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Mt Gambier vs Keilor Thunder Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 26 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 10:30
Final 83-96
24-27 26-26 10-25 23-18
Position#1
Record4-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game88.4
Allowed / game83.6
vs
Position#10
Record3-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game94.3
Allowed / game101.5
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2024
Meetings · Mt Gambier v Keilor Thunder
26 Apr 2024
MT G83
KEIL96
22 Apr 2023
MT G106
KEIL82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mt Gambier winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Keilor Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mt GambierAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NW Tasmania
#17
W
81-80
81
80
+1
A08/07
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
83-78
83
78
+5
A15/07
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
L
88-95
88
95
-7
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
97-96 OT
97
96
+1
A22/07
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
63-68
63
68
-5
H04/08
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
97-79
97
79
+18
A06/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
W
67-63
67
63
+4
A07/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
W
93-87
93
87
+6
H13/04
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
94-105
94
105
-11
H14/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
91-84
91
84
+7
H19/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-28
20-18
18-18
16-16
20-25
22-13
20-23
21-17
27-24
21-24
22-27
18-20
17-30
27-20
14-18
26-16
22-20
12-13
13-13
16-22
28-25
27-11
20-22
22-21
18-17
16-17
16-9
17-20
19-38
26-14
23-17
25-18
28-30
26-23
20-26
20-26
19-28
26-16
27-25
19-15
168.9Avg total
85.4Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)88.483.6172.0+4.880%
Season at home (3)92.792.0184.7+0.767%
Season away (2)82.071.0153.0+11.0100%
Last 10 (10)85.483.5168.9+1.970%
Last 5 (5)88.483.6172.0+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)63.072.5135.5-9.50%
vs Similar (11)95.691.2186.8+4.564%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)90.182.7172.8+7.476%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NW Tasmania
#17
W
92-77
92
77
+15
A07/07
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
89-97
89
97
-8
A08/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#10
L
85-116
85
116
-31
A15/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
63-98
63
98
-35
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
98-115
98
115
-17
A05/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#18
W
110-106
110
106
+4
A09/04
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#16
L
81-108
81
108
-27
A11/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
W
103-97
103
97
+6
H14/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
69-87
69
87
-18
H20/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
105-96
105
96
+9
H21/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-26
28-14
22-22
13-15
21-20
24-31
16-29
28-17
27-28
17-40
19-25
22-23
18-24
21-29
11-22
13-23
21-38
34-23
18-32
25-22
26-20
23-25
36-28
25-33
28-28
19-22
16-27
18-31
28-25
16-25
33-19
26-28
20-17
18-24
15-27
16-19
32-30
24-22
28-23
21-21
189.2Avg total
89.5Scored
99.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)94.3101.5195.8-7.250%
Season at home (3)92.393.3185.7-1.067%
Season away (3)96.3109.7206.0-13.333%
Last 10 (10)89.599.7189.2-10.240%
Last 5 (5)93.698.8192.4-5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)86.996.7183.6-9.830%
vs Similar (7)87.186.4173.6+0.771%
vs Weaker (3)86.7100.3187.0-13.733%
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -2.5-2.5
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -2.5-2.5
Mt GambierKeilor Thunder
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NW Tasmania
#17
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A08/07
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A15/07
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A22/07
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H04/08
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
55-36
55
36
+19
A06/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A07/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
45-52
45
52
-7
H13/04
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
54-53
54
53
+1
H14/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H19/04
NBL1 South
88.2Avg total
44.8Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.044.291.2+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.941.988.8+5.180%-
Last 30 away (15)47.146.593.5+0.640%-
Last 10 (10)44.843.488.2+1.460%-
Last 5 (5)46.643.890.4+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.035.567.5-3.550%-
vs Similar (11)48.548.697.1-0.236%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)47.842.390.1+5.576%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NW Tasmania
#17
W
57-40
57
40
+17
A07/07
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A08/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#10
L
44-68
44
68
-24
A15/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A16/07
NBL1 South
Frankston
#4
L
55-61
55
61
-6
A05/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#18
W
49-45
49
45
+4
A09/04
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#16
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A11/04
NBL1 South
Geelong
#11
L
44-50
44
50
-6
H14/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H20/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#14
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H21/04
NBL1 South
98.5Avg total
47.4Scored
51.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.448.594.0-3.137%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.544.990.3+0.640%-
Last 30 away (15)45.452.297.6-6.833%-
Last 10 (10)47.451.198.5-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)46.847.694.4-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)45.950.196.0-4.235%-
vs Similar (7)44.445.389.7-0.943%-
vs Weaker (3)44.745.390.0-0.733%-
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Mt Gambier wins
0
Keilor Thunder wins
DateGameScore
22/04/23Mt Gambier v Keilor Thunder106-82
15/05/22Keilor Thunder v Mt Gambier88-96
Mt Gambierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/04/24HNW Tasmania91-84
14/04/24HBallarat94-105
13/04/24HFrankston93-87
07/04/24AWaverley67-63
06/04/24ASandringham Sabres97-79
04/08/23HKnox63-68
22/07/23AFrankston97-96 OT
16/07/23AEltham88-95
15/07/23AWaverley83-78
08/07/23ANW Tasmania81-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/04/24HNW Tasmania105-96
20/04/24HCasey Cavaliers69-87
14/04/24HGeelong103-97
11/04/24AKilsyth81-108
09/04/24ADiamond Valley110-106
05/04/24AFrankston98-115
16/07/23ACasey Cavaliers63-98
15/07/23AGeelong85-116
08/07/23AHobart Chargers89-97
07/07/23ANW Tasmania92-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mt Gambier
NBL1 South 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%67%100%
Points / game88.492.782.0
Allowed / game83.692.071.0
Point differential+4.8+0.7+11.0
Avg total172.0184.7153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2024
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW50%
HomeWLW67%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %50%67%33%
Points / game94.392.396.3
Allowed / game101.593.3109.7
Point differential-7.2-1.0-13.3
Avg total195.8185.7206.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Eltham54180%96.077.2+18.8
2 Mt Gambier54180%88.483.6+4.8
3 Frankston64267%92.883.5+9.3
4 Hobart Chargers64267%80.779.3+1.3
5 Knox53260%95.682.6+13.0
6 Ballarat53260%97.688.0+9.6
7 Bendigo Braves53260%84.682.2+2.4
8 Nunawading53260%83.883.4+0.4
9 Dandenong74357%84.079.6+4.4
10 Ringwood74357%87.789.6-1.9
11 Geelong42250%81.583.5-2.0
12 Keilor Thunder63350%94.3101.5-7.2
13 Sandringham Sabres52340%93.889.2+4.6
14 Waverley52340%83.882.6+1.2
15 Casey Cavaliers62433%81.384.5-3.2
16 NW Tasmania62433%85.291.7-6.5
17 Melbourne Tigers62433%78.086.0-8.0
18 Kilsyth51420%77.699.0-21.4
19 Diamond Valley5050%82.4100.8-18.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Mt Gambier2426102383
Keilor Thunder2726251896
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