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Ballarat vs Melbourne Tigers Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 May 2025
Tip-off: 09:30
Final 78-103
24-24 16-22 12-29 26-28
Position#5
Record5-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game86.9
Allowed / game87.4
vs
Position#4
Record3-3
FormLWWLL
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game76.8
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Ballarat v Melbourne Tigers
10 May 2025
BALL78
MELB103
29 Jun 2024
BALL87
MELB81
01 Apr 2023
BALL92
MELB68
21 May 2022
BALL86
MELB72
20 Jul 2019
BALL78
MELB86
27 May 2017
BALL99
MELB83
31 Jul 2016
BALL118
MELB87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballarat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne Tigers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BallaratAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dandenong
#6
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H27/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
103-101
103
101
+2
A03/08
NBL1 South
Eltham
#2
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H10/08
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
109-75
109
75
+34
H29/03
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
72-98
72
98
-26
A05/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
94-88
94
88
+6
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
71-105
71
105
-34
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
100-90
100
90
+10
H03/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H04/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-23
17-17
23-12
29-26
24-32
32-22
19-21
28-26
24-12
15-20
21-32
10-15
38-24
18-19
19-16
34-16
21-24
23-21
17-25
11-28
16-28
24-21
27-12
27-27
19-22
14-14
20-23
28-19
12-22
21-32
20-24
18-27
31-23
27-21
23-22
19-24
25-18
22-12
14-21
20-27
174.2Avg total
87.2Scored
87.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)86.987.4174.3-0.671%
Season at home (3)96.781.0177.7+15.7100%
Season away (4)79.592.2171.8-12.850%
Last 10 (10)87.287.0174.2+0.270%
Last 5 (5)85.487.8173.2-2.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)81.091.3172.3-10.344%
vs Similar (7)88.785.1173.9+3.671%
vs Weaker (14)92.783.9176.6+8.879%
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne TigersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
L
81-87
81
87
-6
A29/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#1
W
91-86
91
86
+5
A06/07
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
W
88-71
88
71
+17
H11/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
W
73-71
73
71
+2
A13/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
100-69
100
69
+31
H30/03
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
77-85
77
85
-8
H04/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
78-62
78
62
+16
A08/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
89-81
89
81
+8
H13/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H24/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
85-87
85
87
-2
A04/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-21
14-22
26-21
12-23
34-29
16-16
18-17
23-24
20-25
26-12
27-18
15-16
21-16
24-27
15-12
13-16
35-8
31-22
20-18
14-21
24-19
17-27
11-17
25-22
18-26
19-15
18-11
23-10
16-15
20-24
19-21
34-21
11-23
29-27
14-7
22-20
17-22
25-19
18-21
25-25
161.4Avg total
83.8Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)84.276.8161.0+7.350%
Season at home (4)85.578.0163.5+7.550%
Season away (2)81.574.5156.0+7.050%
Last 10 (10)83.877.6161.4+6.260%
Last 5 (5)81.078.4159.4+2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)78.883.9162.6-5.143%
vs Similar (11)76.179.4155.5-3.327%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)82.874.4157.2+8.4100%
This opponent (Ballarat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.8+0.8
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.8+0.8
BallaratMelbourne Tigers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dandenong
#6
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H27/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A03/08
NBL1 South
Eltham
#2
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H10/08
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H29/03
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A05/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
33-54
33
54
-21
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H03/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H04/05
NBL1 South
87.2Avg total
44.5Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.143.188.2+1.953%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.239.486.6+7.964%-
Last 30 away (16)43.246.489.6-3.244%-
Last 10 (10)44.542.787.2+1.850%-
Last 5 (5)42.242.684.8-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)39.445.484.9-6.044%-
vs Similar (7)44.442.186.6+2.343%-
vs Weaker (14)49.042.191.1+6.964%-
This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A29/06
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#1
W
50-45
50
45
+5
A06/07
NBL1 South
Waverley
#12
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H11/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A13/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
66-30
66
30
+36
H30/03
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H04/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A08/04
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H13/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H24/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A04/05
NBL1 South
86.1Avg total
44.6Scored
41.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.441.481.9-1.037%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.842.682.5-2.818%-
Last 30 away (13)41.239.881.1+1.462%-
Last 10 (10)44.641.586.1+3.150%-
Last 5 (5)39.243.482.6-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)40.042.682.6-2.636%-
vs Similar (11)41.840.382.1+1.545%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)38.640.679.2-2.020%-
This opponent (Ballarat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Ballarat wins
4
Melbourne Tigers wins
Ballaratlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/05/25HNW Tasmania81-78
03/05/25HWaverley100-90
26/04/25AEltham71-105
12/04/25AHobart Chargers81-78
11/04/25ANW Tasmania94-88
05/04/25AGeelong72-98
29/03/25HBendigo Braves109-75
10/08/24HEltham70-79
03/08/24ASandringham Sabres103-101
27/07/24HDandenong91-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/05/25AEltham85-87
24/04/25HNunawading76-77
13/04/25HDandenong89-81
08/04/25ADiamond Valley78-62
04/04/25HKilsyth77-85
30/03/25HSandringham Sabres100-69
13/07/24ACasey Cavaliers73-71
11/07/24HWaverley88-71
06/07/24AMt Gambier91-86
29/06/24ABallarat81-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ballarat
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW71%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%100%50%
Points / game86.996.779.5
Allowed / game87.481.092.2
Point differential-0.6+15.7-12.8
Avg total174.3177.7171.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Melbourne Tigers
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL50%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game84.285.581.5
Allowed / game76.878.074.5
Point differential+7.3+7.5+7.0
Avg total161.0163.5156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%25%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox76186%93.078.3+14.7
2 Casey Cavaliers75271%85.478.9+6.6
3 Frankston75271%94.087.6+6.4
4 Ballarat75271%86.987.4-0.6
5 Mt Gambier85362%94.983.1+11.8
6 Bendigo Braves85362%88.991.2-2.4
7 Eltham74357%90.484.9+5.6
8 Melbourne Tigers63350%84.276.8+7.3
9 Kilsyth84450%80.883.0-2.2
10 Geelong84450%82.285.4-3.1
11 Nunawading84450%86.489.6-3.2
12 Waverley84450%91.495.9-4.5
13 Hobart Chargers94544%83.784.4-0.8
14 Ringwood73443%92.085.9+6.1
15 NW Tasmania83538%87.484.2+3.1
16 Diamond Valley83538%84.193.2-9.1
17 Keilor Thunder83538%84.694.6-10.0
18 Sandringham Sabres92722%83.092.2-9.2
19 Dandenong81712%86.995.4-8.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ballarat2416122678
Melbourne Tigers24222928103
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