavier
#8
L
16-51
16
51
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#335
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
30-42
30
42
-12
A14/11
NCAA
60.1Avg total
28.5Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.534.265.8-2.740%-
Last 30 at home (13)33.233.266.5+0.038%-
Last 30 away (17)30.235.065.2-4.841%-
Last 10 (10)28.531.660.1-3.150%-
Last 5 (5)27.035.062.0-8.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)29.935.765.6-5.740%-
vs Similar (8)35.436.171.5-0.850%-
vs Weaker (7)30.629.059.6+1.629%-
This opponent (Morgan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Morgan State wins
2
Mount St. Mary's wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ALoyola Maryland63-61 OT
12/11/26AUMBC Retrievers70-85
07/11/26ANiagara73-67
05/11/26HVirginia-Lynchburg95-58
03/11/26HCheyney Wolves103-52
11/03/26HDelaware State70-75 OT
06/03/26HCoppin State70-66
02/03/26HNorfolk State90-84
28/02/26HHoward59-84
25/02/26ASouth Carolina St90-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AVirginia Tech62-82
07/11/26HLoyola Maryland68-57
03/11/26AXavier52-97
08/03/26ASiena58-63
01/03/26AFairfield69-47
28/02/26ASacred Heart69-77
22/02/26HCanisius68-47
21/02/26HNiagara76-63
14/02/26ARider65-55
08/02/26AIona83-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Morgan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game80.899.068.7
Allowed / game64.655.071.0
Point differential+16.2+44.0-2.3
Avg total145.4154.0139.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %20%0%33%
Mount St. Mary's
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game60.768.057.0
Allowed / game78.757.089.5
Point differential-18.0+11.0-32.5
Avg total139.3125.0146.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-Eastern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Morgan State54180%80.864.6+16.2
2 South Carolina St43175%78.272.8+5.5
3 Howard53260%72.070.6+1.4
4 Norfolk State42250%69.872.8-3.0
5 Delaware State41325%68.068.2-0.2
6 Coppin State51420%62.467.6-5.2
7 Md.-East. Shore51420%58.670.0-11.4
8 N. Carolina Central4040%63.574.2-10.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
6 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
7 Quinnipiac52340%68.274.8-6.6
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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