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Ballarat vs Mt Gambier Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 24 May 2025
Tip-off: 09:30
Final 69-116
11-42 18-31 19-20 21-23
Position#5
Record6-4
FormWWLWL
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game91.5
vs
Position#2
Record7-3
FormWLLWW
Points / game94.6
Allowed / game84.4
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Ballarat v Mt Gambier
24 May 2025
BALL69
MT G116
18 Jun 2023
BALL85
MT G105
22 Apr 2017
BALL79
MT G91
06 Aug 2016
BALL89
MT G90
21 Jun 2015
BALL73
MT G91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballarat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mt Gambier winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BallaratAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
109-75
109
75
+34
H29/03
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
72-98
72
98
-26
A05/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
94-88
94
88
+6
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
71-105
71
105
-34
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
100-90
100
90
+10
H03/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H04/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
78-103
78
103
-25
H10/05
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
104-94
104
94
+10
H11/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
87-106
87
106
-19
A17/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-24
18-19
19-16
34-16
21-24
23-21
17-25
11-28
16-28
24-21
27-12
27-27
19-22
14-14
20-23
28-19
12-22
21-32
20-24
18-27
31-23
27-21
23-22
19-24
25-18
22-12
14-21
20-27
24-24
16-22
12-29
26-28
20-29
20-31
34-17
30-17
26-25
15-20
24-33
22-28
179.2Avg total
87.7Scored
91.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)87.791.5179.2-3.860%
Season at home (5)94.488.0182.4+6.480%
Season away (5)81.095.0176.0-14.040%
Last 10 (10)87.791.5179.2-3.860%
Last 5 (5)90.094.2184.2-4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)81.393.7175.0-12.536%
vs Similar (6)88.886.2175.0+2.767%
vs Weaker (13)91.983.8175.8+8.185%
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#17
W
108-58
108
58
+50
A29/03
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
100-76
100
76
+24
A30/03
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
80-81
80
81
-1
H04/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
89-64
89
64
+25
H11/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H12/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
105-73
105
73
+32
H25/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
88-118
88
118
-30
A03/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
100-115
100
115
-15
A04/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
93-91
93
91
+2
A10/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
94-88
94
88
+6
H18/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-12
26-19
23-11
27-16
28-15
24-19
27-20
21-22
26-22
13-20
19-21
22-18
17-11
26-25
21-19
25-9
25-20
26-19
21-21
17-20
17-16
30-16
27-23
31-18
20-34
30-27
9-26
29-31
25-34
27-27
26-25
22-29
23-23
28-22
30-21
12-25
37-25
16-31
17-18
24-14
179.0Avg total
94.6Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)94.684.4179.0+10.270%
Season at home (5)91.477.2168.6+14.280%
Season away (5)97.891.6189.4+6.260%
Last 10 (10)94.684.4179.0+10.270%
Last 5 (5)96.097.0193.0-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)84.283.8168.0+0.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)92.281.0173.3+11.276%
This opponent (Ballarat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +2.8+2.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: +2.8+2.8
BallaratMt Gambier
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H29/03
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A05/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A11/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A12/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
33-54
33
54
-21
A26/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H03/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H04/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H10/05
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
L
40-60
40
60
-20
H11/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A17/05
NBL1 South
88.4Avg total
43.2Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.043.787.7+0.347%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.441.386.7+4.153%-
Last 30 away (15)42.646.188.7-3.540%-
Last 10 (10)43.245.288.4-2.030%-
Last 5 (5)45.245.090.2+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)39.645.585.1-5.836%-
vs Similar (6)45.243.088.2+2.233%-
vs Weaker (13)47.242.589.7+4.662%-
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong
#17
W
58-31
58
31
+27
A29/03
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
52-34
52
34
+18
A30/03
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H04/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H11/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
51-39
51
39
+12
H12/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H25/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A03/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
52-61
52
61
-9
A04/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H18/05
NBL1 South
93.3Avg total
49.6Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.040.887.7+6.263%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.241.987.1+3.450%-
Last 30 away (14)48.939.588.4+9.479%-
Last 10 (10)49.643.793.3+5.960%-
Last 5 (5)50.651.0101.6-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)40.638.679.2+2.040%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)48.241.289.4+7.068%-
This opponent (Ballarat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Ballarat wins
7
Mt Gambier wins
DateGameScore
14/04/24Mt Gambier v Ballarat94-105
18/06/23Ballarat v Mt Gambier85-105
12/08/22Mt Gambier v Ballarat102-70
22/05/21Mt Gambier v Ballarat86-88 OT
01/07/17Mt Gambier v Ballarat100-75
22/04/17Ballarat v Mt Gambier79-91
06/08/16Ballarat v Mt Gambier89-90
29/07/16Mt Gambier v Ballarat91-79
21/06/15Ballarat v Mt Gambier73-91
Ballaratlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/05/25ASandringham Sabres87-106
11/05/25HDiamond Valley104-94
10/05/25HMelbourne Tigers78-103
04/05/25HNW Tasmania81-78
03/05/25HWaverley100-90
26/04/25AEltham71-105
12/04/25AHobart Chargers81-78
11/04/25ANW Tasmania94-88
05/04/25AGeelong72-98
29/03/25HBendigo Braves109-75
Mt Gambierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/05/25HGeelong94-88
10/05/25ACasey Cavaliers93-91
04/05/25AFrankston100-115
03/05/25ARingwood88-118
25/04/25HWaverley105-73
12/04/25HEltham89-80
11/04/25HSandringham Sabres89-64
04/04/25HCasey Cavaliers80-81
30/03/25AKeilor Thunder100-76
29/03/25AGeelong108-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ballarat
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL60%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLWWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %60%80%40%
Points / game87.794.481.0
Allowed / game91.588.095.0
Point differential-3.8+6.4-14.0
Avg total179.2182.4176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%60%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mt Gambier
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW70%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayWWLLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %70%80%60%
Points / game94.691.497.8
Allowed / game84.477.291.6
Point differential+10.2+14.2+6.2
Avg total179.0168.6189.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%40%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1110191%91.777.7+14.0
2 Mt Gambier107370%94.684.4+10.2
3 Casey Cavaliers107370%87.681.8+5.8
4 Bendigo Braves117464%89.292.2-3.0
5 Kilsyth106460%85.482.7+2.7
6 Nunawading106460%87.088.2-1.2
7 Ballarat106460%87.791.5-3.8
8 Melbourne Tigers95456%86.378.4+7.9
9 Frankston116555%91.387.5+3.8
10 Hobart Chargers116555%84.681.4+3.3
11 Eltham105550%86.787.6-0.9
12 Waverley104640%89.193.7-4.6
13 Geelong104640%82.287.4-5.2
14 Keilor Thunder104640%82.190.2-8.1
15 NW Tasmania103730%85.984.8+1.1
16 Sandringham Sabres103730%85.391.7-6.4
17 Diamond Valley103730%85.595.4-9.9
18 Ringwood113827%90.589.3+1.2
19 Dandenong102820%86.394.3-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ballarat1118192169
Mt Gambier42312023116
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